National Bureau Of Statistics: Clothing CPI Counter Attack Refraction Cost Rising Trend Unchanged

The latest figures show that in 2014 1~8, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, down 0.1 percentage points from 1~7 months this year.

Domestic price level is basically stable, but the overall trend of slow downward trend has made the signs of deflation increasingly apparent.

The overall decline reflects the slowdown in investment growth under the new macroeconomic norm, and the contraction of monetary liquidity weakens the driving force of consumption expansion to a certain extent.

The problem of overcapacity in some industrial sectors has not yet been completely solved, and the factory price of industrial products has continued downward. The 1~8 industrial producer price index (PPI) has decreased by 1.6% over the same period last year, and it can not support the rise in consumer prices.

With the trend of the general price level of the whole country is different, clothing CPI has shown a trend of steady and steady rise this year.

1~8 month, the national clothing CPI increased 2.4%, or 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the first half of this year and the first quarter respectively.

In the 8 consumer categories of national statistics, clothing CPI rose only second after food.

Clothing prices are rising steadily, which is related to the low elasticity of clothing demand and the stability of demand scale. However, supply and demand is not the most important factor affecting the price of clothing and consumer goods this year.

From the supplier's point of view, the supply of raw materials has been more and more affected. The price of textile raw materials has declined since the beginning of this year. The average price of cotton and chemical fiber market in 1~8 months has dropped by about 10% compared with the same period last year, and the prices of intermediate products such as downstream yarn and cloth have also come down.

1~8 month, clothing PPI increased only 0.8%, or 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and did not have the conditions to support the expansion of CPI; 7, the clothing PPI growth rate in August slightly down, and clothing CPI trend is not synchronous.

From the perspective of the buyer side, according to the National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 10.4% over the same period of 1~8 months, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. According to the data of the Circulation Association of China Textile Industry Federation, the total sales volume of apparel and home textile products in the first half of the year increased by 39.2% compared with the same period last year, compared with the growth rate of 47.2% in the whole year of 2013, and the growth rate of domestic demand consumption was generally stable and slowing down, which was also deviated from the trend of clothing CPI.

Why, then?

CPI is still rising steadily? Can the problem be attributed to the rapid rise in the cost of intermediate circulation?

In fact, the cost of retail channels is too high and the relevant market management is not perfect. It has always been a practical problem for textile enterprises, and also a shackle for the development of independent brands of textile and clothing.

Although on the surface, the higher growth rate of clothing CPI can play the role of easing the expectation of macro deflation, it is not difficult to find out the relationship between the data behind it. If the problem of high cost of circulation is not solved for a long time, the impact of high prices on the release of domestic demand consumption potential will become increasingly prominent, and it is necessary to pay more attention to this issue.

Further analysis, the clothing class CPI contains the cost of clothing processing services, that is, the cost of personal custom clothing.

National Bureau of statistics data show that in August the clothing processing service fee rose to 5% in the same month, which is one of the important factors to support the rise of clothing CPI. This once again confirms the fact that the textile industry is facing a continuous rise in labor costs.

It can be seen from the above data that although the price of textile raw materials has declined over the same period, clothing PPI has narrowed only, and the trend of year-on-year rise has not changed.

This obviously shows that the comprehensive cost of textile enterprises is still rising, and the pressure of cost increase, including excipients, employment and various expenses, has not been reduced. It is still an important task for the industry to work hard to solve the problem of rising comprehensive cost.