RMB Spot Exchange Rate Depreciated In The First Quarter Of 2.64%

< p > according to statistics, in the first quarter, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar slipped to 6.2180 from 6.05392013 in December 31st, down 1641 basis points, and depreciated by 2.64%.

This data is close to the appreciation rate of RMB spot exchange rate of 2.9% in 2013.

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< p > after a quarterly devaluation shock, the market is expected to differentiate the RMB trend.

In March 17th, the people's Bank of China's camera announced that it would expand the intra day volatility of the RMB against the US dollar to 2%, and further develop the RMB exchange rate market mechanism.

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< p > the depreciation of the first quarter of this year is the largest and longest cycle of RMB exchange rate experienced since the reform, which has greatly changed the market's expectation of exchange rate trend.

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At the beginning of the P, the market generally believed that the devaluation of the RMB was the influx of arbitrage funds by the central bank. Therefore, although the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB was weakened, the market still regarded the appreciation of the RMB as the dominant trend.

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P > this expectation was reversed in March 7th. On the day of the first single default in the Chinese bond market, the commodity market began to appear on a large scale flat plate, the RMB exchange rate suffered a setback, the intra day decline reached 0.12%, the market panic began to ferment; at the same time, the market was surprised that the central bank had not taken obvious market measures, the middle price of March 8th was very "respect the market", and even further dropped to 6.1312. The central bank's clear "follow the market" attitude completely split the market expectations of RMB, and the tolerance of the central bank to the depreciation of the RMB is obviously more than the market expectations.

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< p > market analysts believe that this round of depreciation is due to the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "central bank regulation" /a ", which aims to block the large influx of arbitrage funds, while breaking the long-standing unilateral appreciation expectations which are difficult to be eliminated in the market, providing conditions for further expanding the intra day volatility of the RMB against the US dollar and promoting the formation of the RMB exchange rate market mechanism.

In mid March, the central bank announced that the intraday volatility of the RMB against the US dollar expanded from 1% to 2%, which is the third expansion of the RMB exchange rate range after the central bank in 2007 and 2012. The expansion of the volatility means that the RMB exchange rate will be further enhanced and the floating exchange rate system will be further established based on market supply and demand.

In addition, some people believe that under the background of China's economic weakness, the proper downward trend of RMB will also help stimulate China's exports, which will contribute to China's export sector more or less.

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< p > if the expansion is the institutional construction that the central bank needs to achieve, the differentiation of RMB appreciation is a more important market psychological construction for the central bank.

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The expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB P has been plaguing the regulatory authorities. The exchange rate and the domestic and foreign spreads caused by the continued appreciation of the renminbi have continued to attract overseas capital to enter through various channels, and the unilateral market has greatly restricted the independence of the central bank's monetary policy.

For a long time, the continued increase of foreign exchange has become an important channel for issuing "Chinese style" currency, limiting the operating space of monetary policy, and even damaging the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy of the central bank.

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< p > through the current round of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > devaluation < /a >, the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB in the market has been divided now.

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A survey conducted by Nomura Securities showed that 67% of the respondents believed that the renminbi continued to weaken in the next three months. The main point was that money market and corporate groups were in the market. Another 33% thought that the renminbi would appreciate in the next 3 months. Most of them, mainly Asian banks, European and North American hedge funds, believed that the Chinese government had already completed its aim of reducing speculative positions in P.

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< p > the effect of the current round of devaluation on stimulating exports and blocking hot money is more direct: since the depreciation of the renminbi, foreign trade dealers have indicated that orders have increased, but the specific export data need to wait until March.

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< p > the effect of blocking the hot money can be seen through the market financing flat. As early as the beginning of March, the grass-roots survey of China Merchants Bank has shown that there has been a loss of arbitrage.

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The two-way fluctuation of p a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > exchange rate has been achieved within one quarter. Although it is further advancing the marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the exchange rate risk arising from it needs more relevant RMB derivatives to lock in.

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Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the finance and Economic Commission of the people's Congress and former vice governor of the people's Bank of China, said in a high-level forum on China's development recently: "the RMB has entered a stage of two-way fluctuation, and all enterprises and banks should have the awareness of locking risks, so we should better use hedging tools."

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< p > except for hedging, some enterprises' assets and liabilities need to be adjusted accordingly. In the era of unilateral appreciation of the RMB, many enterprises prefer the "asset localization and debt denominated" mode from a financial point of view, but the two-way fluctuation of RMB will bring greater challenges to the financial management of enterprises.

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< p > but from another point of view, two-way fluctuation is a real market, which is conducive to finding reasonable prices and more conducive to the optimal allocation of domestic and foreign resources.

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