Guo Shiliang: Behind The Activation Of China'S Stock Market

According to statistics, at present, the scale of financing by leverage is close to 700 billion yuan, which shows that margin trading is unusually hot.

However, at the end of last year, the scale of the two financial institutions was only 346 billion 527 million yuan.

As for the end of the first half of this year, the scale of the two financial institutions was no more than 406 billion 408 million yuan.

Two, the explosive growth of financial scale is actually a true portrayal of market warming.

At the same time, it is also a reflection of the importance of changing market risk preferences.

Over the years, real estate, trust market and other related fields have the characteristics of high profitability, which has attracted a lot of social mobility.

Among them, the real estate market is undoubtedly the most obvious area of "absorbing gold".

Over the past ten years, it has been the golden ten years of the real estate market development.

Because it has a high investment return rate, and has an excellent value preservation and appreciation effect, it is also highly sought after by the capital.

However, with the great pformation of the domestic economy and the gradual promotion of heavy taxation policies such as fiscal and taxation reform, the effect of maintaining and increasing the value of the real estate industry has begun to be questioned by the market.

As of September this year, the average price of new residential buildings across the country continued to decline for fifth months.

Meanwhile, stocks in major cities across the country also showed signs of a sharp rise.

At this point, some of the liquidity gradually choose to withdraw from the real estate market, and enter the field of investment advantage.

As for the trust market and related fields, because of the long existence of rigid payment, trust products, public bonds and so on have all seen a large-scale growth trend.

There are also some low qualified issuers.

With the bottom of the country, investors do not hesitate to go into related fields.

As a result, the market's potential credit risks continue to accumulate, and the risk-free interest rate of the society also rises.

Obviously, in the face of the scale of more than 10 trillion of the trust industry, the state's "bottom up" difficulty has also been greatly improved.

In 2014, it belonged to the first year of breaking rigid payment.

Among them, the maturity of trust products in 2014 increased by 5 over 2013, and the annual trust products can be expected to expire as high as 5 trillion.

With the partial breach of Zhongcheng trust and the outbreak of the substantive breach of the super day debt, the investors who participated in it broke out immeasurably.

It can be seen that in the environment of the real estate market turning point and the attractiveness of the investment market such as trust and so on, the Chinese stock market will undoubtedly become the main choice channel for these investment funds.

It is worth mentioning that as the threshold of the two financial settlement has been greatly reduced, it also directly promotes the enthusiasm of these funds in the stock market.

It is undeniable that the rapid growth of the two financial sectors has played a significant role in boosting the stock market.

However, after the extreme expansion of the two financial scale, I am afraid the market will play a significant pressure.

Generally speaking, the investors who participate in the two fusion mostly focus on the medium and short-term operations.

On the one hand, participants need to anticipate the potential market for advance and prepare for profit making at any time.

On the other hand, participants have to consider the cost of the two financing.

According to incomplete statistics, the paction costs of the two financial pactions include not only the annual interest rate of the margin trading, but also the Commission, stamp duty, overnight interest, pfer fees and so on.

Among them, the annual interest rate of financing can be as high as 9%, which is obviously higher than that of the same period.

Obviously, participation in the two financial system.

The first thing to consider is risk.

The premise of effective control of risk is based on the short and medium term operation cycle.

As a result, the rapid expansion of the two financial scale has exposed the highly speculative nature of the market. Once the market changes, it will have a huge impact on investors.

In addition, in the context of a rebound in the stock market, the accelerated market entry of P2P funds is also the focus of the market.

Function.

However, compared with the two financial businesses, some P2P platform's stock allocation business exposes greater risk.

Among them, engaged in

The average leverage ratio of stock allocation business is too large.

Generally speaking, the average leverage is 5 times, and more than 15 times the leverage ratio.

Obviously, under the premise of lack of strict wind control, no matter for the platform or for investors, this amazing leverage ratio is like "playing with fire".

According to Guo Shiliang, under the background of reforming anti-corruption and advancing together, boosting the stock market has become a political task. This is also the foundation for the rise of China's stock market.

On the basis of a marked rise in investment confidence, the stock market plus leverage has contributed to a rapid rebound in the stock market.

However, when market speculation continues to be crazy, it may be time for us to be vigilant.