How To View The Rising Price Of Cotton Prices In Xinjiang

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What does the Xiaobian net introduce to you about how Xinjiang cotton price rises?

Since October, Xinjiang cotton has sounded "rising tone". By October 14th, the purchase price of seed cotton in Akesu, Kashi and other places was 6.20-6.30 yuan / kg (41% of clothing and 12% of moisture regain), and the highest purchase price exceeded 6.70 yuan / kg, which rose by 0.40-0.50 yuan / kg compared with 10.

Other regions such as Bachu, Mengaiti and Pratt & Whitney also come to the voice of rising cotton prices.

Recently, the debate about whether cotton will usher in the turning point or whether the stage is good is fierce.

I believe that the near future

The reasons for the rise are mainly as follows:

1, the sudden growth of the buying body.

As of 13 days, a total of 169 ginning plants of Xinjiang Corps received the plaque of "target price reform and processing enterprises". Local enterprises also received most of the tablets. Because of the centralized audit of enterprises, the cotton enterprises in the national day after the national day were "explosive" listing, and there was a situation of "competing for thousands of competitions".

2, seed cotton supply did not catch up in time.

The majority of cotton in the Corps is machine picked, and it needs to be picked up once more than 95% of the boll opening and cotton leaves are dropped.

Due to the bad weather this year, the cotton picking work of the Corps has not yet been launched.

Xinjiang's local cotton is mainly picked by hand, and this year's cotton growth is postponed. Seed cotton picking is postponed for 25-30 days compared with the same period last year. At present, most cotton fields only pick about 50%.

3, Xinjiang cotton production reduction is expected.

Affected by bad weather in Xinjiang's cotton growing areas, the agricultural sector in the northern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang after the national day shows that the output per unit area of seed cotton is not as good as the previous estimate. Some of the yield is only 220-300 kg / mu, which is lower than the previous estimate, causing the market's pessimistic anticipation of the decline in Xinjiang cotton production this year.

4, there is a demand for replenishment in downstream enterprises.

Up to 14, the purchase price of the Xinjiang cotton platform rose by 200 yuan / ton, from 3128 to 14400-14500 yuan per ton, and the mainland's pre sale price was 15400-15600 yuan / ton, up by 200-300 yuan / ton.

Some cotton enterprises reflect that the rising price is due to the rising enthusiasm of textile enterprises.

Can the above factors support cotton prices? I believe that cotton prices can be formed at a good stage, but blindly pursuing high prices is not desirable.

Xinjiang seed cotton listing is postponed, cotton enterprises "no rice pot"; market new cotton shortage, national cotton store stop throwing, cotton import quota does not increase, textile enterprises centralized replenishment, these factors are "phased".

Is it not a "passive water"? This year, the total output of domestic cotton is estimated to be 6 million 600 thousand tons (the national cotton market monitoring system data), plus the expectation that the market will restart the storage and sale of cotton stores in March 2015, and the consumption capacity of downstream enterprises has not improved. The situation of oversupply of cotton resources is obvious, and the affordability of textile enterprises is limited. Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises reflect that at present, the price of 32 woven woven combed yarns is around 23000 yuan / ton, 32 combed yarn prices are around 25000 yuan / ton, and the difference between the same level of India and Pakistan yarn and Vietnamese yarn is 2000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton more than that of 6-7 months this year, so it is expected that there will be more room for reducing the price of domestic yarn. However, Xinjiang seed cotton can be listed in late October. The replenishment of textile enterprises is only small and small. If these factors disappear, Xinjiang cotton will go up.

A large textile company in Binzhou, Shandong, said that the price of cotton purchased this year is expected to be 14200-14500 yuan / ton. At present, the price of 15500 yuan per ton of Xinjiang cotton is about 1000 yuan / ton above the "bottom" price, which has been postponed for the time being.

Buy cotton and wait for the opportunity.

In summary, I believe that the rise in cotton prices in Xinjiang is only temporary, with a phased nature and does not exclude suspicion of individual speculation.

Remind the industry to be calm and prudent.