Economic Situation: Spanforming The Downward Pressure Of The Economy Into A Motive Force For Scientific Development

Since 2013, China's economic development has faced severe challenges and achieved important results in the face of complex situations. At present, the economic operation is generally stable, and structural adjustment has changed positively, and economic development has many favorable conditions. However, under the combined influence of short-term and long-term factors, the economy is facing downward pressure.

　　 China's economic fundamentals are good at the same time. Downward pressure

China's economy has maintained sustained and healthy development and its economic structure has been continuously optimized. From the perspective of economic growth, GDP grew by 7.7% in 2013, unchanged from the previous year; in the first three quarters of 2013, the growth rate of GDP increased by 7.4%, and continued to maintain a steady and healthy development trend. From the perspective of industrial structure, the growth rate of the three industrial added value in 2013 was 4%, 7.8% and 8.3% respectively. Among them, the third industry grew the fastest, accounting for 46.1% of GDP, 2.2 percentage points above the second industry, the first time in the proportion of three industries, and completed the structural adjustment task proposed in 12th Five-Year. In the first three quarters of 2014, the added value of the third industry grew by 7.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to be faster than that of the second industry. The value added of the third industry increased to 46.7% in GDP, and the economic structure continued to optimize. At the same time, the employment situation continued to improve. In 2013, 13 million 100 thousand new jobs in cities and towns reached a record high. In the first three quarters of 2014, the number of new jobs exceeded 10 million, and the annual target tasks were completed ahead of schedule. The rise of consumer prices is far below expectations, and prices remain stable.

　　 Economics The foundation for stability and stability is not strong enough, and there is downward pressure. At present, the situation of China's economic and social development is still complicated, and favorable conditions and unfavorable factors coexist. From the international perspective, there are still many unstable factors in the recovery of the world economy. The global economy is undergoing in-depth adjustment and international competition is becoming increasingly fierce. From the domestic perspective, the conditions for supporting the development of our country are undergoing profound changes, and the deep-seated contradictions in economic operation are highlighted. They are in the throes of structural adjustment and growth rate shifting to the critical juncture of climbing over the ridge. At present, the outstanding problem is that the foundation for economic stability and good progress is not strong enough. The downward pressure on economic growth is obvious, and it is difficult to maintain moderate growth. The downward pressure on the economy can be seen from some major economic indicators: the growth rate of GDP in China has maintained a high level of 7.7% in 2012 compared with that in 2012. However, the actual growth rate of industrial added value reflecting the growth of the real economy is 9.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 2012. In 2013, China's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 19.6%, a 1 percentage point lower than that in 2012, and the investment in manufacturing industry reflecting the real economic situation increased by 18.5%, a 3.5 percentage point lower than that in 2012, which is the new low since the beginning of 2012. In 2013, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 11.5% in real terms, down 0.6 percentage points from 2012. From 1 to September in 2014, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 8.5%. The growth rate of fixed assets investment (excluding rural households) was 16.1%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12% (the actual growth rate of 9.9% after deducting the price factor), which decreased compared with the same period last year, reflecting a more obvious downward pressure on the economy. Making domestic demand, especially consumer demand, the main force to stimulate economic growth, is still a formidable task before us. Another noteworthy problem is that the scissors gap between the consumer price index and the producer price index has further expanded. While the consumer price index (CPI) has leveled off, the producer price index (PPI) of industrial producers has dropped for more than 30 months. The continuous divergence of the two trends shows that there is a difficulty in the growth of the real economy.

The downward pressure on the economy will have adverse effects on economic and social development, and we must attach great importance to it. First of all, it will increase the difficulty of resolving excess capacity. Serious overcapacity in some industries is a serious problem for us. To solve excess capacity, we need to maintain moderate economic growth and favorable economic environment. Second, it will increase the potential risks in the financial and financial field. The downward trend of the economy will inevitably bring negative effects on financial revenue and increase the difficulty of alleviating the risk of local government debt. The downward trend of the economy will lead to an increase in the bad assets ratio of banks, which is not conducive to maintaining the balance between supply and demand of credit, and increasing the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises. Third, it will increase the difficulty of spanferring mode, adjusting structure and promoting reform. If the economic downward pressure is not alleviated for a long time, it will squeeze steady growth, adjust the structure and promote room for reform, thereby affecting the spanformation of the mode of economic development, readjustment of the economic structure and the smooth progress of comprehensive deepening reform.

　　 scientific analysis The main reason for the downward pressure on the economy

Scientific analysis of the main causes of economic downward pressure can effectively implement the current and long-term targeted measures to promote scientific development.

Long term factors that trigger downward pressure on the economy. First of all, in the first 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing rapidly. At the same time, it has also accumulated problems such as irrational economic structure and low efficiency. Changing the mode of economic development, adjusting the economic structure and improving the quality and efficiency of economic development are the core tasks of the present and future period. That is to say, we can no longer simply pursue high speed, but we must develop a number of goals in economic development, structural adjustment and quality and efficiency in development. Secondly, China's population structure is undergoing important changes. The aging of the population is becoming more and more serious, and the growth of labor supply is slowing down. In the past, the situation of relatively abundant labor supply is no longer available, and the rigidity of labor costs is rising. This will affect the economic growth. Third, China is facing a grim situation of tight resource constraints, serious environmental pollution and degeneration of ecosystems. The construction of ecological civilization is a long-term plan concerning the well-being of the people and the future of the nation. We must not pursue the old road of high speed at the expense of environment and resources. We must follow the path of sustainable scientific development. Taking into account economic and ecological development, we need to reduce the rate of excessive economic growth. Fourth, after the international financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, new changes have taken place in the international economic environment. In particular, the developed countries are aware of the structural problems such as overdevelopment of service industries and hollowing out industries. On the one hand, they try to achieve re industrialization, and on the other hand, intensify trade protectionist measures, making international economic competition increasingly fierce and the international economic environment becoming increasingly severe. This will have a longer-term impact on China's economy.

