Stock Market Brokerage Zhou Celve, Shanghai And Shenzhen 300 Has 15% Rising Space.

< p > > the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > shoes < < hat net "Xiaobian to introduce the broker Zhou Celve: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has 15% rising space, adding consumption leading.

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< p > < strong > directional easing policy is in continuous production < /strong > /p >

< p > we have always emphasized that there is policy expectation of relaxation in the second half of the year, and the recent series of policy actions are being gradually verified.

First, the central bank has enhanced short-term interest rates.

Last Thursday, the 14 day repo winning interest rate fell for the first time from 10bps to 3.7%, signalling significance is very important, and the adjustment of the policy to the capital side has already shifted to the price adjustment stage; two, the policy has directly intervened in the so-called "toxic assets". For example, the CBRC has just approved the establishment of 5 local Asset Management Co, strengthened the disposal of non-performing assets, and three is the establishment of the CDB, the special housing development project.

Taking into account the relaxed policy climate, we will increase the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's short-term rise in space from the previous 10% to 15%.

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< p > < strong > "price" is more important than "quantity", paying attention to whether the winning rate of this week is declining again < /strong > < /p >

< p > despite the first net return of open market operations last week, we think this is not enough.

We expect that the capital market will be significantly looser in August than in 6~7 months, which can be said to be the best month in the second half of the year, because: (1) apart from the IPO factor, dividend payment and financial contributions will be disappearing, which will result in the fluctuation of the capital market in July. (2) the rapid return of foreign capital will trigger a continuous appreciation of the RMB. We believe that the new foreign exchange will rebound.

If the interest rate of the open market operation is down again this week, this can be interpreted as a strong signal that the market should have a stronger interest rate cut expectation.

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< p > < strong > last week AH discount narrowed, Shanghai and Hong Kong through theme or continuation < /strong > /p >

< p > Hang Seng AH premium index rose 2.88% last week, the biggest increase since April.

Nevertheless, the current AH premium index (92.76) is still at the lowest level in history. Compared with the announcement of the Shanghai and Hong Kong pass, the reduction or premium of the AH discount is mainly concentrated in the raw material industry (such as Yanzhou coal industry, conch cement), and the discount in finance, electricity, industry and other fields is widening. We believe that these sectors still have the opportunity to get excess returns.

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< p > < strong > investment advice: pay attention to Shanghai and Hong Kong through the beneficial shares < /strong > /p >

< p > we prefer the following types of A shares: (1) A/H has a larger discount; (2) compared with the H-shares / overseas a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > stock market < /a > comparable companies, A shares are relatively cheap; (3) relatively scarce varieties, such as Chinese medicine, liquor, media, tourism, etc. (4) market share in the field of segmentation is the highest in the world; (5) dividend yield is above 6%; (6) earnings growth is stable and valuations are not expensive.

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< p > < strong > Ping An Securities: short term worry free market plus consumer leading shares < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1, market situation: credit has improved, and the economic stage has improved.

The rise of physical output and monetary credit showed a short-term marginal improvement in economic growth. Macro and micro data deviated or showed that investment domestic demand was weak and commodity supply side pressure was weak. The three quarter was expected to recover slightly, while downward pressure still existed in the four quarter.

The liquidity environment has changed from monetary easing to credit improvement. Social and financial integration has risen significantly. The price of capital has been rising slightly, but the pressure is limited and the capital side has remained stable. The steady growth of short-term strength has not been reduced, but substantial economic reform may still have to wait.

Short term economy, capital and policy reflect market uncertainty.

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< p > 2, market judgement: there is no pressure in the short term, and the trend space is doubtful.

In the second half year strategy, we highlighted the three quarter's positive opportunities, namely the improvement of the economy, the expansion of credit and the stability of policies.

After a significant rebound in the index, considering that the short-term economic growth and credit improvement remain marginal at the same time, there is no possibility of deterioration in the asset price value factor, but the room for further improvement may be limited.

Shanghai Hong Kong is expected to improve market risk preference, but it still needs to be observed whether it can bring sustained incremental funding.

We judge the short-term worries of the market, but the trend is doubtful, the index rebound market or enter the future stage, and the subsequent market uncertainty risk point may be concerned about the persistence of policy stimulation in late August.

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< p > 3, style judgment: growth will continue to adjust, blue chip will still dominate.

Too high institutional positions restrict further incremental allocation space, and the possible downward pressure on performance after the lower than expected period and the expected constraints of Shanghai and Hong Kong all constitute a repression of growth stocks represented by growth enterprise boards. We believe that the adjustment pressure on growth stocks may not yet be released.

We continue to emphasize that in the downward cycle of performance, investors will be more concerned about the certainty of market performance and market flexibility.

For the blue chip, the macro stage improvement, the structural adjustment of market allocation and the market activity expected by Shanghai and Hong Kong are relatively good, especially in the areas where the dividends are high.

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< p > 4, industry allocation: playing the financial sector, adding consumption leading.

We believe that the overall position in August is not suitable for overcharging, and the main direction of operation is to lighten the resource cycle, the game is less than a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp", "finance /a", "real estate" and "consumption leading".

Suggestions: (1) short term can continue to underestimate the value of blue chips in the short term, mainly from the big financial areas, such as banks, insurance and real estate, which benefit from the loosening of policies and the decline in asset worries. But for resource cycles, taking into account the limited demand side and the pressure of supply side is still greater, we suggest that the market will gradually reduce its holdings. (2) on the trend, we propose to configure white horse stocks with relatively stable performance and relatively reasonable valuation, such as food, beverage and medicine, especially the external scarce assets which are really benefited from the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong. (3) the theme will continue to focus on new energy vehicles and national defense industry.

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