Interpretation Of The Development Of Domestic Environment

< p > strong > (1) < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > national economy < /a > continue to maintain a steady growth trend < /strong > /p >

< p > the second half of this year, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large. But in the near future, with the support of the "directional regulation" micro stimulus policy and the favorable conditions for the continuous release of dividends, China's macro-economy will remain stable.

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< p > the economic prosperity system developed by the National Information Center also showed that the peak value of China's comprehensive leading index appeared in March 2013, including broad money, fiscal expenditure, fixed assets plan investment, automobile output, crude steel output, finished goods inventory, and the US leading index. In the past ten months, the peak value of the composite index showed a slight concussion and a slow downward trend. In the past two months, the leading index has initially stabilized and stabilized.

The leading index generally leads the industry and other indicators for about 6 months. China's comprehensive leading index fluctuates slightly and the trend is stable. It shows that China's economy will continue to grow steadily in the second half of the year.

It is estimated that economic growth will be around 7.4% in the second half of 2014, around 7.4% in the whole year, and the consumer price will be around 2.5%.

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< p > < strong > (2) < a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB < /a > the lagging effect of exchange rate appreciation appears < /strong > /p >

< p > this year, the RMB exchange rate has been steadily derogated.

The policy of withdrawal from the United States has caused international capital to flow to the US. The upward pressure on the effective exchange rate of RMB has decreased, and the two-way fluctuation of exchange rate is likely to increase.

Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated about 1%.

However, in the past few years, the RMB has shown a unilateral appreciation trend. In the past 2012-2013 years, the effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 12.5%. Compared with the sharp depreciation of other emerging markets and developing countries, the RMB exchange rate has overshoot phenomenon. According to international experience, the lagging effect of exchange rate on exports will be concentrated in the next two years.

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< p > > strong > (3) < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign trade < /a > directional regulation policy in the field gradually improved. < /strong > /p >

Since the beginning of this year, the State Council has put forward a new situation of opening up to the outside world at a high level, promoting the pilot area of free trade pilot area, expanding the opening of the inland border areas, encouraging the import of shortage products and the export of large scale complete sets of equipment, and pressing ahead with the tasks of "one belt and one road", Bangladesh, China, Myanmar and Sino Pakistani economic corridor construction, and so on. (P)

In May, the general office of the State Council issued some opinions on supporting the steady growth of foreign trade. Subsequently, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs, the central bank and other departments issued successive supporting measures, and foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu formulated corresponding implementation plans.

The implementation of these policies and the continuous release of reform dividends in the field of foreign trade will enhance the confidence of foreign trade enterprises, stimulate the innovative vitality in the field of foreign trade, and facilitate the steady recovery of imports and exports.

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< p > < strong > (4) the leading index of trade is generally good, < /strong > < /p >.

< p > the leading index of international trade: Baltic dry bulk index has shown a rebound since the fourth quarter of last year, indicating that the international trade situation will be slightly improved. According to JP Morgan data, the average PMI output index of the whole industry in the two quarter is 54.1%, the highest level since the first quarter of 2011. The leading index of China's foreign trade has reached 42.1% in the two quarter, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, indicating that the trend of better export in the coming period is more obvious.

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< p > based on the above analysis, China's exports will increase by about 7.5% in the second half of this year, and imports will grow by about 5.5%.

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