Ai Tuosi: Yellen's Pigeon Pie Remark, Gold And Silver Rising Is Not Easy.

< p > the current market is widely expected that the non-agricultural data released by the United States on Friday (April 4th) will be better than expected. The expected rise of the Federal Reserve's early withdrawal from QE and interest rate rises will result in a slight decline in gold prices within the day and the first monthly decline this year.

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The monthly report released on Monday by the London p a href= http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp and the gold and silver Market Association showed that the average daily volume of gold between the LBMA members increased by 6.1% in February 2014 compared with January. The average daily volume of silver trading increased by 28.4% compared with January. The average price of gold and silver rose by 4.5% and 4.6% respectively in February this year.

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< p > data show that total gold trading volume increased to 17 million 800 thousand ounces / day in January from 16 million 800 thousand ounces / day in February, trading volume rose 11.2% to $23 billion 200 million, and average daily turnover increased by nearly 20% to 4503, with the average number of ounces pferred down to 11% to 3961 oz.

Total silver trading volume increased from 144 million 700 thousand ounces / days in January to 185 million 700 thousand ounces / day in February, a two-year high; trading volume rose more than 34% to $38 billion 700 million; average daily turnover increased by 23.7% to 907, with an average of 204857 ounces per pfer.

At the same time, compared with the same period in 2013, the average daily volume of gold in February this year dropped 14%, and the average daily volume of silver increased by 52% over the same period last year.

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P, a well-known investment bank, wrote in a report on Monday that the price of gold is likely to decline in the three quarter of this year.

Merrill Lynch estimated that the average price of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Gold < /a > in the two quarter of 2014 will be estimated at $1350 / ounce, but the gold price in the three quarter is expected to fall to 1250 US dollars / ounce.

Although the weakness of emerging markets can still be a positive factor for the rise in gold prices, the downward pressure on prices in the three quarter came mainly from the acceleration of the recovery of the US economic recovery, pushing the US dollar strong and eventually reducing the price of gold to US $1250.

It said that if the US economic data continue to weaken in the next few weeks, gold prices will continue to stabilize or rise under the support of current favorable factors.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch added that although the three quarter of the gold price will be revised underground slip, but the next two quarters will gradually rebound.

It expects the average gold price in the fourth quarter of 2014 to be $1300, and will rise to $1350 / ounce in the first quarter of 2015.

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Mark Leibovit, editor of < p > VR Gold Letter, thinks gold may have bottomed out, but it will still look at the trend of trading.

If it falls below 1288 US dollars / ounce, it is possible to test the low point of US $1180 / ounce in the next few months.

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"It is hard to imagine that investors who see more after breaking through 1280 will disappear," said Christopher Lewis, a FXEMPIRE analyst at overseas renowned technology analyst P.

If long-term investors want to enter the market, then 1280 will be their concern.

Lewis claims that if gold prices recapture the 1300 pass, prices will continue to rebound, but we have already predicted that there will be shocks and recurrations.

Even if the Japanese chart level has recovered the 1300 pass, we will still encounter resistance in 1320, but eventually we will recover.

The recent sharp pullback is just a callback.

The real resistance of gold is 1400.

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OleHansen, Chief Commodities strategist of Shengbao bank, wrote in a report on Monday that due to the recent decline in Ukraine's demand for gold, the demand for gold in China was limited, and the Fed implied that it would raise interest rates next year, there were varying degrees of callbacks in the last week's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news /index_c.asp" > Gold < /a > and silver prices, which led to a decrease in ETP holdings. P

In March 28th, gold and silver ETP holdings decreased slightly.

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Catherine Raw, manager of BlackRock global mining trust, said in a media interview on Monday that gold prices will continue to oscillate in a certain range for the rest of the year, following the 28% drop in international gold prices in 2013, but the final price will remain stable for the rest of the year. P

Raw believes that the gold market is undergoing important changes, such as the sell-off frequency of the gold futures market in the fourth quarter of last year has obviously slowed down, and the situation of gold ETF outflow is improving gradually.

