Where Is China'S Cotton Market?

< p > > the world's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > dress < /a > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "http://www.91se91.com/".

Christine Schindler, Secretary General of the Federation of textile manufacturers, "P" > International a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank", "textile" /a "also said:" China's new cotton policy will have an impact on the global cotton prices. Our expectations are optimistic. China's policy changes will make the world's cotton prices at a stable level.

Cotton seems destined to be a pain in the heart of Chinese textiles.

After years of joint efforts, the cotton purchase and storage policy, which has plagued the textile industry for many years, was declared terminated. Instead, it was replaced by the cotton farmers' direct subsidy that the textile industry dreamed of. It began to pilot in Xinjiang in the second half of this year.

However, when the parties are ready to enjoy the fruits of victory, domestic cotton prices turn straight, and there seems to be a downward trend.

China's textile industry is once again stunned. No one dared to act reckless against cotton prices in a declining channel.

The direct result is: inventory in all sectors is at the lowest level, and all the latter enterprises in the industrial chain suppress their former prices after three months' raw material prices. "According to this calculation, all processes are at a loss, and no one is making money," said Yang Shibin, assistant president of China Textile Industry Association.

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"P > cotton price declines seem to be expected. With the termination of the purchase and storage of state cotton, up to 12 million tons of national cotton reserves will be stored." the sale of China's national cotton reserves will definitely have an impact on the world's cotton market. "

Andrew Engelhart, the world's fiber Yearbook CEO, has come out with the voice of everyone.

Some even predict that the national cotton store will once again be lower than the international cotton price and even drop to ten thousand yuan per ton.

On the other hand, cotton direct subsidy rules have not come out, and the way of issuing import quotas has yet to be determined. This year's cotton market trend is complicated and confusing.

"This year in the policy alternation period, the situation that may face will be more complicated."

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< p > Wang Tiankai, President of the China Textile Industry Federation, said he saw that although Xinjiang began to implement direct subsidy in accordance with the market price as a pilot area in the second half of this year, it will help China's cotton market return to the real market. However, a large proportion of the cotton used in the enterprise still comes from the national cotton store, and it will rely on the state to store it. How much will the storage price be? What kind of comparison will it bring to the international cotton price? What kind of impact will it bring to the Chinese textile industry? "Cotton is a price problem, and it is actually a stability problem of the production order."

Wang Tiankai said.

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< p > < strong > direct subsidy rules involve various nerves < /strong > < /p >.

< p > when it comes to collecting and storing three years of experience, Gao Fang, executive vice president and Secretary General of the China Cotton Association, summed it up as follows: a phased policy is forced to be long-term, and a stressful measure is forced to be institutionalized. "It is an inevitable process, not how many countries like to spend so much money for three years.

It is indeed a policy created in the context of the international financial crisis, one aim is to protect farmers, one is to stabilize the cotton market.

After three years of storage and storage, the fluctuation of domestic cotton prices was close to 50%, and domestic cotton prices fluctuated less than 10%. The income of cotton growers also increased, rising by 1.6%, though not much, but at least they had protection for farmers.

From the above two points, the goal of purchasing and storing is achieved.

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< p > but the disadvantages of purchasing and storage soon appeared: because the price is far higher than the international cotton price, textile enterprises can not afford to buy it, so 90% of cotton output has entered the state treasury, and the country has become the biggest buyer.

The total amount of storage and storage in three years exceeded 16 million tons.

State finance is burdened with burden.

On the other hand, the quality of national cotton reserves has dropped significantly.

And because of the control of imported cotton quotas, domestic textile enterprises can only pay five yuan or six thousand yuan more than the international cotton price, and purchase the domestic cotton which is much inferior to imported cotton.

The international competitiveness of Chinese textile enterprises is greatly reduced.

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< p > in this situation, after many joint efforts, the state began to implement the target price policy this year, that is, direct subsidies to farmers.

Considering that Xinjiang is the largest cotton producing area in China, its output accounts for 60% of the total output of the country, and the production is relatively concentrated, the area is relatively closed, and the operational risk is relatively controllable. Therefore, Xinjiang has become the pilot area of direct subsidy, and is the first to push it forward.

The way of subsidy is: the central government will directly pay the subsidy to the pilot area according to the price difference between the market price and the pre-set target price. The pilot area will be distributed to the growers according to the area, output and sales volume.

