When The World Cup A Shares Will Fall, Is It Like Magic Spell?

< p > recently, many a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > investors < /a > have stopped the pace of entering the A share market, because we all know that the world cup is coming, the stock market will fall, or be careful.

There are also insiders pointed out that this year's external stock market rally is good, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have reached a new high level. Affected by this, this year's World Cup A shares will fall or will be broken.

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< p > "World Cup curse" was first proposed by D-Perkins, chief euro zone economist at London's macroeconomic forecasting consulting firm. He found that from 1986 to 2010, during the world cup, the stock market would have a downward trend in the global market.

Since the establishment of the A share market, it has gone through the five World Cup, of which three fell two.

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< p > from a statistical point of view, the curse of the world cup is not groundless.

Data show that in the past 10 years, 9 years in June, there was a sharp downward trend in the market, only 1 rise, with the word "kill a whole life" to describe the A share market in June is not too much.

Similarly, the curse of the world cup is always tested.

Statistics show that in the past 14 World Cup months, only 3 times the global stock market rose, with a fall probability of 78.57%.

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< p > of course, some analysts believe that the month of holding the world cup, the stock market fell more or less phenomenon does exist, but I am afraid it is more of a coincidence.

Because the world cup is only about two weeks away, even if investors are busy watching the game, it will not affect the attention of the stock market throughout the whole month. So the topic of the "World Cup curse" is like the octopus Paul, who predicted the world cup champion, and has a strong entertainment color.

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< p > I believe that the curse of the world cup does exist. It is only for the whole stock market, but some stocks have benefited from the world cup.

For example, last Wednesday, A shares sports probability shares rose, such as Lehman photoelectric, double elephant shares, TEDA shares rose 8%.

Then why is the World Cup coming, and there will be a downward trend in the A share market? There are three reasons for this analysis: < /p >

< p > first, the world cup is the top contending tournament in the world, representing the highest level in the world.

Many people have dual roles as fans and fans.

Due to the time difference, the important events of the world cup will be broadcast in China at midnight. Many fans watch the ball game all night. The second day's enthusiasm for investing in the stock market will be greatly reduced.

If a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > stock market < /a > has been showing a sideway or falling situation, people will often choose not to pay attention in the short term and put more energy on the world cup.

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< p > moreover, with the emergence of the world cup exciting events, gambling gambling industry has sprung up all over the country. When people are concerned about the event, they will also take part of the funds to start gambling activities.

A large amount of capital flows out of the A share market will cause the A share market to be seriously ischemic, and the stock market downturn is also reasonable.

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In the end, the world cup is launched in June every year, and this is precisely the mid-term assessment of China's banking industry. In order to complete the CBRC requirements such as loan to deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio and other indicators, the major banks actively take deposits on the one hand, and on the other hand, they generally grudges loans.

Even so, there was a serious "money shortage" incident last June.

Even though this year's money shortage incident is hard to repeat itself, the central bank's directional drip irrigation system will still make the stock market less liquidity in June.

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< p > of course, whether there is any market in June depends on the fundamentals. The latest PMI ring rebounded for third consecutive months.

The latest Chinese official PMI data in May rebounded 0.4 percentage points, a third straight month rally, but this did not convince the market that the economy had bottomed out.

Because this only shows that the state-owned enterprises have begun to turn a good track, while the PMI index of the small and medium enterprises is still below the withered line.

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< p > in addition, data released by the General Administration of Customs last weekend showed that the trade surplus in May was US $35 billion 922 million, the highest since February 2009.

But a large trade surplus in May was due to a decrease in imports.

Despite the increase in imports of commodities in the first 5 months, imports of some commodities fell in May, copper imports fell by 15.6%, and iron ore imports fell by 7.2%.

The sharp contraction of import trade also illustrates the downturn in domestic manufacturing demand for raw materials from another aspect.

Therefore, I do not agree that the situation of China's foreign trade has improved.

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< p > comprehensive judgement, in the current "a href=" http://www.91se91.com "World Cup < /a" event, A share market as a whole is very difficult to break down the "Curse" or even fall below 2000 points, but it does not rule out partial plate, such as beer plate, lottery shares, home appliances plate will have some beautiful performance.

The world cup does exist "Curse" because it distracts people's attention and capital flow on the one hand, and on the other hand, the world cup is arranged in June, which is just the mid-term assessment of domestic banking industry, and the lack of liquidity.

Therefore, investors should be cautious in specific operations.

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