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< p > Raw stressed that there has been a large inflow of gold ETF positions this year, but the inflow has begun to decline. This is mainly because the movements of the marginal buyers and sellers in the futures market do not affect the average price, but the price of the day, thus creating the fluctuation of the gold price.

The fluctuation of gold prices since the beginning of this year is caused by the marginal buyers and sellers in the futures market.

Raw believes that the price of gold will oscillate between $1250-1350 for the rest of the year, or eventually stabilize near a price.

However, some risk events, such as the Ukraine crisis, will stimulate the risk premium, when investors will buy gold because of risk aversion, leading to a larger fluctuation in gold prices.

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< p > recently, the India government's expectation of relaxing gold import control is spreading rapidly, and the domestic gold premium has begun to decrease significantly.

On Monday, India finance minister P.Chidambaram said at a press conference that the India government will consider negotiating with India central bank [micro-blog] about relaxing the import control of gold.

However, too strict gold import control in India has caused domestic gold suppliers to complain incessantly. It has also led to a sharp increase in the number of gold smuggling. Under the strong demand of many parties, the India government has recently allowed five private banks in the country to import gold.

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< p > by the week of March 28, 2014, the world's 8 largest gold ETFs holdings amounted to 1325.925 tons, unchanged from the previous week.

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In March 31st, the New York Mercantile Exchange ended June 2014 with a gold futures price of 1284.9 US dollars, down 11.2 US dollars, or 0.86%, with a turnover of 126934, an open position of 234079 in March 28th and a 6617 increase in P.

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< p > < strong > Technical Analysis: < /strong > < /p >

< p > the spot gold day K-line chart, the overnight gold price terminated collation upward trend, once again under pressure down to below 1290 U.S. dollars, the recent or upward pressure is blocked; the gold price within the day is supported by the golden section line 61.8, or the support power is weak.

The 10 day moving average goes through three other multi day moving average lines, the other moving average or the downward trend. The MACD index goes through the zero axis under two lines, and keeps the space width, the fast line is close to the oversold area, and the blue kinetic energy column is stable.

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< p > < strong > XAG/USD < /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > basic analysis: < /strong > < /p >.

< p > Silver fell on Monday, as the US economic data released in the near term continued to strengthen, making the Federal Reserve further reduce the expected temperature rise of QE and advance interest rates.

However, due to the US Federal Reserve's manufacturing data released in March, the silver price was reduced in March.

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< p > the data released by the European Union Statistics Bureau on Monday showed that the initial value of the euro area in March reconciled with the consumer price index increased by 0.5%, less than the expected growth rate of 0.6%, the lowest since 2009.

For the euro bank interest rate resolution to be held on Thursday, CPI's falling again means a sharp rise in the possibility of falling or negative interest rates.

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< p > the Dallas fed issued a report on Monday that the US Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index of Dallas in March was 4.9 and 0.3 in February.

The index is higher than zero, indicating that the manufacturing sector is expanding, and less than zero means that the manufacturing sector is shrinking.

In March, the US Federal Reserve utilization index of Dallas was 13.1, and its former value was 9.1.

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Data released by the Chicago branch of the US Supply Management Association (P) show that the expansion of business activities in the Midwest of the US slowed in March, the lowest since August last March.

The US Chicago PMI dropped to 55.9 in March, with a forecast value of 59, with a value of 59.8.

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< p > iShares silver ETF3 28 silver holds 326803953.400 ounces, or 10164.74 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

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< p > March 31st the New York Mercantile Exchange ended May 2014 with an offer of $19.77, a turnover of 31406, an open position of 93969 in March 28th and an increase of 152 in unliquidated contracts.

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< p > < strong > Technical Analysis: < /strong > < /p >

< p > Silver day K-line chart, overnight silver prices again fell slightly, the trend continued to postpone the downward track operation on the track; the golden section line within the day 28.6 strong resistance, the market outlook or continued to fall.

The average daily line will be diversified.

The MACD index is above or tends to cross over the double line oversold area, and the blue kinetic energy column is reduced or exhausted.

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