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Latin American Economy Is Facing Inflation Embarrassment, Economic Situation Differentiation Is Obvious.

2014/7/29 8:38:00 19

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Latin America Economic And Situation Differentiation

the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

since 2012, the Latin American countries which have said goodbye to the "golden ten years" have been slowing down, and the three major economic manifestations of Latin America are facing. Brazil is facing a serious problem of stagflation. Argentina has not yet gone out of debt crisis 13 years ago or will sink into it. Mexico has achieved initial success since the beginning of this year's financial reform, but it still has a long way to go compared with 2012's "flourishing age".

July 24th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest world economic outlook (WEO) report, although this year lowered the global economic growth expectations, but compared with other economies, Latin American countries have the largest reduction, of which Brazil's 2014 annual growth is expected to be reduced by 0.6 percentage points.

"the tightening of Brazil's financial conditions and the continuous decline of business and consumer confidence have inhibited investment and hindered consumption growth. The weakening of Mexico's construction industry and the slowdown in the US recovery are expected to lead to a slower growth rate in 2014 than previous forecasts."

IMF chief economist Oliver Blanchard (Olivier Blanchard) pointed out in the WEO report.

the economic situation is obvious differentiation .

< < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp > > Latin America > /a > major economies in the region. Mexico is clearly on the track of gradual improvement in economy, and is farther than Brazil and Argentina.

WEO report pointed out that although Mexico's economic growth forecast in 2014 dropped from 3% to 2.4%, it is believed that with the gradual implementation of Mexico's structural reforms, Mexico's economic growth prospects are becoming more optimistic, thus maintaining its 2015 growth forecast of 3.5%.

"I have to mention Mexico. It is clearly at the forefront of reform. A series of ambitious structural reforms that have been or are being undertaken will help promote investment and economic growth."

Blanchard said.

At the beginning of this year, Mexico's president Pena Nieto (Pe a Nieto) signed and promulgated the Mexico financial reform act, which will reform the banking industry to promote the growth of credit business, and then enhance the convenience of SMEs to obtain bank credit.

"Mexico's banking system is stable and reliable. Raising the level of bank credit can enable more enterprises and individuals to get loans more conveniently, which will effectively promote the development of productive forces, and moderate credit growth will become the engine of economic growth."

Nieto said.

while raising the level of bank credit, Mexico has also carried out energy reform to break away from the original monopoly and introduce more competition.

Augusto Torre, chief economist of WB and Latin America and the Caribbean, said that the implementation of a series of reforms will have an important impact on Mexico's economic growth. But this is a long process, and the results of reform need to be reflected in a few years.

He pointed out that by 2015, the energy sector in Mexico will attract a lot of investment, which is why WB is optimistic about Mexico's economic growth prospects.

Brazil, P, the largest economy in Latin America, has suppressed the economic development space due to severe stagflation.

P, the harsh taxation system, the lack of infrastructure and the complicated laws and regulations have made Brazil's economy go from bad to worse.

In the WEO report, IMF lowered Brazil's economic forecast this year and next year by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3% and 2% respectively.

Blanchard pointed out that the current investment rate in Brazil is very low, obviously due to structural obstacles.

In July 25th, in order to curb economic recession, the Central Bank of Brazil decided to release more liquidity. By implementing a series of "non interest rate tools" stimulus measures, including the release of bank reserves and adjustment of some loan risk calculation rules, the bank system released a liquidity of 20 billion 200 million US dollars to cope with the "stagflation" phenomenon that appeared in the economy.

but the new policy has not been widely recognized by the market. Economists point out that the problem of Brazil is not the shortage of funds or credit supply, but the lack of credit demand caused by lack of commercial confidence.

"P" and Brazil's "brothers and sisters" - Argentina recently suffered from debt crisis.

As Latin America's third largest economy, Argentina, which has yet to get out of its 2001 debt default, will face a risk of default recently, which is a blow to Argentina trying to return to the international market.

professionals pointed out that the long-term structural imbalance in Argentina has made Argentina's economy unsustainable, the risk of short-term economic hard landing has risen significantly, the space for future policy adjustment is insufficient, the international reserve has dropped sharply, the pressure of currency devaluation has been greater, and the debt paying ability of the Federal government's foreign currency and foreign currency has declined significantly.

"if Argentina has another debt default, it will lead to its failure to return to the international market for a long time. The loss to Argentina will be enormous."

Blanchard said.

common problem: inflation /p >

although Mexico has achieved initial success in reform, it is still hard to escape the prevailing inflation rate prevailing in Latin American economies.

recently, a survey of 4320 global fund investors launched by Asset Management Co Mason Legg showed that inflation has become the biggest factor affecting investors' performance.

in the survey results, investors in Latin America are particularly "headache" for inflation.

60% of Brazil's investors are worried about inflation, the highest proportion among the surveyed state investors, and the second place is Mexico, which accounts for 58%.

as of April this year, the Central Bank of Brazil has increased the benchmark interest rate for 9 consecutive times in a year, with a cumulative interest rate of 375 basis points.

Interest rates are now maintained at 11%, which is the highest interest rate in recent two years.

The inflation rate in Brazil has been higher than the inflation target since 2010.

According to the latest data, Brazil's inflation rate has reached 6.51%, exceeding the 6.5% inflation limit of the Brazil central bank.

Inflation in Mexico less than p reached 3.97% in 2013, exceeding the inflation target set by the Ministry of finance before 3%.

A series of measures, including fiscal reform, implemented at the beginning of this year, played a certain role in restraining the high inflation. The Central Bank of Mexico said in June that it was expected to achieve the set inflation target this year.

to curb serious inflation, the government of Argentina also began tightening fiscal and monetary policies from the beginning of the year. Although the current policy has improved inflation, it has led to a sharp rise in the risk of recession.

The common problem faced by Latin American countries is that, in the case of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "economic < /a", the underlying economy has not yet recovered and the growth rate is generally slowing down, governments can not cope with inflation by blindly raising interest rates. Especially when Brazil is facing "stagflation", monetary policy is useless. The government is facing a dilemma. We must find a balance between curbing inflation and avoiding further slowdown in economic growth.

The suggestion given by P IMF in the WEO report is that many economies, including Latin American countries, urgently need to implement structural reforms to eliminate infrastructure gaps, increase productivity and promote potential growth.