Why Does Polyester Staple Rise?

< p > in the second quarter of this year, the polyester industry chain is full of pessimism: overcapacity of PTA, oversupply of polyester products, sluggish macro-economic environment, difficulty in stimulating policies, and huge pressure on downstream textiles and clothing, and so on. The market of polyester products has also been in low oscillation for several years, and only a few small fluctuations have occurred, giving people a sense of drowsiness.

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< p > the last month of the second quarter, the polyester industry chain ushered in a wave of unexpected rise. In addition to MEG, the other products in the industry chain increased by more than 10% per month, and the upstream PX and PTA rose more than 15%.

Raw material strength and short staple manufacturers' Inventory were low. The price of polyester staple fiber not only easily exceeded 9000 yuan / ton mark, but also successfully recovered thousands of Yuan lost territory, and the total price of polyester staple has risen more than 1200 yuan / ton throughout the month.

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< p > as of June this year, the total capacity of PTA in China is about 41 million 270 thousand tons, while the total capacity of the polymer is about 43 million tons. In June, the average load of the PTA industry is only about 63.8%, while the average load of the polyester is about 75%. There is a certain gap in the demand for PTA from polyester production.

Production capacity and output are two concepts, which are related to production load each other. Excess capacity does not necessarily represent excess production.

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After the rapid development of the past few years, the scale of China's textile industry has expanded to a "Big Mac" level. It is impossible to continue the rapid growth in the early years, facing the pformation and relocation of the industry, and the development of the textile industry in Southeast Asia is also snatching the Limited market share at the same time. P

In addition, textile raw materials such as polyester, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > viscose > /a > prices have long been unable to rise, and downstream manufacturers of yarn and fabric have changed their purchasing habits in the early years and raw materials stocks are generally low. Once the price of raw materials is rising rapidly, in order to maintain normal production in the downstream, no matter whether the price rises smoothly, it can only be passively accepted in a certain period, and poor demand can not be an excuse to prevent price rise.

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< p > the first half of 2014 < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester < /a > the whole market showed a downward trend, during which there were several short bounce.

Therefore, many market participants are pessimistic and firmly believe that under the background of overcapacity and poor demand, it is almost impossible for a continuous rebound in polyester prices.

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< p > however, in the case of serious losses, PTA manufacturers can only resort to unconventional measures to protect themselves. They know that PTA stocks are too few, and polyester factories need to maintain normal production without PTA.

In the game of PTA factories and polyester factories for more than half a month, the spot price of PTA rose steadily, and finally ended with a majority of polyester factories accepting new contracts. However, the market has just started to become stronger, and PTA and polyester products can only keep up with the increase of PX.

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< p > although the increase of PTA is considerable, PX rises more rapidly. The cash flow loss of the PTA industry has been greatly expanded in late June, but the cash flow of downstream filament and polyester chip has been successfully turned around.

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< p > < < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > polyester short fiber > /a >, cash flow is in a small deficit at present. When the stock is too small, the short staple factory will have a strong desire to turn around, but the downstream price is not smooth enough.

Compared with the increase of 1200 yuan / ton of polyester staple fiber, the price of downstream polyester yarn is difficult. Taking 32S pure polyester yarn as an example, in the early June, the mainstream price in the market was 13200 yuan / ton ~13300 yuan / ton. At the end of 6, the mainstream price of the market was only 13800 yuan / ton ~13900 yuan / ton, the total monthly increase was about 600 yuan / ton, and the cash flow loss was 400 yuan / ton ~600 yuan / ton.

In the first half of June, after the wheat harvest in the north, many small cotton mills remained on the waiting list.

The rise of temperature is not conducive to yarn production. Some cotton mills in the South have the idea of reducing production or replacing cotton or viscose staple fibers with polyester staple fibers.

The demand for polyester staple in July is smaller than that in June, while the stock of short staple manufacturers will show a slow growth trend.

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In July, the supply of PX will remain tight, and the cost of PTA will be more stable. Even if the callback is high, the scope of PTA will not be too great.

Due to the arrival of oil peak in summer and geopolitical influence, MEG market is likely to be at a high level of oscillation.

The cost pressure of polyester staple fiber is still in existence. Turning losses into profits is still the primary goal of staple fiber manufacturers.

Based on the strength of raw materials and the low inventory status of staple fiber manufacturers, it is expected that the polyester staple fiber will still be running at a high level in the first half of July.

With the gradual accumulation of inventory, the influence of late downstream will gradually appear.

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