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Although there are only a few short sentences in the word "P", the implementation rules have not yet been published, but they have attracted high attention and conjectures: if the domestic cotton market price really dropped to 10 thousand yuan per ton, according to the now announced direct subsidy price of 19800 yuan per ton, should the state really subsidize nearly half of the cotton farmers in Xinjiang who enjoy direct subsidy? Instead of enjoying the cotton farmers who are directly subsidizing the pilot projects outside Xinjiang, they must accept half the price difference. They are all farmers. Why? Will they not be able to join the other provinces outside Xinjiang to force the country to store again? < /p >

< p > the determination of target price, taking Gao Fang's words, is a relatively fair figure which has been carefully studied, analyzed, considered and calculated by experts in nearly six months, but the target price of 19800 yuan per ton has been questioned by textile enterprises.

Yang Shibin said: "this is farmers' income plus profit from the planting plus profits, and the profit gained by the circulation enterprises is also a big distance from the farmers' cost price."

Gao Fang's explanation is: "our principle is to ensure farmers' production costs and basic reasonable gains, reflect the form of market supply and demand, and at the same time maintain a reasonable price parity relationship with competitive crops."

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< p > "target price is now a pilot project. Pilot means exploration. There is little chance of success.

For China, the huge number of subsidy targets (farmers) will have such problems in any way.

"If you design a better plan, you may get out of shape in practice," said Gao Fang. At present, the target price is in the exploratory stage. If successful, of course, it will be unsuccessful. Of course, we must sum up, "but surely we need supporting policies, and it is impossible for a policy to solve all problems."

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< p > although all parties are worried about the introduction of cotton direct subsidy rules, it is clear to everyone that direct subsidy is the most favorable cotton policy at present. Wang Tiankai said: "the impact of this year's new cotton policy is good in the long run. We need to be confident that the short-term situation may be complicated, and we should prepare ourselves well."

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Christine Schindler, Secretary General of the International Textile Manufacturers Federation, said: "China's new cotton policy will have an impact on the global cotton prices. Our expectations are optimistic, and China's policy changes will stabilize the world's cotton prices." P

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< p > < strong > how to store the global cotton price < /strong > < /p >

< p > after three years of storage, 90% of China's cotton output has entered the Treasury. China is lucky to have 60% of the world's cotton stocks, and once again set the world's first: the world's "most" cotton.

After two or three years of gradual storage, today, up to 12 million tons of cotton stocks are facing storage, which is the number one killer in the world's cotton market.

This is evident from the recent weakness of both domestic and international cotton markets.

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< p > world fiber Yearbook CEO Andrew Engelhart said: "the sale of China's national cotton reserves will definitely have an impact on the world's cotton market, mainly including two points: in the case of such a large amount of national cotton reserves, the world's cotton price growth space is rather limited; second, farmers should consider what they will grow next year, from the current supply and demand situation, it is possible that farmers will choose to replace grain with grain instead of cotton."

What is even more disheartened is that the 12 million tons of cotton will seem to take three years to digest. That is to say, the selling policy of China's cotton reserves will at least affect the trend of world cotton for three years.

This means that the cotton market that China's textile dream is really "marketable" has at least three years of waiting.

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< p > cotton policy is far from being a cotton spinning industry.

As an important raw material of the textile industry, although the proportion of cotton is becoming smaller and smaller (the total amount of fiber processing in China last year is 48 million 500 thousand tons, and cotton fiber is only 8 million 100 thousand tons), because of its unique fiber feeling, it can not be replaced, so that the Imitation cotton products of chemical fiber have also been affected by cotton prices.

World fiber Yearbook CEO Andrew Engelhart pointed out that once the cotton price fluctuation intensifies, "there may be a dangerous situation in the price of polyester fiber: polyester raw material supply may be greater than demand, so as a major competitor of cotton polyester, the price may have a negative impact."

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< p > another set of data also reflects the far-reaching impact of cotton on the overall structure of China's textile industry. The total amount of fiber processing increased by 7 million 200 thousand tons in the first three years of the "12th Five-Year" period, but the chemical fiber product grew by 10 million 500 thousand tons. Why?

Wang Tiankai, President of the China Textile Industry Federation, pointed out: "because of the positive growth in demand for chemical fiber products, the production capacity of chemical fiber is released very quickly, resulting in some stage of excessive competition."

It can be seen that the distortion of the cotton market is also one of the leading causes of structural imbalance in China's textile industry.

