Cotton Prices Continue To Fall And Cotton Continues To Fall.

Cotton prices are still falling this week. Textile companies are still cautious about buying lint and the spot price of lint continues to fall.

In terms of futures, it is reported that after the listing of new cotton, China cotton group will open its purchase at the price of 14000 yuan / ton, and futures prices will rise.

In September 26th, the average purchase price of the 3 grade seed cotton in the mainland was 3.38 yuan / kg (the price of cotton seed purchase was 14355 yuan / ton), down 0.08 yuan / Jin from last week, or 2.3%; the average price of Xinjiang purchase was 3.01 yuan / jin (the price of 12351 cotton / leather cotton was 12351 yuan / ton) compared with last week, it fell 0.22 yuan / Jin, or 6.8%.

The average selling price of the standard grade lint in the mainland is 15760 yuan / ton, down 898 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 5.4%, down 3525 yuan / ton, or 18.3%; the average selling price of Xinjiang standard lint is 15654 yuan / ton, down 1002 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 6%, down 3858 yuan / ton, or 19.8%.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price of 14355 yuan / ton in November, up 55 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.4%, down 5730 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 28.5%.

The national cotton trading market electronic matching paction in November, the contract price of 13803 yuan per ton, fell 855 yuan per ton last week, 5.8%, down 5688 yuan / ton, down 29.2%.

This week, the Chinese authorities made it clear that the new year will no longer grant cotton sliding tax quotas, and international cotton prices will fall.

In September 26th, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in October was 62.48 cents / pound, down 3.5 cents / pound, or 5.3%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariff. The cost of import of RMB is 11699 yuan / ton, down 491 yuan / ton, or 4% yuan, lower than the domestic market 4061 yuan / ton, the price difference increased 407 yuan / ton compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the cost of import is 13646 yuan / ton, down 284 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 2% yuan, lower than the 2114 yuan / ton in the domestic market, and the price difference increased by 614 yuan / ton last week.

This week, the domestic yarn and cloth market was closed, and yarn prices continued to fall.

In September 26th, 32 cotton combed yarn prices were quoted at 23770 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton, or 0.8%, down 2045 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, or 7.9%, and the polyester staple price was 8560 yuan / ton, down by 160 yuan / ton, or 1.8%, down by 1490 yuan / ton, or 14.8%.

Four, analysis and Prospect

International cotton prices will continue to slide.

This week, the US consumer confidence index for University of Michigan in September ended at 84.6, the highest in July 2013 and 2.1 percentage points higher.

The euro zone September manufacturing PMI initial value of 50.5, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Fundamentals, according to the US Department of agriculture (USDA) report: on 12-18 September 2014, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in the 2014/15 was 35 thousand and 300 tons, a significant increase over the previous week, an increase of 68% over the previous four weeks. The main buyers were China (11 thousand and 700 tons), Vietnam, Turkey, South Korea, Indonesia and Mexico.

On the 12-18 day of September 2014, the net signing volume of US cotton exports was 35 thousand and 300 tons in 2014/15, a marked increase over the previous week, 68% higher than the average of the previous four weeks. The main buyers were China (11 thousand and 700 tons), Vietnam, Turkey, South Korea, Indonesia and Mexico.

In addition, many Chinese buyers in 2014/15 faced severe shortage of quotas, and some foreign and Chinese importers increased the proportion of contract margin to 15%-20%. Therefore, the import of foreign cotton will be restrained.

International cotton prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.

Domestic cotton prices will enter sensitive period.

This week, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI reached an initial value of 50.5 in September, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

On the basis of the two nine Executive Council of the China Cotton Association in September 26th, there was news that the China cotton group was open to purchase by 14000 yuan per ton.

However, the relevant leaders pointed out that this is corporate behavior, and the government does not have the responsibility to subsidize it.

In addition, the new year's new flower listing time may be postponed. Many textile enterprises all reflect the urgency of inventory and strong willingness to replenishment.

It is estimated that domestic cotton prices will enter a sensitive period within a short period of time before and after national day.