Ye Tan: If You Go Short, The Renminbi Will Lose.

< p > the Chinese government is cracking down on arbitrage arbitrage.

What will happen if RMB appreciation is not stopped? RMB appreciation will increase interest rates. Overseas "hot money" will continue to flow into arbitrage arbitrage, domestic enterprises will continue to borrow foreign debts, the real economy will be severely hit, and the domestic RMB market will become more and more internationalized. Until one day, the RMB exchange rate will go down, and the "hot money" withdraws large profits. A financial crisis over Southeast Asia will erupt in large numbers.

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If P does not stop, let the renminbi depreciate, what will happen? RMB depreciation and interest rate reduction, internationalization of RMB and slow pace of market-oriented reform, domestic banknotes flowing to the golden mountain, economic structure can not be adjusted, Chinese products relying on zero profit cost advantage to compete in every corner of the world, innovation capability is overwhelmed, Chinese products are encircled by trade barriers and FTA, and cost advantages are lost. Finally, in a long overcapacity crisis, China's economy will go to long-term depression.

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It is an inevitable choice for economic restructuring to go to market and internationalization of RMB P. This is not for the sake of pleasing anyone, but for the background of China's economic restructuring.

But in the process of internationalization, the RMB must be controllable and the risk can be reversed. Otherwise, the renminbi will be restrained by the old traders in the international trading market and lose their independent character.

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< p > RMB Offshore centers bloom in London, Singapore and Hongkong. Meanwhile, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Shanghai Free Trade Zone < /a > also undertakes the important task of RMB internationalization.

At the same time, two aspects of the campaign started.

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< p > one is to use RMB < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > exchange rate > /a > direction of uncertainty, to combat arbitrage arbitrage funds.

This year, from the beginning of January to the beginning of June, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.12%, the spot price depreciated by 3.55%, and the real effective exchange rate index weakened.

If calculated from 6.0969 last December 31st, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate will still depreciate by 537 basis points this year, and the depreciation rate will be 0.88%.

Basically, the foreign exchange hedge fund, which has leveraged trading, has been defeated in this round of depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the most lucrative profit has been swallowed up.

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P is far from over. When the market expects the RMB exchange rate to go down, and the Chinese economy has been on the decline, the micro stimulation has increased the macroeconomic data of China in May, and exports have increased significantly.

The RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate for more than 3 months. Up to the week of June 12th, the US dollar / RMB closed at 6.2107, and the RMB rose to 0.64% per week, the largest increase since December 2011.

In the 4 trading days of the 5 trading days of the week, the central parity of RMB was rising. In June 8th, the intermediate price rose by 138 points over the previous trading day. The single day increase was the largest in 20 months.

This is the result of guidance.

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< p > > in this way, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > unilateral "/a" > the funds to make more or less money have no way to go. Investors' expectations are completely reversed. Only one thing can be sure that these "hot money" or hedge fund managers can only throw in the towel. Under the current circumstances, they can not win the battle. In the United States and Europe, the guiding role of the central bank is stronger and stronger.

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< p > two is to crack down on financing and loan fraud.

The investigation of commodity financing and loan fraud in Qingdao port is raging. The first report on the Qingdao port information survey, which was reported in June 4th, said that the rumor about the value of goods involved in the survey has risen from 250 million US dollars to more than 1 billion US dollars.

As of the week of June 12th, Penglai port was also questioned, including Citigroup, Standard Chartered and other Western banks and CITIC Group CITIC Resources and other traders involved.

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"P", like steel trade, is an important way to expand the scale of money.

Prior to the Wall Street information website article quoted Goldman Sachs research data: China's commodity financing scale of 160 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 31% of China's short-term external debt, gold, copper and iron ore is the most used financing collateral, and other soybeans, palm oil, rubber, nickel, zinc and aluminum.

Goldman Sachs chart shows that over 70% of the world's open bonded warehouse copper stocks are used for repurchase financing or commodity financing. There are indications that more and more stocks are flowing out of bonded warehouses.

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P > with the investigation, the commodity financing will shrink sharply, and the size of China's shadow banking will shrink further, and will withdraw about 500 billion yuan, even if it shrunk by half, to withdraw from the market.

Not only that, the short-term loans from mainland enterprises to Hongkong have also been severely regulated, but the Hongkong Monetary Authority announced last week that the total amount of loans provided by Hongkong's banks to mainland enterprises and banks increased by 32% last year to 465 billion US dollars.

Rating firm's Fitch said that the risk exposure of mainland and foreign banks in mainland China to mainland China increased and total loans amounted to $798 billion.

The rest of the Asia Pacific region, mainly Australia, Japan and Macao, China, provided about $400 billion of loans to the mainland of China, using data from the bank for international settlements.

The Hongkong monetary authority has stepped up its supervision. It is possible to control the deposit loan ratio and other technical parameters in the future. It has become very difficult for mainland individuals to open accounts in Hongkong.

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