Weak Growth Triggers The Expansion Of The Yuan'S Volatility

< p > the current "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "RMB > /a" devaluation trend may support exports; a certain scale of capital outflow will drain domestic liquidity, which opens the window for the central bank to reduce the deposit reserve ratio.

Morgan's chief economist, J.P. Zhu Haibin, believes that the first is to release the signal that the reform process will not be easily abandoned even though the economic data are weak. Two, although the RMB spot exchange rate loosening has little effect on the direct connection of the real economy, it may stabilize the growth expectation to a certain extent.

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< p > he said in his latest research report that there are two necessary conditions to relax the fluctuation rate of the spot exchange rate of the renminbi. First, we need to close the spot exchange rate to the central parity of RMB, which has been satisfied in recent weeks.

In the past two weeks, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is only 0.16% higher than that of the central parity of RMB.

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< p > another condition is the relative balance of capital flows.

Zhu Haibin believes that the current capital inflow has been greatly reduced, because the renminbi has continued to depreciate, and the phenomenon of "fake exports" has basically disappeared in February, which can be seen from the export figures which were lower than expected in February and the trend of the renminbi in recent weeks.

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< p > even though the conditions are already available, the time for easing the fluctuation rate of RMB spot exchange rate compared with the previous year is still surprising in Zhu Haibin's view. This year there may be only a very short observation period before taking action this year. "This may be triggered by weaker than expected economic data in the first two months".

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< p > he analyzed that the weak economic data meant that it was unlikely to see a sustained appreciation of the RMB and massive capital inflow after a period of expansion.

The depreciation of the renminbi may support exports. In fact, the RMB exchange rate has dropped and there are signs of capital outflow.

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< p > Zhu Haibin said that a certain scale of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > capital < /a > outflow will drain domestic liquidity, which opens the window for the central bank to reduce the deposit reserve ratio.

From the point of view of the central bank, it is more neutral to reduce liquidity to make up for liquidity rather than to stimulate the economy.

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At the same time, he also believes that the probability of lowering the deposit reserve ratio is very low in the short term, because it will damage the efforts of the central bank to make money and credit return to normal and deal with financial imbalances before P.

Moreover, lowering the deposit reserve ratio and credit expansion will deepen structural imbalance.

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"P", he cautioned, should be noted that interbank offered rate has declined significantly recently, and this trend may continue in the short term, which may reduce the real interest rate of the real economy.

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< p > Zhu Haibin predicted that in the recent period, the RMB will remain basically stable, but it does not think that the RMB will turn to devaluation. It is estimated that the RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > /a > will reach 5.95 < /p at the end of this year.