High Settlement Price Once Again Trigger Limited Production Game PTA Industry Chain Limited Production Game When

< p > > the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

< p > with the announcement of the settlement price of PTA at the end of July and the conclusion of the ACP negotiations in Asia, the market direction should be gradually clear, but at the moment it seems to be more confusing.

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< p > despite the fact that the position of PTA futures 1409 contract has dropped from the peak of 62 hands in mid July to less than 400 thousand hands at present, compared with the same period in history, the position is still relatively high, and the market's fear of high position has not yet been completely eliminated.

Especially in the upcoming delivery month, the market is worried that the tight supply of PTA will continue.

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< p > strong > high settlement price once again triggers the limited production game < /strong > < /p >

< p > although the futures market delivery month is approaching, the PTA spot market has not changed much before, and the overall turnover is still relatively light.

It is worth mentioning that, in order to deal with the PTA factory's "limited production and insured price" action, there are rumors that some polyester factories tried to reduce production in late July to cope with the high settlement price of raw material market and the problem of tight supply.

After June, the game of limited production of polyester industry started again.

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< p > "it was acceptable last time, but this time it will not work."

A person from a polyester enterprise in Zhejiang said that although the settlement price of PTA6 was significantly higher than the average price of the market, most of the polyester enterprises successfully pferred the cost and the pain was only temporary because of the good linkage between upstream and downstream.

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The high settlement price of < p > July obviously made polyester enterprises more bitter.

"Because of the lack of downstream demand, polyester enterprises suffer serious losses. In the face of high settlement prices, it is inevitable that conflicts will arise."

In the eyes of these people, it is no longer a pet enterprise's bite.

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< p > obviously, the high settlement price once touched the sensitive nerves of the market again.

According to the futures Daily reporter, in July 24th, Yisheng petrochemical and Xiang Lu Petrochemical announced that the settlement price of PTA7 month contract was 7900 yuan / ton.

In the same period, the average price of the PTA internal disk released by the medium speed net was only 7410 yuan / ton (the average spot price in the whole month was 7430 yuan / ton).

Moreover, the settlement price of raw material PX at the end of July is also significantly higher than the average cost of the month before the month.

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< p > although the settlement price of PTA is high, the market also anticipate it.

Wang Guangqian, a futures analyst at Soochow, told reporters that due to the low social inventory of PX in July, the petrochemical manufacturers took into account the supply and demand situation. The settlement price of the PX contract in that month was set at 10700 yuan / ton, which is higher than the average spot price of 1418 dollars per ton in July, which is indeed reasonable.

The PTA plant is in the contraction stage due to the agreement of the price alliance. Therefore, the PTA contract price will be improved according to the settlement price of raw material PX.

"In fact, the price of PX and PTA contracts is high in July, both based on the tight supply pattern."

Wang Guangqian said.

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< p > at present, the high settlement price of 7900 yuan / ton in July has raised the production cost of polyester plant, making the loss rate of polyester enterprises increased.

Polyester enterprises have the intention of further lowering production load in the case of shifting costs.

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< p > Qian Cheng, manager of Zhejiang R & D industrial investment research department, also confirmed the news.

In July, the settlement price was significantly higher than the spot price level, resulting in some polyester factories more inconsistent.

"At present, terminal consumption is still in a seasonally low season, and polyester production and marketing remain weak, making polyester enterprises actively compressing production."

According to Qian Cheng, as of now, polyester production load has dropped to 65.8%, some polyester enterprises in Jiangsu have reduced the August contract goods, instead of using spot purchase procurement gap plan.

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< p > < strong > PX Asia ACP negotiations again aborted < /strong > /p >

< p > except for settlement price, the ACP negotiation at the end of July is also a key factor affecting the market trend. Especially after determining the new pricing mode, the change of PX price undoubtedly becomes the "vane" of the market. "PX"

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The negotiation of P ACP has only been successful this year, and the rest have ended in failure. This negotiation is no exception.

Due to the successive reduction in downstream production and the low traditional import season of PX imports in June, the import demand of PX has dropped sharply.

In terms of PX supply, the recent PX new installations have been put into operation and the products have been supplied to the market. The major suppliers in the Asian ACP negotiations also changed the strength of ACP negotiations last month, and began to voluntarily reduce the August initiative price.

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< p > according to Qian Cheng, during the negotiations, the price of Korean S-oil in August was lowered from $1500 / ton to $1410 / ton, but the buyer's counteroffer was between 1270 and 1300 USD / ton, and the difference between the two sides was larger.

And at the end of July, the PX market appeared in the PTA factory to sell raw materials to press PX prices, which ended the failure of the August ACP negotiations.

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< p > reporter understands that PTA market is tight because of tight supply, and the price has remained stable. It has not followed the price of raw materials, which has further opened up the profit space for PTA factory.

Wang Guangqian believes that the current domestic inventory of PX is still relatively low. After the failure of the ACP negotiations in August, the PTA plant will further reduce its operating rate to withstand spot prices while reducing the consumption of PX to suppress the price of raw materials.

At the same time, the PTA factory will look for opportunities to replenish the PX raw material stock and get a certain safety stock, and the PTA factory will further enhance the voice of raw material PX.

"With the current market structure, the low load operation state of PTA polyester industry chain will continue for a period of time, while the expansion of PX plant capacity is also in progress."

Wang Guangqian said that in a short period of time, PX prices will hardly be strong again.

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< p > < strong > in recent months, the position decreased rapidly < /strong > < /p >.

< p > at present, there are more than one month's delivery from PTA futures contract 1409.

At this critical time point, the "high alert" in the futures market has not really been lifted.

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< p > recently, the PTA spot market has been running smoothly, and the spot market price has been oscillating for nearly two weeks near 7500 yuan / ton.

< a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a > futures 1409 contracts also oscillated around the 7400 yuan / ton integer pass, and the positions began to decrease significantly from July 23rd.

As of August 4th, in the 10 trading days, PTA futures 1409 contract reduced by more than 250 thousand hand, to 368 thousand hand level.

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< p > "for PTA's recent contracts, the bulls are relatively safe at the moment."

Galaxy futures analysis normal Jinsong said, on the one hand, supported by cost, on the other hand, futures prices are still in a state of discount, which is difficult to attract sellers to register warehouse receipts.

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< p > according to the latest disclosure of Sinopec net, the total capacity of PTA in Ningbo, Dalian and Hainan in Yisheng Petrochemical Company in August has been adjusted to 57%, and the rate of operation has approached the low level of the industry over the past 13 million 600 thousand years.

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< p > "inventory is still difficult to increase before the operating rate has been significantly improved, especially after the 1409 contract delivery."

Fan Jinsong said frankly, with the increase of PX capacity, the PTA utilization rate is expected to increase.

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The idea of < p > has also been recognized by Wang Guangqian.

In his view, the current demand for polyester links in the lower reaches is extremely low. Many polyester factories have car maintenance plans in August, and later PTA factories will also reduce production load and supply.

The contraction of supply and demand at the two ends makes the PTA social inventory probably lingering low, and it is difficult to increase significantly in the short term.

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< p > the most important concern for the market is that the late warning of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp "> /a > high position will be lifted effectively. Unfortunately, most respondents did not give a clear answer to this question.

In their view, before the delivery month, the supply of PTA market is mainly led by PTA factory, and the tight supply pattern of PTA market will continue in a short time.

However, as time goes on, PTA's position on the contracts in the near future will continue to decrease significantly, and the situation of high position in the PTA market is expected to be eased.

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