How Long Can Traffic Trafficking Last? Inventory Of The Hidden Worries Behind Ali Revelry

Lunar year August, 26, Hangzhou, rainy, it is appropriate to open, trading, voucher, Nash, plaque.

In Wall Street outside the 13 time zone, there is a lot of laughter and laughter.

Such a strong contrast from

The birth day has already begun. In the eyes of those admirers, Alibaba is the most profitable enterprise in China's Internet industry, the promoter and the changer and the creator of wealth in China's retail industry, but in the eyes of those who do not like it, it is a liar, a fake distribution center and a vampire of small and medium-sized sellers.

At the moment of glory,

The central position of the stage was given to those survivors in the Alibaba ecosystem. Just like before the listing of Alibaba, he shared the position of CEO with Lu Zhaoxi, who worked hard for many years.

But everyone knows that even if Lu Zhaoxi goes to the front desk, Alibaba is still the Alibaba of Ma Yun. Similarly, everyone knows that the real ability to dominate the Alibaba ecosystem is still itself, rather than those sellers who are in the glory.

Behind the Alibaba's US $about two hundred billion market value, the survival environment of small and medium-sized sellers on Taobao has been getting worse and worse. Alibaba has relied on traffic trafficking business to get more and more money and earn more and more.

But if a small seller can't find a living space on Taobao, how high is Ali's capacity to produce traffic when Taobao is no longer versatile? What is even more frightening is that even in the United States, the world's most open and pparent capital market, the partnership system Alibaba still insists on can make Alibaba go better in the future?

At least it can be seen that in this ecological chain, Alibaba believes that they are playing the role of "BABA".

Where does Ali myth come from?

Beijing time on September 19th night, Alibaba officially landed at the New York Stock Exchange, after 2.5 hours of opening inquiry, Ali opened the price of 92.7 U.S. dollars, more than the issue price of 1/3.

After a few minutes, Ali's share price climbed to close to $100 and then began to fall, closing at 93.89 dollars.

This means that the Alibaba's first day closing price is $231 billion 400 million, becoming the largest Internet listed company in the world, and the fourth largest technology company in the world after apple, Google and Microsoft.

Meanwhile, Ma Yun also became the richest man in the mainland with the help of Ali's holdings, which is far more than Wang Jianlin, Ma Huateng and Robin Li.

Such a beautiful figure can naturally let Ma Yun, Ali executives and many Alibaba employees wantonly spread their joy, but more and more small and medium-sized sellers who are struggling to survive on the ecological chain of Ali are also worried about the pit fee and the through train for tomorrow.

What is the biggest source of income of the company which has a market value of more than two hundred billion dollars? Ali's core income comes from advertising. According to its 2013 earnings report, advertising revenue accounts for more than half of the total (57%): anyone who has done the Taobao operation knows that the right side of the home page focus map is the diamond booth, that is, P2P, commonly known as the Guan Jian search of the through train, and the way of Taobao's website alliance. According to the amount of the paction, the established Commission is the income of advertising.

In addition to advertising, another part of Alibaba's bulk revenue comes from Tmall trading commissions (25%).

These two businesses constitute the vast majority of Alibaba's commercial structure, that is, to gather the passenger flow with the abundant commodity information (the omnipotent Taobao), and then distribute the traffic to all the stores under the advertisement.

The specific mode is to charge Taobao sellers online marketing, shop decoration costs, collect paction commissions and online marketing fees to Tmall merchants, collect paction commissions and "pit fees" to Juhuasuan sellers, collect membership fees, online marketing and value-added services to wholesalers of 1688 and Alibaba, and charge commission to global sellers.

This business model is concentrated on an English word "traffic" (traffic) on the public PPT on the Alibaba road show.

Bottom discharge

Since the traffic is Ali's core selling product, the natural question is where does Ali's traffic come from? Where does it go?

In the history of the rise of Ali, small and medium-sized sellers can not fail.

The sellers' traffic was mainly from their own publicity. According to Taobao's early sellers, NetEase's technology indicated that most of the original customers of Taobao shops came from the owner's own publicity. QQ group and forums were common marketing tools. Taobao's own ability to produce traffic was very low, and the social concern was not high.

But with more and more small sellers entering the Taobao system, the flow of single sellers can start to overflow, and the demand of consumers from single products and single stores to multiple brands and shops, and Alibaba has discovered huge business opportunities in terms of traffic and guidance.

This business model, which provides comprehensive Commodity services for small and medium-sized sellers to import traffic and distribus two times, has begun to take shape, but this is a very low tolerance ecosystem.

In this ecosystem, the short grass can live very moist, want to grow a big tree, that will be quite difficult.

This is what Ma said: the entrance should be the grassland, not the forest.

At the traffic entrance, only Ali is a towering tree.

