The Import And Export Situation Is Expected To Further Improve In The Second Half Of This Year.

< p > strong > (1) < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > developed economy < /a > recovery power enhanced < /strong > /p >

At present, the global economy, driven by the good development of the developed countries, is expected to continue the trend of mild recovery. The demand of the international market has gradually improved, and World Trade and investment have picked up again. P

The real estate market in the United States tends to be stable, the confidence of consumers and investors is gradually restored, the results of the energy independence strategy are apparent, and the industrialization has made some progress. The manufacturing industry has developed to digital and intelligent, and the economic growth rate has reached 4% in the two quarter.

Euro zone economic confidence index, manufacturing PMI and other leading indicators continued to improve, the unemployment rate gradually dropped, pillar economies Germany's economic fundamentals are good.

The moderate growth of world economy will speed up international trade and investment.

The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade will grow by 4.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the previous year, which is conducive to stimulating China's export growth.

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< p > strong > (2) < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > emerging economy < /a > growth is restricted. < /strong > /p >

< p > downward pressure on emerging market and developing economies.

First of all, the structural contradictions of emerging economies are prominent, facing the arduous structural adjustment pressure; secondly, the withdrawal of quantitative easing policy by developed countries leads to the risk of emerging market capital flight, currency depreciation, financial market turbulence and so on. Once again, the macroeconomic policy space of emerging economies is narrowed, and high debt and inflation limit the operation space of fiscal and monetary policies.

IMF's spring report predicts that in 2014, GDP in emerging and developing economies increased by 4.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast, and the latest report once again raised the growth rate of emerging economies by 0.3 percentage points to 4.6%.

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< p > strong > (3) < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Global Value Chain < /a > consolidation trend > /strong > /p >

Under the background of the highly integration of the global economy, the development of international trade has extended from the integration of industrial chain to the integration of value chain. Moreover, with the re industrialization process of developed countries, this trend is becoming more and more obvious. P

The distribution of production in the world has evolved from the distribution of the original industry among different countries to the distribution of different segments of the industry in different countries.

All aspects of product design, supply of raw materials, production and assembly of intermediate products, product sales and recycling all over the world. The developing countries, including China, have been incorporated into the value chain trade dominated by global production of multinational corporations, and gradually become an exporter of low value-added manufactured goods.

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< p > the strategy of "re industrialization" in developed countries has made technological progress and innovation more concentrated in these countries, and some key technologies and parts manufacturing reflux have accelerated.

Although China is the world's first export power, most products, especially high technology products, are usually designed and produced in accordance with other countries, which in turn inhibits the improvement of China's independent innovation capability, and on the other hand hinders the upgrading of domestic industries and the formation of independent brands.

With the continuous rise of labor, capital, land, resources and environmental costs, the advantages of China's export products in the global value chain have gradually weakened, which has restricted the export of products.

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< p > < strong > (4) the main countries' monetary policy is divided into < /strong > < /p >.

< p > because of the different economic development conditions, the monetary policies of the world's major economies have been divided.

The US Federal Reserve recently announced that it will continue to reduce the size of the monthly purchase debt. The total asset purchase amount dropped from 45 billion US dollars to 35 billion US dollars since July. It is expected that the QE will end in the four quarter, but in order to promote sustained economic growth, the trend of maintaining loose money will be maintained at the stage. As inflation continues to decline, IMF suggests that the EU consider appropriate easing monetary policy, the EU announced another interest rate cut in June, and further clearly put forward the implementation of quantitative easing policy. Japan's "Andouble economic policy" is unchanged, currency depreciation and low interest rates will continue.

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