Zhou Xiaochuan: This Year'S Surplus Is Expected To Be About 4% Compared With GDP.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said on 24 th that China Economics Structural adjustment has been significant. Progress 。 He also predicted that China's current account surplus would be about 4% of GDP in 2011.

Zhou Xiaochuan made the above remarks in a speech entitled "balance of payments movements and adjustment process" in a forum on the same day. Zhou Xiaochuan said that the balance of payments is an important observation of our country's own economic structure adjustment. index 。

China is in the process of economic restructuring, and this process will take some time. Zhou Xiaochuan said that the most significant change occurred in the last ten years from the trend of China's balance of payments in the past 30 years. Over the past ten years, China's trade surplus has increased significantly, and foreign direct investment (FDI) has been very strong.

"From the total balance of payments, namely the total current account and capital account, China's international balance of payments has a larger surplus this year." Zhou Xiaochuan said.

However, the ratio of China's current account to GDP reached its peak in 2007 and 2008, about 10%, then decreased, and dropped to 5.2% in 2010. In the first half of 2011, it dropped to 2.8%.

Zhou Xiaochuan also said that China's capacity has obviously begun to slow down in the manufacturing sector. Production factors such as labour force are not concentrated in the manufacturing industry in the past, but concentrated in the construction and service industries. In the new investment, the proportion of manufacturing industry is getting lower and lower. For example, in the "four trillion" stimulus plan, there is basically no industrial investment and manufacturing investment.

In terms of loans from the financial sector, the proportion of new loans that banks make to the processing industry in the new loans is now "one digit", not half or more than in the past.

In addition, foreign direct investment has formed a large number of manufacturing capacity in China, and exports to exports. But now foreign direct investment has invested nearly fifty percent in the service sector.

"This is also quite a big change. These changes indicate that our capacity layout is changing in all areas." Zhou Xiaochuan said. With this change, China's balance of payments will become healthier and more balanced. The value-added rate of processing trade also indicates that the manufacturing industry is changing.

In view of the limited time, Zhou Xiaochuan did not discuss the interrelated topics of the trend of the balance of payments and the macro policy, but put forward the timing of the "going out" of the renminbi. He said that from the perspective of the distribution of resources, it is possible to shift foreign exchange more to the public. At the same time, he said, "the so-called" remittance to the people "is not that the people hide their foreign exchange in their own hands, but that they decide to apply them to channels including investment.
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