Strong And Weak Adjustment In The Cotton Market

Here world Clothing and shoes Xiaobian of the network to introduce the cotton market is strong and weak overall is still the adjustment market.

　 Market Review

ICE cotton futures: the most active December contract was opened at 64.25 cents on Monday, rising 0.92 cents at a high level, rising at 0.86 on Tuesday and falling to 0.86 cents on the high side, the highest point in the week, the highest at this week; 0.45 higher on Wednesday and 0.45 cents on Thursday. Friday's closing of 63 cents, this week dropped 1.10 cents, 56485 hands reduced 24344 hands, 98597 positions reduced 1095 hands.

Zheng cotton futures: the main 1501 month contract opened at 13410 yuan on Monday, opened at 205 yuan, and opened at 13410, the lowest point this week. Tuesday continued to go up and up 140 yuan; Wednesday opened lower and fell 105 yuan; Thursday went up and down 145 yuan; Friday's closing price of 13750 yuan, this week rose 385 yuan, trading around 3 million 506 thousand hands increased by about 883 thousand hands, positions increased 502 thousand hands 3104 hands.

Two. Analysis of market influence factors

Fundamentals

1, the macro level. The US side: the number of unemployed Jin people at the beginning of last week was 264 thousand, far better than the market expectations, the former value was 287 thousand; in October, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was 20.7, 20 was expected, and the former value was 22.5; in October, the initial consumer value index of University of Michigan was 86.4, 84.1, and the former value 84.6; in September, the retail sales month rate was -0.3%, -0.1% was expected to be 0.6%, and the US producer price index fell by 0.1% in September, the first decline in a year, and the poor retail sales and producer price index, which made investors cautious about the US economic prospect. Euro area: Germany's ZEW economic situation index in October is 3.2, 15 is expected, the former value is 25.4, the economic climate index is -3.6, 0 is expected, and the former value is 6.9; the euro zone October ZEW economic climate index is 4.1, and the former value 14.2; the ILO unemployment rate is 6% in August, the expected value is 6.1%; the unemployment rate in Britain is in September, which is in line with the expectation and the former value is; and there is news that Greece will withdraw from all the bailouts from the euro area and the IMF, which causes market anxiety, and the market thinks its economy is far from enough strong. If the rescue is ended, the market is worried that the European debt crisis will be staged again; the IMF has cut down the euro area's economic growth forecast for the next two years, and investors are pessimistic and the stock market has plummeted. China's exports increased by 15.3% over the same period last year, and imports increased by 7% over the same period last year, which is better than expected in the market, and the trade surplus of that month was 31 billion US dollars. The growth of imports showed that the import policy of foreign trade has shown a significant increase in the early stage of trade support. The general trade import growth in September has dropped by 2.5%, reflecting the weak domestic demand. The Bureau of Statistics announced that CPI rose 1.6% in September compared with the same period last year, rising 0.5% than expected, in which food prices increased by 2.3% and 1.3% respectively compared with that of the previous year. In September, PPI decreased by 1.8%, down by 0.4%, lower than expected, and the deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission's Economic Research Institute, Song Li, pointed out that the unfavorable factors of China's economic fundamentals have been released and are at a stage of stabilization and accumulation.

2, ICE cotton futures rebound blocked down, the overall continuation of the adjustment market.

At the beginning of October, there were some factors favorable to the ICE cotton price. In the first place, ICE's deliverable cotton inventory dropped to a low level during the year, and inventories declined sharply, indicating that the current market supply was tight. The cotton boll opening rate in the United States was 77%, 73% in the previous week, 85% in the five year, 22% in the previous week, 15% in the previous week, 24% in the five year, 22% in the five year, and 2% in the five year. In some areas, the cotton harvest slowed down slowly in some areas, the harvest progressing slowly in previous years, and the quality of some cotton crops was feared. The US government provided the cotton farmers with a month long loan at the benchmark price of five cents / pounds. The two is the US Department of agriculture's October report on supply and demand. There are many advantages and disadvantages in the United States. The report shows that in the year of 2014/15, the US cotton output is estimated to be 16 million 260 thousand packages, which is estimated to be 16 million 540 thousand packages in September. The inventory estimate at the end of the year is 4 million 900 thousand packages, which is 300 thousand bags lower than the September estimate. This shows that the US cotton supply pattern is changing to the right side, although it is still in excess of supply, but at least it has been out of the bad time. Short term supply is tight, as well as factors such as output and inventory in the US have improved, supporting ICE cotton futures price rising, and the December contract rose to 65 cents from 61 cents earlier.

