Three Heavy Clouds In The Stock Market To Curb The Three Predicament Faced By 2000 Points

March 12th market After a short period of bottoming, a round of rebound occurred, but the rebound process was not smooth. At present, the market is faced with three difficulties: first, the hot spots switch back and forth in the cycle and emerging sectors, and the sustainability is not strong; two, the steady growth expectation presents a marginal diminishing trend for the market's boosting effect; three, the heavyweight pulse is frequent, but has not formed the resultant force. Analysts pointed out that from the two quarter of the market environment, the policy and financial aspects of the uncertainties are relatively large, the "difficulties" conditions are not yet available in the short term, the market rebound will be pressure.

Three weak predicament of market rebound

In the early March, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell sharply, and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 1974.38 points in the middle of the month, reaching a new low. After that, the Shanghai composite index went out of a low rebound. During the period, the single day rose to 2.72%. However, the recent rebound in the market has obviously weakened. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.74%, closing at 2043.70 points, Shenzhen index fell 0.49%, closed at 7298 points, compared with the small cap index relatively lower, small and medium board composite index rose 0.21%, closed at 1299.72 points, the gem index fell 0.14%, at 1326.18 points. It is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index has been around 60 day moving average continuous concussion 9 trading days, short-term market rebound has bottlenecks.

From the perspective of the operation of A shares, the market is facing three difficulties, showing that the foundation of the current stock index rebound is not reliable. First, hot spots are in cycles and emerging industries. plate Switching between the back and forth, the continuity is not strong. In the early stage of the rebound, the theme investment, represented by the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Shenzhen Qianhai New District and Shanghai free trade area, is popular, and has a remarkable effect on the promotion of periodicity plates such as ports, logistics and real estate. However, the theme of new industries such as green lighting, sapphire and online lottery began to rise, and the theme investment dropped. In the stock capital dominated market, hot spots continue to switch between the two cycles and new emerging sectors, bringing the frequent outflow of capital into the capital, and the attrition of funds is not conducive to market rebound.

Second, the expected growth rate of steady growth is showing a marginal diminishing trend. In the first two months of 2014, investment in fixed assets, total retail sales and foreign trade data fell sharply year by year, but this improved investors' expectations for steady growth policy, which is also an important driving force for the current stage of the rally. However, on Wednesday, the executive meeting of the State Council was held. When the policy of steady growth is likely to come out, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will fall back. This may mean that the expected growth effect of the steady growth is showing a marginal diminishing trend.

Finally, the heavyweight pulse is frequent, but no resultant force has been formed. The heavyweights, represented by finance and real estate, have multiple pulses in the current round of rebound, which is significant for the uplift of the market. However, it is worth noting that when the real estate and banks are strong, the securities and oil shares are weaker. Yesterday, when brokerage stocks and oil shares rose, real estate and banks fell sharply, and the heavyweights had never been able to form more joint forces, which would to some extent limit the height of the rally.

The term "difficulty relief" is not yet available.

To solve these three dilemmas, we need the cooperation of policy and capital, and the two are indispensable. However, judging from the market environment of the two quarter, the uncertainties in these two areas are relatively large, and the conditions for "solving difficulties" are not yet available.

First, the time for liquidity easing is in the past. In the stock capital dominated market, the probability of "short-term rise" and the "two rise" of emerging new sectors is not large. From the outside, the central bank [micro-blog] continued to withdraw funds and increased operation. Yesterday, the central bank launched a 28 day repo of 40 billion yuan, 14 days of repo 50 billion yuan, and accumulated a total of 90 billion yuan of funds. From the inside, it is likely that IPO will restart in April, and the market will face the impact of capital diversion. After the IPO restart in January, there will be a sharp decline in the market. After the current IPO restart, the pressure on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets may be increasing. Market participants pointed out that, on the one hand, the number of listed companies may be more, and the amount of frozen funds is larger. On the other hand, the organization will prepare funds to participate in the placing under the network. The cancellation of the upper limit of effective quotas will increase the number of effective quotations. Under the premise of no big change in the investors' enquiry funds under the unit network, the freezing of funds under the network may rise more than before.

Secondly, based on policy There is a risk that the market rebound of expected game will not be realized. The downward trend of economic data and the depreciation of RMB (6.2111, 0.0004, 0.01%) have a certain negative impact on the stock market, but this improves investors' expectations for the underpinning policy. However, some market participants say that the trend of China's economic capital return rate has already been formed, and the potential growth rate may be down in the future. Even if there is a steady growth policy, the magnitude is far from the intensity of the 2009 policy, and the direction may not be the overall situation. It is a partial or directional steady growth. This may be a partial support of a structural transformation, so the driving effect of "steady growth" is limited. The short-term underpinning policy is expected to enhance investor participation, but once the policy is less than expected, it will lead to greater selling pressure.