RMB Depreciation Helps QDII Net Value Rise

Ms. P, who has been stuck in the QDII fund for more than 6 years, recently learned that the beneficiaries of the devaluation of the renminbi still have QDII funds.

"I am 7 cents to go to the bottom of QDII, I did not expect the lowest drop to 50 Fen! Really, there are eighteen layers below the Inferno!" Ms. Zhang said that since this year, her QDII fund has been hovering at 6 cents.

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< p > but from a professional point of view, the continuous depreciation of the renminbi has a positive impact on the QDII fund.

Because the QDII fund needs to be exchanged for foreign currency in the investment process, and the valuation and settlement need to be exchanged for RMB. Therefore, the foreign exchange gains and losses in the QDII investment period will be included in the final investment income of the QDII fund.

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< p > therefore, once RMB enters a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > devaluation < /a > channel, it will play a positive role in stabilizing or increasing QDII earnings.

In other words, the depreciation of the renminbi will directly lead to an increase in the net value of the QDII fund denominated in Renminbi.

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< p > a fund analyst in Shanghai gave reporters such an account: at the end of January this year, the exchange rate of US dollar to RMB was 6.06; in the beginning of February, the US dollar rose continuously to RMB, of which, the highest in February 28th reached 6.1808, closing at 6.145, an increase of 1.4% over the end of last month.

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< p > the analyst said that the vast majority of QDII in China invested in < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > HK $< /a > or a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > US dollar < /a > assets.

In February, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar basically remained unchanged. Therefore, the change in the RMB exchange rate in February drove the QDII net value to rise by about 1.4%.

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< p > in February this year, the net growth rate of QDII fund was 4.27%. The analyst reckon that the price of the products invested by QDII will contribute about 2.8% of its net value after deducting the factor of RMB exchange rate fluctuation.

But in January of this year, the QDII fund fell by an average of 3.58%.

"If the depreciation of the RMB helped QDII a great deal, the net value of the QDII fund in the first two months should be a loss."

The analyst said.

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< p > related links: < /p >

After the announcement of foreign trade data in March P, the market generally reflected that exports were not as good as expected.

Data from the General Administration of Customs show that in March, China's import and export value decreased by 9% compared with the same period last year, of which exports decreased by 6.6% compared with the same period last year, while imports dropped 11.3% compared with the same period last month, and the trade surplus of that month was 7 billion 710 million US dollars.

Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities, said that the high base in the same period last year was the main reason for the negative growth of exports in March.

As imports fell more than exports, the balance of trade in March was reversed by trade surplus.

The domestic trade balance has obvious seasonality, and the trade surplus in February is the lowest in the whole year. The 3-4 month will gradually return to the mean.

The low trade balance will help to improve the expected stability of the RMB exchange rate.

At the present time, the RMB exchange rate does not have the condition of long-term depreciation.

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P, chief economist of Communications Bank, thinks that China's exports account for about 10% of the world's exports. This is the embodiment of the overall strength and is hard to lose overnight.

In the coming period, China's trade surplus will still reach a certain scale.

On the other hand, in the next three to five years, China's economic growth is likely to remain in the range of 7% to 8%. Under the keynote of prudent monetary policy, interest rates will remain at a high level, while foreign exchange reserves will move forward to 4 trillion US dollars, and the surplus of capital and financial accounts will hardly change.

Therefore, it is difficult for RMB to have a trend of devaluation.

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< p > although the RMB exchange rate will not depreciate greatly from the long-term trend, the two-way fluctuation will be greatly increased.

This will have a certain impact on the settlement of foreign exchange.

The Research Report of Shenyin Wanguo believes that with the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB being broken, the enthusiasm of enterprises and banks will weaken, and the amount of long-term net settlement will also decline.

And the risk of hot money arbitrage will also increase significantly.

The gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed countries will reduce the spread between China and abroad, which will reduce the power of institutions to seek the combination of local assets and foreign exchange liabilities, reduce foreign currency loans and reduce foreign exchange reserves.

The upward trend of foreign currency earnings has further reduced the attraction of hot money to arbitrage in China.

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