Shen Guojun: The Commercial Real Estate Bubble Has Begun To Burst.

< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > commercial real estate < /a > is definitely more risky than residential real estate > /strong > /p >
Reporter: I remember two years ago, when you said that three years later, commercial real estate would be even worse than residential real estate. Now, two years later, are you still sticking to the judgement at that time? < /strong > < /p > P strong.
< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Shen Guojun < /a >: now I still insist on my view that the risk of commercial real estate is definitely greater than the risk of residential real estate, because residential real estate is also facing great problems. Especially recently, after the Greentown incident came out, I feel that many housing companies in the society, including the prices of various cities, have many opinions, and I think they have exposed the problems of this industry. But if you build a large number of commercial real estate, if you do not have the ability to invest, do not operate, and have no management capability, how can the government manage? In fact, in mainland China, there are really large commercial properties with investment, operation and operation capabilities. < /p >
< p > < strong > reporter: how many do you think there is? < /strong > /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: I think 35 or five or six, so not all real estate developers can do commercial real estate. You are like a lot of homogenization. When you went to Chengdu two years ago, you also know that, at that time, you know, < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Chengdu < /a > light high tech Zone. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 100 large commercial properties. < /p >
< p > < strong > reporter: the situation of oversupply is very serious, is it? < /strong > < /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: serious, not serious. < /p >
< p > < strong > reporter: to what extent is it serious? < /strong > < /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: it is serious that you are in a very small area. In Zhejiang, there are some counties and county-level cities. I heard them say more than one hundred thousand square meters, with a building area of over one hundred thousand, and there are 20 shopping centers with more than one hundred thousand square meters. < /p >
< p > < strong > almost every day there are bankruptcy and unfinished projects to find us < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > reporter: This is to say, listen to your description just now, do you think this bubble is already more serious, or is the bubble already broken up? < /strong > /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: I think it has started to break up, because since last year, there have been a lot of resale, cooperation, restructuring, reform and unfinished business. This is already happening. We can meet every day, that is, looking for Yin Tailai for cooperation, leasing and selling, almost every day. < /p >
< p > strong > reporter: are there different market performances in different regions? < /strong > /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: I think it's OK to go to the north, as well as the whole. Because of what? Large shopping centers are still very few. In recent years, it has been built quite a lot. But in general, the proportion of the large shopping centers is still small, because the land is too difficult and the cost is too high. If you want to build a large commercial property, you will spend tens of billions of dollars, and the general company can not build it. < /p >
< p > < strong > reporter: what about the two or three line cities? < /strong > /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: two or three line cities, I think there is a general surplus. Some of the three or four tier cities have already had many problems. < /p >
< p > < strong > the housing market has entered a downward cycle < /strong > < /p >.
< p > < strong > reporter: but do you have a conclusion in the residential market? < /strong > < /p >
< p > Shen Guojun: I think China's real estate industry may be a downward cycle. It should be said that the industry is faced with many risks and difficulties. I think so. This is a personal relationship with the national macro policy. How do you guide the healthy development of this industry? Actually, this industry has led the trend of many Chinese economy. Once I said, now you say real estate, the old government says that the house price is too expensive, but in fact, where is the root cause? The government sells land too expensive. < /p >