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Analyze The Trend Of RMB Exchange Rate And Cross-Border Capital In The Next Stage.
< p > < strong > (1) RMB < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > exchange rate < /a >: short-term two-way fluctuation, medium and long term slight appreciation < /strong > /p >
< p > expanding the RMB exchange rate volatility is an institutional arrangement to enhance the two-way floating elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, which is not directly related to the rise or fall of the RMB exchange rate. The change of the RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the supply and demand of foreign exchange based on the balance of payments. With the advance of the reform mechanism of exchange rate marketization, the future RMB will be the same as the major international currencies. Therefore, the expansion of the daytime fluctuation will not affect the direction or trend of the RMB exchange rate. < /p >
< p > first, from the domestic perspective, the realization of the soft landing of the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > China's economy < /a > will ultimately determine the RMB exchange rate trend. China's macroeconomic data showed weakness in the one or two months of this year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption and import and export have all come down, which has become an important reason for the recent devaluation of the RMB. At present, the domestic economy is faced with greater difficulties and challenges. The government will increase its investment in the protection of housing and shanty towns, and infrastructure projects in the central and western regions, so as to achieve the goal of short-term steady growth and long-term structural adjustment. At the same time, we will pay more attention to releasing the dividends of reform to untie enterprises, give play to the enthusiasm of private capital, vigorously develop the service industry, and promote the spanformation of economic structure. We expect GDP growth to pick up in the first three quarters, down in the fourth quarter. The RMB exchange rate will also show a more consistent trend along with the macroeconomic trend. Secondly, from abroad, the pace of the withdrawal of the QE from the US Federal Reserve will affect the trend of the RMB exchange rate. Although the US withdrawal from the QE will continue, the recent instability in the US employment data has increased the uncertainty of its withdrawal from the QE rhythm. In the future, the US dollar trend is also facing some uncertainty, which will increase the volatility of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent. < /p >
< p > outlook for the medium and long term, from the economic fundamentals, under the background of macroeconomic regulation and control bottom line thinking, the economic downward pressure brought by active reform is basically controllable. China's economy will generally run smoothly, and the mild recovery of world economy is also conducive to the recovery of export trade and provide strong backing for the RMB exchange rate. From the perspective of policy needs, the RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization need to maintain a relatively strong RMB value, and the central bank will also maintain the necessary regulatory management of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate slightly in the medium and long term. < /p >
< p > strong > (two) < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cross-border capital < /a >: arbitrage demand declined, cross border capital inflow slowed down < /strong > /p >
Since last year, the foreign exchange bureau and the customs and Excise Department have severely cracked down on the false trade, and the cross-border trade flows in the special regulatory areas have been reduced. P The fluctuation of exchange rate day and the uncertainty of RMB's short-term trend will make arbitrage funds face larger exchange rate risk exposure, arbitrage difficulty will increase, and lock in exchange rate risk will lead to lower arbitrage profit, and arbitrage capital inflow will be further slowed down. < /p >
< p > in addition to the weakening of arbitrage demand, there will also be a cautious exchange of funds in real trading background, and no rush to settle foreign exchange will lead to a further decline in foreign exchange holdings. The increase in foreign exchange in February was much lower than in January, and it is expected to further decline in March. At present, the domestic economic environment is similar to and faced with greater challenges in April 2012. When the fluctuation of exchange rate was widened, foreign exchange holdings continued to decrease. The sharp slowdown in the growth of foreign exchange will increase the operating space of the central bank's monetary policy, and the intensity of monetary issuance will decline. < /p >
< p > expanding the RMB exchange rate volatility is an institutional arrangement to enhance the two-way floating elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, which is not directly related to the rise or fall of the RMB exchange rate. The change of the RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the supply and demand of foreign exchange based on the balance of payments. With the advance of the reform mechanism of exchange rate marketization, the future RMB will be the same as the major international currencies. Therefore, the expansion of the daytime fluctuation will not affect the direction or trend of the RMB exchange rate. < /p >
< p > first, from the domestic perspective, the realization of the soft landing of the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > China's economy < /a > will ultimately determine the RMB exchange rate trend. China's macroeconomic data showed weakness in the one or two months of this year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption and import and export have all come down, which has become an important reason for the recent devaluation of the RMB. At present, the domestic economy is faced with greater difficulties and challenges. The government will increase its investment in the protection of housing and shanty towns, and infrastructure projects in the central and western regions, so as to achieve the goal of short-term steady growth and long-term structural adjustment. At the same time, we will pay more attention to releasing the dividends of reform to untie enterprises, give play to the enthusiasm of private capital, vigorously develop the service industry, and promote the spanformation of economic structure. We expect GDP growth to pick up in the first three quarters, down in the fourth quarter. The RMB exchange rate will also show a more consistent trend along with the macroeconomic trend. Secondly, from abroad, the pace of the withdrawal of the QE from the US Federal Reserve will affect the trend of the RMB exchange rate. Although the US withdrawal from the QE will continue, the recent instability in the US employment data has increased the uncertainty of its withdrawal from the QE rhythm. In the future, the US dollar trend is also facing some uncertainty, which will increase the volatility of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent. < /p >
< p > outlook for the medium and long term, from the economic fundamentals, under the background of macroeconomic regulation and control bottom line thinking, the economic downward pressure brought by active reform is basically controllable. China's economy will generally run smoothly, and the mild recovery of world economy is also conducive to the recovery of export trade and provide strong backing for the RMB exchange rate. From the perspective of policy needs, the RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization need to maintain a relatively strong RMB value, and the central bank will also maintain the necessary regulatory management of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate slightly in the medium and long term. < /p >
< p > strong > (two) < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cross-border capital < /a >: arbitrage demand declined, cross border capital inflow slowed down < /strong > /p >
Since last year, the foreign exchange bureau and the customs and Excise Department have severely cracked down on the false trade, and the cross-border trade flows in the special regulatory areas have been reduced. P The fluctuation of exchange rate day and the uncertainty of RMB's short-term trend will make arbitrage funds face larger exchange rate risk exposure, arbitrage difficulty will increase, and lock in exchange rate risk will lead to lower arbitrage profit, and arbitrage capital inflow will be further slowed down. < /p >
< p > in addition to the weakening of arbitrage demand, there will also be a cautious exchange of funds in real trading background, and no rush to settle foreign exchange will lead to a further decline in foreign exchange holdings. The increase in foreign exchange in February was much lower than in January, and it is expected to further decline in March. At present, the domestic economic environment is similar to and faced with greater challenges in April 2012. When the fluctuation of exchange rate was widened, foreign exchange holdings continued to decrease. The sharp slowdown in the growth of foreign exchange will increase the operating space of the central bank's monetary policy, and the intensity of monetary issuance will decline. < /p >
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2014/3/27 16:28:00
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