The question now is: how to throw away reserves? < /p >

< p > although the dumping and storage of China's national cotton reserves will inevitably cause an unavoidable pressure on the world's cotton market, all the respondents (both at home and abroad) have pmitted such a message that the Chinese government will never deliberately suppress the international and domestic cotton market. On the contrary, the dumping and storage of China's national cotton reserves will play a stabilizing role in the world's cotton market.

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< p > Gao Fang said: "the function of national cotton reserves is to stabilize the market, to protect farmers at low market, and to stabilize" a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > /a > high.

Every time the national cotton store is put into operation from April every year, why does it come to the conclusion that farmers' cotton is basically over? At this time, the market price will not affect farmers.

Therefore, the government is also trying to maintain market stability.

Therefore, the government will never abandon the cotton harvest season.

Only when the cotton purchase in the normal year has ended and the purchase and sale are basically completed, that is, the market will not be affected by the market, and the market needs cotton when it needs to be sold.

I am against setting a deadline for a few years, because once there is a job, it may be easy to throw it away.

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"P", in order to speed up the process of storage, and also to mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprise participation, reserve cotton delivery and import cotton quotas to maintain a reasonable relationship, is generally considered to be a good idea.

"Although the amount of the country's storage cotton is relatively large, it should stop importing under normal conditions and specializes in the digestion of the national storage cotton.

But it is not such a simple arithmetic relation.

For textile enterprises, there is a need to import cotton for export. For such enterprises, we should really meet their needs.

Properly handle the relationship between placing cotton reserves and issuing quotas. "

Gao Fang said.

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< p > < strong > the way out for Chinese cotton is to change the mode of production < /strong > /p >

< p > the Chinese government has done its best to spend a lot of money on storing and storing it for a while. At the cost of reducing the international competitiveness of China's entire cotton textile industry, it has to go to the "market support" to create the fundamental reason for such a great movement in the past three years. It is said that it is to protect the interests of cotton farmers and stabilize cotton production.

Indeed, an indisputable fact is that because of the small scale artificial planting in the mainland, the productivity of Chinese cotton farmers is extremely low, or even half that of the United States.

Such low competitiveness must, of course, depend on the government's subsidies and protection. Apart from the policy of collecting and distributing reserves, the import quota system for foreign cotton and the matching sliding tax are all in order to protect the interests of farmers.

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< p > but is the interests of farmers really protected? Should backward productivity be protected? < /p >

< p > China Cotton Association survey data in December last year showed that the planting intention of cotton growers declined significantly this year, the area decreased by 12.6%.

The Bureau of statistics dropped by 6.77%.

Take Henan as an example, Henan has always been the top five cotton producing provinces in China, and the area of seed cotton has been around 10 million mu, and the output is relatively stable.

However, in recent years, the cotton planting area has dropped very rapidly. At present, there are 3 million acres.

Jiangsu, Anhui and other large cotton provinces have encountered similar problems.

The reason for seed abandonment is that grain subsidy exceeds seed cotton. Two, the labor cost of seed cotton is higher and higher, which has accounted for 60% of the total cost.

It is said that crops such as cotton are less expensive and time-consuming.

For farmers, the best income of one mu of cotton is 1000 yuan, usually seven hundred or eight hundred yuan, which has no appeal to farmers.

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< p > "the way out for China's cotton will be large-scale and mechanized production, and small-scale cultivation will be eliminated."

Gao Fang said.

In fact, in recent years, many large scale farming cooperatives and large scale cooperatives have appeared in the mainland.

For example, in Binzhou, Shandong, large mining enterprises signed contracts with cooperatives on every sowing and harvesting season.

Gao Fang said that the mainland is also active in planting cotton, that is, those areas that can be planted on a large scale.

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< p > and Shandong's Rutai textile has also explored a successful way of cotton planting.

Since 2001, Lu Tai textile has rented 130 thousand mu of long staple cotton in Xinjiang. The cotton planting from breeding has largely supported Lu Tai's own cotton, and Lu Tai has put excess cotton into the cotton market.

Speaking of the future direction of China's cotton, Liu Zibin, general manager, said: "if the cotton market wants to develop greatly, it is necessary to have large capital to enter, and carry out field operations and fine management in the future, so as to improve the quality of cotton."

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< p > with Xinjiang as the main factor and the mainland as auxiliary, large-scale mechanized fine operation will increase the output per unit area and labor productivity, and the cotton production area with low yield will gradually withdraw, improve the competitiveness of domestic cotton comprehensively, maintain the self-sufficiency rate of 2/3, and make up for the rest through imports.

This is the way out for China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > cotton < /a >.

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