Su Yu: Directional Reduction Is Difficult To Make A Share Carnival.

In a relatively short period of time, the central bank dropped its target two times. The drop in June 9th was extended to 2/3 of city commercial banks, 80% of non County agricultural businesses and 90% of non County agricultural cooperatives. The policy signals released from this point will generate positive effects on the A share market, either from loose monetary or liquidity release angles. However, in June 10th, the A share market did not dance with joy, but kept on going its own way. "Directional drop quasi" so big a good, why not buy A shares?

First, Directional calibration The flow is clear and the release is limited. From the point of view of flow, the central bank has been actively using monetary policy tools to vigorously support economic restructuring, especially encouraging and guiding financial institutions to deploy more credit resources to the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises. The targeted reduction is to encourage commercial banks and other financial institutions to allocate more funds to the areas that need support in the real economy, so as to ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy to the real economy.

Directional drop quasi capital requirements, will be released Capital investment "Three rural" and small and micro enterprises and other key areas of national economy and weak links to promote credit structure optimization. The people's Bank of China will strengthen the inspection and supervision of the implementation of financial institutions, assess the effectiveness of policies and maintain positive incentives. This determines that the fund will be limited in size and will not exceed 100 billion yuan, and will not flow to other fields such as the A share market.

Directional rather than comprehensive, because the orientation has not been set as a stakes in the financial institutions of the joint-stock commercial listing banks, listed banks are not within the scope. Joint-stock commercial listed banks have no direct positive correlation with directional reduction. As a weight bank block, the A share market is unlikely to have a big impulse.

Secondly, IPO The pressure of expansion is worrying. The A share market has nothing to do with the bull market Carnival in the global stock market. The key is the expansion of the stock market as fiercely as the tiger. The stock market has been talking about IPO for a long time. In fact, since the central bank's first targeted reduction in April, the A share market has maintained a concussion and failed to change its currency because of the fine-tuning of monetary policy. At present, 10 enterprises have passed the IPO procedure. This means that the IPO which has been suspended for more than 4 months since January has finally opened, and the A share market is about to enter the new IPO market.

Although the supervisory department has made a statement: only 100 companies are on the market this year, but after the expected 100 new shares, there are 466 quasi listed companies that have issued pre disclosure or pre disclosure update information, and there will be more. How will the rhythm of financing next year be controlled? Although the IPO is restarted, in order to minimize its impact on the market, the SFC has passed the window guidance to reduce the over subscription, the sale of the old stock and the control of the issuing scale, but it has also increased the investment value of the new shares, and the new funds will be so different that the two tier market funds are facing another ischemia.