Falling on Tuesday, global stock rises and bad demand outlook have led to a fall in cotton prices and a partial rebound in the first two weeks. US Department of agriculture will China Cotton import The estimate was revised down to 7 million packs, estimated at 8 million packages in September, compared with 14 million 100 thousand packages last year. The decline in China's demand has made the global outlook even worse. In the year of 2014/15, the estimated annual inventory of global cotton was 107 million 110 thousand bales, which was estimated at 106 million 290 thousand packages in September. The International Cotton Advisory Committee said on Wednesday that the global cotton end of year inventory forecast for 2014/15 is down to 21 million 470 thousand tons from 22 million 250 thousand tons forecast in September, still at a record high, with three consecutive years of oversupply, and global cotton prices will continue to bear pressure. The India Cotton Advisory Committee expects that India's cotton production will increase from 39 million 800 thousand packets to 40 million packages in 2014/15, and the export will be reduced from 11 million 800 thousand packages to 9 million packages. At the end of the year, the stock will increase from 3 million 200 thousand to 3 million 800 thousand bags, and the output will increase, and the demand market will be depressed. In terms of sales data, sales figures released by the US Department of agriculture on Friday showed that the US cotton export net sales of 7000 packages in 2014/15 were much lower than expected, mainly due to the cancellation of more than 20 thousand packages of orders, of which China had cancelled 14800 orders. The global market is bad, sales data are weak, and the peripheral market is not good. The global stock market and crude oil prices have suffered heavy losses, and the price of cotton has been reduced continuously. {page_break}

3, Zheng cotton futures prices continue to rebound, the tight supply stage, so that short-term cotton prices can be supported.

Judging from the spot lint market, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises has already bottomed out, the purchasing intention of replenishment warehouse has increased, the national storage has stopped running, the import quota of cotton has not been increased, the market circulation of cotton resources, especially the high-quality cotton resources is lacking, and the textile enterprises are generally not interested in real estate cotton, but the supply to Xinjiang has increased. In some cotton producing areas of Xinjiang for a week of low temperature weather, frost in some areas may cause cotton production to decrease, and seed cotton picking is postponed for more than 20 days compared with previous years. Cotton farmers do not know clearly about policies, and also slow down the progress of sales. The purchase of textile enterprises in the mainland, as well as some imported cotton traders, also went to Xinjiang for inspection. They looked at goods from the platform or in the factory, inquiring and purchasing, the supply of stages was tight, the price of lint spot and seed cotton had risen to a certain extent, and the price of the platform of Xinjiang, Akesu and Bachu increased by 200-300 yuan / ton, and the seed cotton purchase price rose by 0.2-0.3 yuan / kg. Zheng cotton futures also maintained a rebound, the 1501 month contract up to 13960 yuan, close to 14000 resistance near, but such a rise within a certain limit, it is difficult to have a breakthrough market.

China's cotton price index 3128B cotton index fell 14785 points, compared with last Friday's 211 points, the index is still down, but from the three days after this week, the decline has narrowed considerably and the spot price has stabilized and increased. After the fall of domestic cotton prices, the purchasing cost of textile enterprises has been reduced, profits have been shifted from negative to positive, and some time ago, enterprises have reduced production capacity, reducing the supply of some varieties, and reducing the profits of individual varieties. This has also attracted some enterprises to start again, but the actual price increase or sales volume is still more difficult. Friday (October 17th) This will restrict the rebound of raw material prices such as cotton and so on. Recently, enterprises have increased procurement to Xinjiang, but they are still mainly buying and buying.

New cotton acquisition: cotton farmers in Xinjiang area have gradually improved their understanding of the policy, and their willingness to sell has improved. The purchase price of seed cotton has risen slightly, and the textile enterprises are mainly Xinjiang cotton. This makes the price of Xinjiang cotton raise a certain extent, and the cotton enterprises with resources also sell as soon as possible to avoid risks. However, the progress of the mainland sale is slow, the cotton seeds in the mainland are few, and the cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. After picking, they do not plan to sell them, and continue to wait and see. The state is planning to give certain quota subsidies to several cotton producing provinces in the mainland, and the specific policies need to be promulgated.

The price difference of cotton at home and abroad: on Friday, October 17th, the price of imported cotton price index M cotton was quoted at 74.32 cents, and the discount rate of imported cotton 1% tariff and sliding duty was 11691 yuan / ton and 13921 yuan / ton respectively. Compared with the cotton price index 3128B cotton, the price difference between domestic cotton and imported cotton was 3094 yuan / ton and 864 yuan / ton respectively, the difference was narrowed by 67 yuan / ton and 132 yuan / ton respectively compared with October 10th (last Friday).

-- technical side

This week, the first time to rise and suppress, only on Monday showed a rise, then fell for four consecutive days, ending the previous two weeks of rebound trend, from the trend, the market is empty, the overall trend is the adjustment of the short trend.

This week, high and high walk, showing the form of upside, continuation of the rebound trend, and is the largest rally in nearly four weeks, the trend is strong, and is expected to continue to attack the latest, concerned about the 14000 resistance price near, beware of falling.

　　 Three, future prospects and operational recommendations

Germany's growth as a main force in the euro area is sluggish. Industrial production in the euro area is also declining, consumption growth is slow, investment growth is almost stagnant, and the short term is hard to pick up. In terms of monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve has tightened gradually, while the euro area tends to be loose. China's current inflation is at a low level, which is conducive to maintaining loose monetary policy.

In the short term, many profits in the US have caused the cotton prices to rebound repeatedly. However, the rally will be difficult to turn into a trend rising trend within a certain range. The global demand outlook is becoming more and more bad, and the market is a global market. China is the biggest buyer of cotton in the world, and global cotton stocks may be surging due to the decline in demand in China. In the future, the sales situation of the United States cotton is not optimistic. As a big country of cotton production, India's output inventory is increasing, so it is urgent to find a sales market.