PTA Late Supply And Inventory Increase Is Not Suspense.

Here world

The small weave of the net introduces to you that there is little suspense in PTA's later supply and stock increase.

Near September, because of the high cost point of view, PTA limited production difficulty increased, polyester consumption returned to light, PTA phase.

Keep going down.

PX new capacity has been launched, supply exceeds demand.

Since June, Asian PX has entered a period of great opening of new capacity: in June, the SK/JX 1 million tons PX device was launched in Ulsan. In July, Samsung's Total 1 million tons PX device was launched, in August, the 1 million 300 thousand tons of South Korea's SK Energy and 900 thousand tons PX of India ONGC started.

So far, the new PX device in Asia this year will have only 800 thousand tons of aromatics which are planned for commissioning in early September.

Since only PTA plants were put into operation in China in 2014, the output of these 5 million tons of PX plants still needs to be digested by Chinese PTA enterprises, so the Asian PX capacity for China's imports will exceed 15 million tons.

Coupled with China's own 12 million tons of capacity, to meet China's PTA70% load needs only PX operation rate of about 74%, PX supply will not be tight in the second half of the year.

At present, the difference between PX and naphtha's oil price is still around 400 US dollars / ton, and the profit is still considerable at the cost of 300 US dollars per ton.

When crude oil and naphtha drop, PTA polyester maintains low load, PX does not return below average cost, so it is difficult to reduce load effectively.

Therefore, the cost center of PTA will move downward, which will drag down the price of PTA.

PTA profits improve, limit production is difficult.

In early September, Helen's two phase 1 million 500 thousand ton PTA plant was planned to go into operation, when PTA production capacity and polyester production capacity were basically equal to 44 million tons.

When the BP three phase 1 million 500 thousand tons capacity is put into operation in December, the PTA production capacity will exceed the polyester production capacity, while the PTA required per ton of polyester will be within 0.86 tons. When the load of PTA industry is 70% of the alliance, only the polyester load exceeds 81% can the supply and demand balance.

When the industry loses money, the alliance calls for easy parking.

When PX falls and PTA production is profitable, reducing load depends largely on Yisheng.

After Yisheng Petrochemical announced its load drop to 57% in August, it recently announced the start of the PTA plan in September: the 1#220 plant in Dalian continued to stop, the operation began to run down at the end of 2#8, the specific load was not determined; the Hainan plant was scheduled to stop for repair for September 8th for the 1 month.

The total operating rate is still no more than 60%.

Other businesses just stop for a few days symbolically. From the recent PTA spot supply, there is a low load.

As a result, there is no suspense for the later PTA supply and the increase in stock, only the speed.

Polyester consumption is flat and bright.

When the upstream production capacity is increasing, polyester consumption is the focus.

In the two quarter, the consumption ratio of polyester enterprises to PTA increased by 1 million tons, while the supply of PTA increased by only 100 thousand tons, which led to a sharp decline in PTA inventories.

In the three quarter, polyester enterprises are expected to spend 6 million 800 thousand tons on PTA, down 640 thousand tons in the two quarter, while the supply of PTA increased by 200 thousand tons to 7 million tons during the same period, while PTA stocks increased by 200 thousand tons.

Polyester polyester consumption is mainly textiles and clothing. This year, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $162 billion 800 million in 1 and July, up 5.6% from 2013, creating a new low in recent years.

Affected by the increase in domestic production costs, the focus of world textile and clothing has shifted to Southeast Asia, and textile and garment exports are likely to become increasingly sluggish.

Domestic retail situation is also not optimistic, from 1 to July, retail sales of 672 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year, is also a low point in recent years.

In the first half of the year, the highlight of pet consumption was BOTTLE VASE export, because the price of Chinese bottle flakes was much lower than that of Korea and India. From 1 to June, the total export volume was 1 million 110 thousand tons, with a growth rate of 30%.

However, the export of PET bottles in July decreased by 13% compared with the same period last year, because the price of China's bottle bottle has no advantage, and the consumption season of beverage consumption has already passed. The next round of procurement of foreign merchants usually gets after November, so consumption is temporarily difficult to pick up.

at present

The stock is not high, and the probability of a sharp fall is low when the institution buys a large amount of hedging. The PTA period price is more likely to oscillate.