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    Ye Tan: Toxic A Shares Make People Of Normal Values "Martyrs".

    2011/10/26 14:21:00 31


    China equity market People who are obsessed with the relationship between supply and demand are often blamed. financing Refinancing and currency Tightening up is not a problem. China's stock market is not short of money, and lacks good companies that can bring rewards.


    People may refute the profits of bank shares, but they forget that the amount of financing and refinancing of bank shares is far more than that of dividends, and most of the dividends have entered the pockets of major shareholders such as Huijin. PetroChina, Sinopec and other big Mac companies have matured, and the valuation of A shares is so high that Chinese oil investors have made a self mockery of stocks as a pass to Jiabao. It seems that PetroChina A shares, like private banknotes, have only commemorative significance.


    In the long run, China's currency circulation exceeds the economic growth rate, bank deposits reach more than 70 trillion yuan, and high-end investment goods such as art shares blossom everywhere. Since the currency issue system was mainly made up of foreign exchange, lack of money has never been the problem of China's economy. On the contrary, too much inflation or excessive stagflation pressure is a real problem.


    Financing and refinancing are not the same problem, and only financing is a problem. According to the SFC statistics, the total financing of the A share market reached 1 trillion and 30 billion yuan last year, up 123% from the 460 billion 954 million yuan in 2009, making it the largest market in the world. As of August 18th this year, the total amount of securities issuance and financing of Shenzhen and Shanghai two cities amounted to 593 billion 617 million yuan, and the global market share of bear and bear market was once again the highest in the world. The number of listed companies has soared to 2530, and it is expected to surpass the US in the short term.


    If a listed company gets 1 billion yuan in the market, its profits will grow steadily at a rate of more than 10% or even more than 15% annually, and give investors a good return. Such a company is by no means a company that draws blood, but a panda company that investors regard as the most precious. Just imagine, if China's banking listed companies are HSBC 20 years ago in the Chinese market of Hongkong, how can investors condemn money?


    Like the real estate investment market, the securities market is not looking at supply and demand, but risk and return. Looking at money supply, looking at the number of listed companies, or simply looking at the profits of enterprises, may lead investors astray. Especially in the A share market, profits of some companies are rising steadily, and share prices are moving back. Why is the bank stock floor price untaken over? Because the performance of bank stocks is good, the way of refinancing and replenish capital will not change. The biggest achievement of ordinary investors is to watch the half year report laughing bitterly. Looking at Sinopec, the net profit of 40 billion yuan a year is really wonderful. But its financial actions are worrying. A company with monopolistic pricing power and thousands of pet companies is extremely short of money. Last year, Sinopec report card net profit lower than PetroChina, the growth rate is far less than CNOOC, a big sum of 15 billion 400 million yuan asset impairment losses, like a big bath, for future performance foreshadowing.


    The financial data is very impressive, but the company's profits are very high, but it keeps issuing bonds. Its 30 billion yuan convertible bond plan is considered to be the culprit of the 8 month end of the convertible bond market collapse. In March of this year, Sinopec has just issued 23 billion yuan convertible bonds, and the practice of repaying old debts with new debts shows that this enterprise is extremely hungry and capital, which means that financing is shameless. The valuation of convertible bonds has continued to reach the level of 2003, and these companies clearly believe that convertible bonds are low interest equity financing, which does not require cost at all. The coexistence of rising profits and capital hunger is a true portrayal of most companies. So long as the stock market is slightly better, the privatization, merger and reorganization, and resource expansion of these listed companies will not stop. You will give him the Jinshan of the whole world, and he will still ask you for money, which is called refinancing.


    The A share market shows what is called bad money and drives good money. Regulators have connive at the speculation of market players. Ms. He Wannan confirmed by data that ST shares are the phoenix of A shares. Since the termination of *ST friendship in May 2007, no more junk stocks have been delisted in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market for more than 4 years, during which the number of listed companies has increased by more than 700. Regulators are getting out of the new deal. The more frenzied ST shares, the higher the ST shares have been. Since April 18th this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a high level of 3067 points, closing to close at 20% at the 2470 low point of September 7th, during which 328 stocks rose, accounting for about 14% of the total listed stocks, of which the shares accounted for 35, and the proportion in the ST group was about 40%. There is no reason why the new rules of backdoor actually raise the premium of ST shares. Backdoor listing, so that the new listed companies are nowhere near, even the awesome scenery is still popular with PE. If one day, the phenomenon of short selling of China's concept stocks takes place in mainland China, and investors will have reason to applaud the future.


    With so many problems, the institutional problems have not been improved, and western technological means have been used repeatedly. If Yan Qingmin, assistant chairman of the CBRC in September 15th, said that the future bad loans may rebound. Commercial banks also face liquidity and capital adequacy pressures. The CBRC is now studying the joint central bank, reporting to the State Council, carrying out a precondition of asset securitization, in order to open a way out for commercial banks under the background of normalization of monetary policy. A market with a bad credit rating and a credit rating equal to zero should be securitized. The idea of investing in the A share market is to blame, because the toxic market has made most of the people who have normal values become martyrs.
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