In 2014, The Southeast Asian Stock Market Was Proud Of The World's Largest Growth In The Global Market.

Since the beginning of the second quarter of this year, it has been driven by fundamental advantages and many countries in Southeast Asia. equity market The trend of capital outflow was ended, and the main index continued to rise, with the annual cumulative growth in the forefront of the global market.

Looking ahead, with the "normalization" of the Fed's exit from the QE policy, the "adaptability" of emerging markets in Southeast Asia will further enhance, and the pressure on its capital side is expected to continue to weaken, and the second half is likely to achieve a good performance. But it is worth noting that if the tightening measures in the US are stronger than expected, the financial markets in these areas may still have greater risks.

　 Capital outflow or end

In 2014, capital outflows began to slow down in the emerging market from the middle of last year, especially since the second quarter. Data from EPFR, an emerging market fund research firm, showed that in recent 8 weeks, 7 of the global emerging market stock market has been monitored, especially in the Southeast Asian countries where stock market performance is best.

Data show that since May, benchmark indexes in India, Malaysia and Pakistan have reached a record high. Benchmark stocks in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand are close to new highs and highs for more than two years. From the year's performance, the seven major stock indexes have increased by 16.75%, 1%, 14.68%, 16.14%, 15.29%, 6.9% and 7.81% respectively. In addition to the high level of the Malaysia stock market at the beginning of the year, the other indexes are not only better than those of other Asian emerging markets, but also better than those of the US, Europe and Japan. This year, the Asia Pacific 50 index of Asian stock market has risen 2.22%, the Nikkei 225 index has dropped 10.37%, the S & P 500 index, the British FTSE 100 index, the French CAC40 index and the German DAX index have increased 2.82%, 0.99%, 4.88% and 3.16% respectively.

Bai Chengrui, chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that the scale of the capital outflow brought about by the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy this year will be less than that of 2013, and the probability of large-scale outflow will be low. This is because the emerging markets were caught off guard last summer and are now well prepared and outflow of capital will be better controlled. For example, Indonesia has done a good job in subsidy management, and the Central Bank of India has been pushing ahead with its inflation target.

Maporth, executive chairman of Templeton's emerging market team, said that some major emerging markets will hold important elections in 2014, and the new government will have more space to deal with the obstacles faced by long-term growth. Under such circumstances, the positive factors driving the emerging markets in the past few years, including good economic growth potential, strong public and private finance, abundant natural resources, and favorable demographic structure, are expected to generate new impetus.

He also stressed that concerns about us liquidity reduction may be exaggerated. He said: "these moves in the United States only mean that new support measures may be reduced, and banks can still take advantage of existing liquidity. Even if the US monetary policy becomes a bit unfavorable to the stock market, we should not forget that other central banks, especially in Japan and the euro area, will continue to maintain strong incentives. "

Goldman Sachs pointed out that, in addition to being vigilant against the negative impact of the liquidity reduction of the Fed, we should also see that the increase in interest rate means the recovery of the US economy, which is also a "Gospel" for many Southeast Asian countries, because the United States will import large quantities from these Asian countries.

Uncertainties remain

For the outlook for the future, the industry generally believes that in the context of optimism, we should remain vigilant against Southeast Asia. financial market The risks that may be faced, especially from the recent risk of "fed risk", are not obvious.

First East Investment Group President Zhu Lili (Victor Chu) said that if the Fed raised interest rate or withdrew from QE pace exceeded expectations, emerging markets still had the risk of increasing capital outflow. Byron Wayne, vice chairman of Blackstone consultancy partners, pointed out that the Fed could gradually reduce the policy of the emerging market, so long as the US economic growth rate is higher than 2%, the trend will continue. "Therefore, although the emerging market generally has investment opportunities, the gradual reduction of the Fed will lead to higher interest rates and stronger US dollar, which is not optimistic for investors in the emerging market."

Indonesian finance minister Basri said that whether the market likes it or not, the Fed's interest rate hike will lead to capital outflows, because these funds are naturally profit driven. But the situation will not be as bad as 2013. Over the past year, Southeast Asian governments and central banks have been strengthening macroeconomic stability, which will ease the outflow of capital. Indonesia's central bank, for example, raised interest rates by 125 basis points last year to restore investor confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and, in view of slower economic growth, Indonesia cut its import of expensive products. In 2013, the rupiah dropped 20% against the US dollar, and has rebounded by about 5% so far this year.

Philippines finance minister Puri Cima also pointed out that Federal Reserve Tightening monetary policy or triggering the "knee jerk reaction" of capital outflow, but not too long, "the situation in emerging market countries is different. Some countries are heavily dependent on international capital markets, and some countries are less dependent on them. For example, Philippines's dependence on international capital is not very large. Economic growth is mainly driven by domestic sources, and financing is more from domestic rather than abroad.