Short term factors that must be actively addressed. First of all, there are many uncertainties and uncertainties in the external environment. At present, the world economy is slowly recovering, and the developed countries are stepping out of the worst stage of the crisis by adopting a series of measures to rescue the crisis. But the underlying contradictions in the capitalist system have not changed, and the root cause of the crisis has not disappeared. Moreover, the extraordinary measures adopted by the western countries to cope with the crisis have, to some extent, prevented the deterioration of the crisis, but also increased the burden on the economy after the recovery stage, making the current economic recovery fragile and weak, and the process is complicated and confusing. The recovery of the world economy presents new characteristics, which has both opportunities and challenges for China's economic development. Secondly, at this stage, the growth rate of labor and capital input slows down, and the ability of scientific and technological innovation needs to be improved, which makes capital formation and total factor productivity growth decrease, and also affects economic growth. Third, in the process of coping with the international financial crisis, a series of measures to stimulate the economy have played an important role in resisting the impact of the international financial crisis, stimulating domestic demand and maintaining the moderately fast growth of our economy. However, policies and measures in the special period will inevitably have some impact on other aspects of economic and social development, and increase the difficulty of solving existing problems such as overcapacity, local government debt risks and financial risks. Digestion of these effects will also bring downward pressure on the economy.

Take scientific development as the direction, take effective measures to solve the downward pressure of the economy.

To overcome the downward pressure on the economy, we should distinguish between the long-term and short-term factors that bring down the pressure and take corresponding countermeasures and measures. In response to long-term factors, we need to correctly understand the objectivity and inevitability of the current economic growth from high to medium to high speed. Based on the new stage and characteristics of China's economic and social development, following the basic laws of the operation of socialist market economy, we should comprehensively co-ordinate efforts to maintain stability and face the reality of economic growth rate shifting and slowing down. We should seize the opportunity to speed up the adjustment of the economic structure and improve the quality of economic growth. In the daily work of macro regulation and control in dealing with short term (cyclical) fluctuations, we should grasp the general direction of achieving the grand goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, consolidate the economic foundation for comprehensively deepening reform and promote economic and social development, act on the right track, make a difference, overcome difficulties, and spanform downward pressure into a motive force for realizing scientific development and accelerating the spanformation of economic development mode. Since the eighteen Party's Congress, we have further innovating and developing the theory and practice of building socialism with Chinese characteristics. These theoretical and practical innovations are powerful weapons that guide us to cope with the downward pressure of the economy scientifically.

We must unswervingly deepen the reform in an all-round way. Under the new conditions, we must rely on comprehensive deepening reform to solve all kinds of outstanding problems faced by China's economic and social development. The reform of the economic system is the key to deepening the reform in an all-round way. The core is to deal well with the relationship between the government and the market, so as to make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and play a better role in the government. We must always implement the spirit of reform and innovation in all aspects of economic work, promote sustained and healthy economic development, and strive to achieve the goals and work arrangements determined by the eighteen and eighteen second, third and fourth plenary sessions of the party.

Adapting to the new situation, we have achieved tangible results in changing the way, adjusting the structure, improving the people's livelihood and promoting sustainable development. Faced with the complicated situation at home and abroad, we should see that the fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed. Starting from the phased characteristics of China's economic development, we should adapt ourselves to the new situation and maintain a normal mindset in strategy. We should see that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, enhance confidence in strategy, strive to seize opportunities, attach great importance to and take precautions against risks in tactics, plan ahead, take precautions, and take timely measures to minimize negative effects. Adhere to the general keynote of steady progress and continue to handle the relationship between steady growth, promoting reform, adjusting the structure, improving people's livelihood and preventing risks, deepening reform, giving full play to the advantages, innovating the train of thought, and taking all factors into consideration, so as to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the economy and social harmony and stability.

We should innovate macroeconomic regulation and control ways and ensure that the economic operation is in a reasonable range. In the wake of the ups and downs of the economic situation in 2013, on the basis of summing up past experience of macroeconomic regulation and control, we clearly put forward the minimum limit for maintaining steady growth, ensuring employment and the upper limit of preventing inflation. As long as the economy is running in a reasonable range, we should concentrate our efforts on catching the way and adjusting the structure, so as to enhance market confidence and stabilize social expectations. Over the past year, practice has proved that the effect of China's macroeconomic regulation and control innovation is very obvious. First, it clarifies the quantitative boundaries of the control area, and enhances the scientificity, rationality, spanparency, and the feasibility and maneuverability of the regulation policies and measures. Secondly, we should make sure that employment should be placed in a more important and more priority position. As long as the level of employment is guaranteed, the lower limit of growth and the upper limit of price can have a certain flexibility, which fully embodies the concept of human oriented development. Third, emphasize short-term macro