The Expectation Of Depreciation Is Rising, And Foreign Exchange Is Decreasing.

< p > < strong > devaluation indicates that "external occupation" tends to drop < /strong > /p >

< p > April, the RMB against the dollar spot exchange rate set off a new downward trend.

At the same time, the expectation of devaluation of the RMB has obviously increased in the market, which is reflected in the domestic and foreign markets.

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< p > with the expectation that RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > depreciation "/a" is expected to rise, the market has also increased speculation about the decrease of external liquidity sources and the slowdown in foreign exchange growth.

From the perspective of historical experience, the expectation of RMB devaluation is more closely related to the change of China's new foreign exchange holdings, that is, the expectation of depreciation is rising.

For example, in the four quarter of 2008, the four quarter of 2011, the two or three quarter of 2012 and the two or three quarter of 2013, there was a rise in the expectation of RMB devaluation, a corresponding decline in foreign exchange growth and even negative growth.

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< p > < strong > "fine tune" escort < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > liquidity < /a > worry free < /strong > /p >

< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange reserve < /a > is one of the main channels of China's basic currency, and it plays a vital role in the liquidity of our banking system and even the overall money supply.

If the passive placement of foreign exchange is decreasing, the necessity of the central bank's initiative to put money will be raised accordingly.

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< p > the view of a number of institutions is that in the short and medium term, the "fine-tuning" means such as the open market and SLF are expected to shoulder more money supply tasks, and the need to reduce the total amount of such measures is not enough.

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< p > first, under the background of steady growth and structural adjustment, deleveraging and risk prevention, the monetary policy lacks the basis for a comprehensive relaxation, but local micro stimulation is also needed to maintain the overall stability of the banking system and ensure the moderate growth of monetary and credit.

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< p > secondly, the liquidity in May is not necessarily as pessimistic as some organizations expect, though foreign exchange accounts and Financial deposits are under pressure.

Some research institutes have pointed out that with the internationalization of RMB, the external net payment scale of RMB has increased significantly since last year, which has led to a corresponding decline in demand for foreign exchange purchase by foreign trade enterprises, resulting in a passive growth in foreign exchange reserves, plus a further improvement in the export situation in the future.

In addition, under the background of steady growth, the speed of fiscal investment may accelerate, and the impact of fiscal deposit growth may be less than expected.

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< p > Third, in May, the funds in the open market were over 500 billion yuan. Even if the central bank did not consider the reverse repurchase of the central bank, the liquidity due to the release of the funds would be considerable.

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< p > agencies have said that considering the factors of foreign exchange, fiscal deposits and the operation of the central bank's open market, the market liquidity adequacy situation is expected to continue in May, the 7 day repo rate fluctuation range or 3%-4%.

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