Textile And Garment Industry And Daily Chemical Industry: Watches Import Data Tend To Be Good.

Trend review

Last week (June 23rd ~6 27), Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.60%, Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.66%. The textile and garment sector rose by 2.78%, of which the textile sub sector rose by 3.07%, and the clothing sub sector rose by 2.61%. The top three stocks of textile and clothing and daily chemicals were up and down, the top 300005 were Pathfinder (300005), Qingdao Jin Wang (002094), Dayang creation (600233) (11.07%, 9.65%, 5.65%); the latter three were silver in wool industry (000982), search in special (002503), and United States dress (002269) (-2.04%, -0.61%, -0.49%);

　 Industry information

1.5 months, domestic watch imports increased by 12.9% year-on-year; 2. cotton futures entered the bear market, the global supply material will be abundant; 3. cotton "direct subsidy" policy rules will soon be available; 4. urban beauty June 26th listing in Hong Kong; 5. Hongkong second-hand luxury retailers Milan station profit warning again; 6. outdoor brand BD the world's first image store settled in Beijing, China; 7. fast fashion brand UNIQLO plans to purchase clothing from India; the first day of listing shares rose 30%;

This week's point of view

The Customs General Headquarters released the data of domestic watch imports in May: the import volume of domestic watches increased 12.9% in May (1.6% in April), and the total import value in 1~5 months was $843 million, an increase of 12.3% compared to the same period last year, which was equivalent to 5 billion 197 million yuan, an increase of 11.6% over the previous year (considering exchange rate fluctuation). In May, the number of domestic watch imports increased by 24.1% (April growth rate 16.8%), and the total import volume of 5 million 770 thousand months in 1~5 increased by 19.3% over the same period last year. From this year's point of view, the domestic watch import situation tends to be good, and the growth rate has a distinct trend of stabilization and recovery over the past 13 years. From the Swiss table import data that we followed, the Swiss imports in May amounted to 117 million Swiss francs, a slight decrease of 1.4% compared to the same period last year. The total Swiss watches imported in 1~5 months amounted to 533 million Swiss francs, down 3.8% from the same period last year, or 3 billion 697 million yuan, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year (considering exchange rate fluctuations). According to the sub structure, the growth of demand for high-end high-end watches at 1~3 million yuan is the key to stabilizing, while the high-end list of more than 30 thousand yuan has not yet improved significantly, but the decline has narrowed gradually. The change of price structure indicates that the demand structure of domestic watches is becoming benign now. The high-end list with the demand for gifts is gradually entering a stable stage with the "de foam" process, and the demand for personal use is rising rapidly with the improvement of consumption ability. We maintain Fiyta's "recommended" rating.

We maintained the June Guoxin textile and clothing industry and daily chemical industry portfolio (equal proportions): Fiyta, Semir apparel (002563), fuanna (002327), Pathfinder and Shanghai Jahwa (600315), last week the combined group rose 4.66%. Fiyta's own brand has benefited from the rapid rise of the middle class and the rapid growth of the three or four line consumption upgrade, and the retail sales of the list have stabilized. Semir's clothing and leisure industry has stabilized the children's industrial chain to open up new growth space; the main business of the company is steady, long-term competitiveness is remarkable, the downward trend of the price center helps to improve the business more healthily; the main business of the outdoor clothing industry continues to grow rapidly, providing the margin of safety and promoting the strategic transformation; the mood of the early stage of Jahwa in Shanghai is fluctuating, and the valuation is expected to be gradually restored with the release of the new strategy and the stable core business team. In addition, it is suggested to follow the move of Qingdao Jin Wang in the cosmetics industry.