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Euro Zone Or Inevitable Two Round Crisis

2014/6/13 8:42:00 25

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is there only a way to "water injection" in the "growth" of the world economy?

in China, through the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "> foreign exchange < /a > injection for many years, after the four round of the 2008 financial crisis, the European Central Bank also gave the affirmative answer: Yes, European President Delagi will not be ashamed of this.

In June 5th P, the European Central Bank's Conference on interest rates announced that it would reduce its deposit interest rate to -0.1%, becoming the first central bank to implement negative interest rates in history. This means that the central bank will collect interest from commercial banks on their overnight deposits, which will force commercial banks themselves to put out the money to promote economic growth.

In addition, the key refinancing rate dropped from 0.25% of historical lows to 0.15%, and overnight lending rates cut from 35 to 35 at 0.75%.

The new interest rate will take effect from June 11th.

Delagi also announced a package of easing policies. He said he would end the SMP write off (which means a further increase of liquidity of 165 billion euros for commercial banks), prepare for the purchase of ABS, and introduce a longer term LTRO of 400 billion euros.

In addition, the full quota of fixed interest rates that should have continued until July 2015 will be extended to the end of 2016.

This allows banks to obtain unlimited amounts of capital from the central bank through qualified collateral.

purchase of ABS (asset-backed securities) is considered to be the European version QE.

In the past, QE in the US bought huge amounts of ABS to inject more cash into commercial banks and improve their liquidity.

The European Central Bank has decided to strengthen its preparations for the direct purchase of ABS.

Delagi said that extensive asset purchase is an unconventional tool that can be used.

He said, "if necessary, action is not over yet."

previously, the market also expected the ECB to imitate the UK a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" and the central bank's /a financing loan replacement project. However, the ECB did not use this tool.

P the easing action of the European central bank can be used by artillery, machine guns and bows and arrows.

Of course, missiles - the purchase of ABS is temporarily unused.

Although the European Central Bank has made some comments last month, its strength is still bigger than the market expected.

The direct factor in pushing the action of the European Central Bank (P) is the weak economic recovery in Europe.

In the first quarter of the euro area, the GDP growth rate fell by 0.1%, while the euro area and the 28 countries of the European Union, the 4 monthly PPI decreased by 0.1%. In May, the CPI accident in the euro area slipped from 0.7% to 0.5%, and the unemployment rate was still high.

The euro zone's recovery is showing signs of weakness.

At a deeper level, as I wrote in April 8th, "the euro will enter the depreciation channel", it is pointed out that after the Federal Reserve launched its four round of QE, and with foreign exchange funds to promote China's super loose liquidity, the competitiveness of the United States is being reinvented comprehensively.

Europe, though rescued by several rounds of subprime crisis, stabilized the situation and began to show signs of recovery.

However, the competitiveness of Europe has not really been reinvented. The gap between the core countries of the euro area and the "European pig country" has not been healed. The fiscal balance of the "European pig country" has not been substantially improved.

Coupled with the relatively conservative monetary policy that did not implement QE, the euro continued to appreciate and weakened the international competitiveness of the euro area economy.

Therefore, the euro area is bound to adopt a more relaxed monetary policy to maintain economic growth and international competitiveness.

Therefore, it is the general trend for the euro to adopt a looser monetary policy to lead to depreciation.

"P > for further consideration, the ECB's over expected easing appears to have some room for consideration for the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The deterioration of the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East is the biggest casualty of the euro area, because 61.5% of its oil imports, while the Middle East and Russia account for 70% and 27% of the total oil imports respectively.

at present, the situation in Ukraine has been pushed forward by the United States. Under the strong attack of the Ukraine government forces, the conflict has further intensified. The exchange of arms between the Ukrainian government forces and the two eastern independent areas has caused hundreds of lives to die.

The US forces are trying to force Russian troops to launch. Once the two independent areas in eastern China are at stake, it is very difficult for Russia to see the fire off the coast. If the Russian forces launch, the situation will further escalate.

The gunpowder barrel of Iran's nuclear issue in the Middle East is always there. Once ignited, it will have a major impact on the euro area and China's economy.

if there is a further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East, especially in the Middle East, there will be a two round of crisis in the euro area, because it is the most heavily charged "European pig country" with the least debt pressure.

At that time, the gap between the core countries of the euro area and the "European pig country" will expand into a gap. Even if the euro area has implemented a large-scale QE, it is difficult to get rid of this external resource dependence crisis.

at the same time, the US economic recovery data is more robust. In May, the United States ISM non manufacturing PMI reached a nine month high of PMI56.3, exceeding the expected 55.5.

In May, there were 217 thousand new jobs for non farm workers, and the United States has achieved more than 200 thousand new jobs in 4 consecutive months.

The labor department said it had made up for the loss of jobs in the recession.

The depreciation of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > euro "/a" will result in more international capital flowing out of Europe and possibly diverting to China. Although China's economy continues to explore the bottom, it may be a short-term external advantage.

Of course, China's economic trend is more dependent on its own evolution.

perhaps the best time to invest in the US dollar has arrived.

(the author is the founder of the Chinese yuan think tank, for reference only. Investors' decision-making risks are conceited.

Under this general situation, please refer to the internal version of the Zhongyuan think tank, telephone number 010-88556989, .

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