The shopping website is strongly suppressed by the Alibaba, which is the best proof that the original shopping guide website is Taobao's external traffic porter who asked the small sellers to pay by themselves.

If such a porter can not do much in every home, the form can not become a monopoly advantage, Taobao naturally welcome, but when beautiful, mogujie.com and other shopping platform has become huge, Alibaba has been mercilessly suppressed.

This is because they encounter Ali's core business essence: traffic trafficking.

According to Ali's financial figures and business analysis, Ali has 8 million 500 thousand active sellers (core traffic importers) and 279 million active sellers (traffic sources).

In this business mode, Taobao is responsible for attracting the attention of 279 million active buyers with many and all sellers. The big brands on Tmall are responsible for buying the premium traffic at high prices, which is the final destination of these flows.

From this perspective, we can see that the producers of Ali traffic are generated by the small sellers inside, and the final consumers are the sellers in the platform, and Ali takes away all the profits.

Such a business model, no wonder Ali can become the most profitable Internet Co in China.

It is important to remind those small sellers that after the listing, Alibaba may pay more attention to their brand image, which will aggravate the pressure on small sellers, and the pressure of small sellers will be greater.

When the omnipotent Taobao is no longer omnipotent

By the end of 2011,

The mall (hereinafter referred to as Tmall) renamed Tmall before announcing the new rules of investment: raising the margin from the original 10 thousand yuan to 50 thousand, 100 thousand and 150 thousand, the technical service fee increased from 6000 yuan to 30 thousand yuan and 60 thousand yuan two files.

This directly drove most of the small and medium-sized sellers out of Tmall, triggering the famous "Taobao besieged city" incident.

But behind the deep level, as mentioned above, Ali is going to be listed, it needs revenue, and it needs to increase profits.

For small sellers? Love and hate. Love is that small sellers can bring more external traffic and popularity to Taobao. The hate is that small sellers are never willing to spend a lot of money to buy advertisements such as direct trains. But for Taobao's system, these small sellers exist for a certain cost.

Alibaba, which lacks the means to import external traffic, has to suppress small and medium-sized sellers, which is also reasonable.

Small sellers are voting with feet to leave Taobao.

A small seller to NetEase technology said: "before the promotion of direct train and other promotional forms just appeared, the promotion effect and benefit ratio is very good. The maximum investment and net profit can reach 2 to 8, that is, 20% of all profits can be used to promote, but with the large number of sellers entering this field, the effect of pushing the market has been getting worse year by year.

In 2010, it could still achieve 5 to 5. Last year, this figure has changed to 2 to 8.

The seller even revealed that some small sellers earn less than the average white collar income every month, and most of the profits are thrown in Taobao's promotion.

But people have to ask questions. When new sellers live in Taobao, it is more and more difficult for them to survive. When those small sellers who can not afford direct pportation fees choose to leave Taobao, can Taobao still be called universal Taobao?

At least a few consumers who were shopping in Ali before and after 2005 told NetEase science and technology: "though the products are getting more and more complete, Taobao can no longer give people the feeling of being able to get rid of the treasure. It is more fake and cold trading. Most searches will refer to products that they do not want to find, but those that have been paid for promotion."

Perhaps Ali is also aware of this. In the future business system, Ali can not sustain this flow of empty handed white wolf.

This is the biggest acquisition of Ali this year: cultural industry, logistics, finance, real estate...

From "no business in the world to business" to "no business in the world", this is Ali's insurance for losing Taobao traffic.

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Unsupervised

Let those small sellers do not rest assured that Alibaba is still Ma Yun's speech, from the beginning to the present, has never changed.

Ma Yun's ideal is to reshape business rules in his virtual world: "the best business mode in the world is the country, and the country is originally a company.

There is a place where a country can be established, that is, on a virtual network.

"Alibaba is buying, selling, and finally who makes rules? We make rules, and those who refuse to obey me get out."

To meet this demand, Alibaba must be firmly controlled by the Alibaba top management team headed by Ma Yun.

Because the HKEx does not allow the "A/ B share double structure" with different rights, Ma Yun has designed a "partner system" to achieve the purpose of controlling the enterprise with a minority stake.

This is very puzzling: the US capital market originally had the A/ B share system, Ma Yun can achieve this goal through the super voting power of 1:10 and so on, but he did not adopt, but still used the self created "partner system".

The official explanation of Ali group is that it is different from the common two-tier shareholding structure in which the super voting shares are concentrated in the hands of several founders. The partner system of Alibaba embodies the vision of a large group of partners. On the one hand, this kind of governance structure can ensure the team's innovation ability, and also ensure the continuity and stability of management, and will not affect the operation of the company due to the retirement or identity changes of individual founders.

But the vision of this group of partners is not so trustworthy. Juhuasuan corruption, 2300 Alibaba robbers, divestiture of Alipay, and suppression of small and medium-sized businesses...

About Ali's sincerity