Gui Haoming: Our Biggest Expectation For The Opening Of Shanghai And Hong Kong

Shanghai and Hong Kong are opening soon, and the market is full of expectations.

What will it bring to investors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets? It is said that a large number of foreign investors will come into the market, which will push the stock market up.

In fact, this is a misunderstanding between Shanghai and Hong Kong, or just wishful thinking.

The author thinks that the most essential meaning of Shanghai Hong Kong pass is to further open up the mainland capital market through the interconnection and exchange of stock exchanges between the two places.

Not only can foreign funds come in easily, but also domestic funds can go out smoothly, so as to increase the intensity of mutual investment and promote the maturity and prosperity of the mainland stock market.

Frankly speaking, this kind of judgement seems logical and meticulous, but there are many loopholes in essence.

We may as well count the accounts.

After the launch of the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, overseas funds can enter the territory, and domestic funds can also go abroad. The quota for the exit is also fixed, which is 250 billion yuan, 10 billion 500 million yuan per day.

In this way, if the domestic and foreign investors are using the full quota, the amount of capital brought by the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market to the mainland stock market is actually only 50 billion yuan, and the maximum daily inflow limit is 2 billion 500 million yuan.

At present, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has a circulation market value of more than 15 trillion, with an average daily turnover of more than 150 billion yuan. In the face of this figure, the size of Shanghai and Hong Kong's 2 billion 500 million yuan per day is almost negligible.

Moreover, as early as more than 10 years ago, foreign capital could enter the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market by means of QFII channels. In recent years, the development of RQFII has also been very fast. Coupled with other objective ways, it is not difficult for foreign capital to enter the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market.

Therefore, it is hard to imagine that after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, foreign capital will flock in and push the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market up.

As far as the capital market of each country and region is concerned, its commonality is greater than its individuality. The opening of their respective markets, while promoting the free flow of capital, is also effectively affecting the other side, thus gradually producing convergence effect.

Experience has proved that the mutual opening of securities markets in various countries and regions in the world today has played a positive role in the spread of advanced investment ideas, and in the ironing of excessive market volatility and in enhancing the ability to resist risks.

Compared with the overseas market, there are still some deficiencies in the relevant system design of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market. Over the years, the phenomenon of falling or falling between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and overseas markets is the most prominent problem.

After opening the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, there is no doubt that both domestic capital and foreign capital will increase significantly and become more relaxed in management. This will help to speed up the integration of the two markets in related systems and services, especially to promote the maturity and development of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.

Some people will worry.

The problem of investors' lack of rational investment consciousness should be said to be an objective reality that can not be ignored. The way to get the two-way flow of capital is obviously conducive to enhancing investors' sense of rational investment.

Therefore, in a sense, the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong is actually pushing the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market to accelerate the pace of reform and enter the track of healthy and stable development as early as possible.

As many investors have already mentioned, after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, with the further opening of foreign capital into the market, the blue chips of Shanghai stock market, which has been undervalued for many years due to investment ideas, should be improved, and it is expected to set up a new benchmark for Value Investing.

And when the investors in the Shanghai stock market can invest in the offshore market independently, they are not listed in the mainland for the sake of institutional reasons.

Enterprises can also become the targets of their investment. This will also become a great driving force for deepening the institutional reform of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market.

This situation may not be obvious in the initial stage of the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, but as time goes on, the situation will change greatly.

In the final analysis, the greatest significance of opening up Hong Kong and Shanghai links is not to introduce foreign capital, but to maximize the depth of opening and reform of the capital market, which is exactly what we need at present.

Therefore, expect

When the market price rises, people may be disappointed at that time, because the short-term positive effect of the Shanghai and Hong Kong links has been fully reflected in the past half year's market, so the market is likely to greet the official opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong through a very calm way.

However, the long term effect of Shanghai and Hong Kong will be gradually revealed in the future. Its value is not limited to the introduction of overseas funds to drive up share prices, but also to speed up its maturity and prosperity while further activating the market.

For such a prospect, investors can be full of expectations.