RMB Exchange Rate Reform For Future Interest Rate Reform

< p > the balance sheet of the monetary authority updated by the people's Bank of China (central bank) shows that in March, the new central bank's foreign exchange accounted for 174 billion 200 million yuan, while the total foreign exchange funds of the financial institutions were 189 billion 200 million yuan in the same period.

Because the data from the two caliber have been very different for second consecutive months, and all of them appear in the period of RMB depreciation, "the central bank has promoted the depreciation of the RMB" has become a general speculation in the market.

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< p > "the gap between the central bank's caliber and the new a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> foreign exchange reserve /a < < /a > basically disappeared. To a certain extent, it shows that the commercial banks themselves did not retain the foreign exchange and sold most of them to the central bank.

This situation may come from two aspects. First, commercial banks actively sell foreign exchange to the central bank, and the two is the central bank actively buying foreign exchange.

Of course, the second possibility is even greater. "

On the 8 day, Professor Li Yongkai, director of the international financial research center of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, analyzed the Economic Herald reporter.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Li Yongkai < /a > indicates that under the current foreign exchange management system of our country, the central bank plays a more active role in the foreign exchange market. By controlling the scale of foreign exchange purchase to commercial banks, it can really affect the RMB exchange rate.

"Of course, this also means that the market can observe the change of foreign exchange assets through the central bank and commercial banks to observe whether it intervenes in the foreign exchange market."

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< p > professor Wu Min, an international financial research expert at University of International Business and Economics, also told reporters that although the central bank's purchase of foreign exchange has many aspects of consideration, the RMB has continued to depreciate against the US dollar in the first quarter of this year, and indeed there is a component of supervision.

"It is mainly against exchange rate depreciation to fight short-term arbitrage funds and stabilize financial markets."

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< p > however, the two experts all indicated that the central bank's purchase of foreign exchange has a wide influence, which will not only affect the foreign exchange market, but also affect the strength of domestic currency delivery, and affect the market's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > capital < /a > liquidity.

Under the keynote of "maintaining stability", the operation of the central bank in this respect will be more cautious in the future.

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< p > "especially when the fluctuation range of the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is enlarged, the market dominance becomes stronger, and the central bank will further retreat behind the scenes."

Wu Min said.

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< p > for the future trend of RMB exchange rate, Li Yongkai said that the current Fed's contraction of QE is favorable for the US dollar to rise, and the pressure on RMB appreciation in the near future is not great.

At the same time, because of the downward adjustment for many months, the depreciation of the RMB has not been enough.

Coupled with the central bank's intention to combat arbitrage funds in its operation, "in the two quarter, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is more likely to stabilize, but there will be frequent two-way fluctuations between 6.1 and 6.2, and exchange rate elasticity has increased."

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