Cotton Market Has Reached The Highest Level In History.

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Xiaobian of the network to introduce to you that cotton stocks have reached the extreme value of history.

Recently, China's cotton stocks have reached a record high of about 11 million 600 thousand tons, accounting for more than 60% of the world's total inventory.

In addition, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) said that by July 31, 2015, domestic cotton stocks are expected to soar by 115% to 5 million 600 thousand packages.

Insiders say that the cotton market is seriously oversupplied, and the price of cotton will further decline.

High domestic inventories

Reporters learned that, in recent years, Zheng cotton main contract lower and lower, reduce the warehouse down, the decline will exceed 2%, due to the negative impact of USDA monthly report and domestic inventory hit a record high pressure.

Insiders say that the US cotton market will remain weak in the short term, and there will still be some room for decline in the domestic market.

According to media reports, recently, cotton 1501 main contract reported 14460 yuan / ton, fell 2.13%; 352 thousand positions, turnover 200 thousand hands.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton prices fell, ICE-12 cotton fell 0.32 cents, or 0.5%, at 64.35 cents a pound.

According to China cotton information network data, recently, China's cotton stocks reached a record high of 11 million 600 thousand tons, accounting for more than 60% of the world's inventory.

Yi De futures analyst Yi Le recently said in an interview with the media that after three years of continuous storage and storage, the domestic stock has reached the extreme value of history. This year, the policy of purchasing and storage is changed to direct subsidy. The market is concerned that the loosening of the policy market will impact cotton prices.

Guoxin futures analyst Zhu Chenyao believes that the cotton growth period is lagging behind this year and the new cotton market will be postponed due to climate change. Therefore, Zheng cotton will be strong in the short term, but it will remain short for a long time.

In addition, the downstream demand of domestic textile enterprises has shrunk, and the auction has not been positive.

According to the insiders, although the quality of cotton reserves is uneven, it is difficult to get rid of the warehouse as a main reason to restrict the enthusiasm of the enterprises. But more importantly, the textile enterprises take care of the goods and buy them more than they want.

US cotton output hit a four year high

USDA's recent August supply and demand report shows that it is expected to be 2014/15 in the United States.

Output will reach 17 million 500 thousand packs, a 4 year high, and a high end of the industry forecast range.

In addition, USDA said that by July 31, 2015, domestic cotton stocks are expected to soar 115% to 5 million 600 thousand packs, the highest since 1986.

SterlingSmith, a market expert at Citigroup futures in Chicago, estimates that cotton prices in New York, which have fallen by 25% this year, will drop by 9.3% by the end of the year.

USDA predicts that the decline in drought in Dezhou indicates that the cotton harvest in the United States will grow by 36% this year, the largest increase since 2011.

The improvement of planting environment, along with China's stock raising, made cotton prices fall for the three consecutive month, the longest consecutive three consecutive years.

Ding Yongxin, an analyst with Hualian futures, said that the USDA report increased the US cotton output and inventory in the US 2014/15 year, slightly reducing the end of the world cotton inventory, while the global consumption increased by 4%.

It is expected that the USDA report and the sharp decline in US cotton will make Zheng cotton short term pressure.

The spot quotation of cotton information network shows that in August 15th, the international cotton index (SM) 80.67 (cents / pound), up 7 points, converted to the general trade port delivery price of 12718 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax, the exchange rate was calculated by the Bank of China's middle price), the international cotton index (M) 76.65 cents, or 7 points, equivalent to the general trade port delivery price 12095 yuan / ton.

Insiders say domestic

The new cotton market will be affected, and the textile enterprises will be warming up stage by stage. Under the policy interference, the short-term cotton prices will stop and go down, but the cotton price in the middle period is still pessimistic.