RMB Depreciate And Continue To Pressure Asset Prices

Since mid January of this year, with the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing by the Fed and the failure to effectively boost the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been falling all the way. However, from the perspective of the reform of the RMB exchange rate market, the expectation of RMB appreciation will greatly help the market orientation of the RMB, but the negative impact of the RMB disparaging on the majority of the main asset prices in the domestic capital market and real estate will also be gradually reflected.

Considering that the macro-economic growth in the coming period will also face greater pressure of slowing down, the momentum of capital outflow from the external Federal Reserve's withdrawal from quantitative easing will also be reflected, and the overall domestic asset prices will continue to bear pressure.

In terms of the trend of RMB exchange rate operation, since the end of last year, the adjustment of the real economy structure and the slowdown of growth have become the "arrow of bow" because of the advance of management in financial leveraging and industrial production capacity. At the same time, the recent high-level leaders have again declared that they will not regain the policy options of "large-scale economic stimulus" at this stage.

Against this background, analysts said the renminbi exchange rate Under the influence of unfavorable factors such as weak economic fundamentals and continued withdrawal of external QE, it is expected that the current weak operation pattern will be maintained in the short and medium term, and it is difficult to reverse the current trend of demotion from the trend.

And in China. Asset price On the previous stage, the domestic property market, industrial products, Stock market The pressure situation is expected to continue for a long time. For example, in the real estate market, the two quarter of real estate prices fell, the recent stage is gradually shifting from the earlier regional to the overall situation. The decline of housing prices in the first tier cities seems to have stopped, but the downward trend of prices in the 234 tier cities is gradually intensifying.

On the other hand, combined with copper, iron ore, coking coal, rebar and other large number of industrial products prices continued to decline this year's performance, analysts said that the weakening of the RMB exchange rate may also bring about continuous negative impact on the price of raw materials in the financing arbitrage.

In addition, from the point of view of corporate liabilities, some research institutions also pointed out that a significant depreciation of the RMB may bring greater financial burden to the real estate enterprises that are heavily burdened by aviation enterprises and some overseas financing burdens, and then bring a more obvious negative impact on the valuation of related stocks and the selling price of new houses.

Some analysts also believe that the monetary authorities may not release the possibility of releasing liquidity in the future. Against this background, the domestic related asset prices will not continue to be too pessimistic after the early fall.