New Cotton Supply Blocked Cotton Prices Began To Rebound

Recently, cotton market has slowed down, and cotton futures have steadily increased.

In addition, the market funds are excited.

It also includes changes in the cotton market policy and overall expectations for the future cotton market.

Cotton farmers are willing to cotton.

Slow progress of public inspection

According to China cotton information network statistics, as of October 26th, 2014 cotton processing 861 cotton processing enterprises processing cotton, the inspection volume is 415 thousand and 695 tons, of which Xinjiang public inspection volume is 353 thousand and 229 tons, Shandong is 19 thousand and 933 tons, Hebei is 18 thousand and 346 tons, three

The proportion was 84.97%, 4.8% and 4.41%.

In the same period, the total quantity of cotton tested in the whole country was 1 million 714 thousand and 894 tons in 2013, including 1 million 340 thousand and 707 tons of Xinjiang cotton and 374 thousand and 187 tons of cotton in the mainland.

In 2014, the total volume of public inspection was only 24.24% in 2013, 26.34% in Xinjiang and 10.22% in the mainland.

The progress of public inspection in the cotton producing areas in the mainland is the slowest.

The reasons for slow progress of public inspection are mainly weather factors and cotton farmers' psychology of cotton planting.

Xinjiang area was affected by rainfall and frost weather in 9 and October.

Therefore, there is a preliminary indication of a reduction in production.

The direct subsidy policy for 2014/15 was not implemented in the mainland, which had a certain impact on the mindset of the cotton farmers in the mainland. The price of the cotton mill was very low at the initial stage of purchase, which led to the acquisition of cotton farmers.

There is a gap, resulting in the psychological growth of cotton.

New cotton warehouse receipt has not yet been generated.

Cotton warehouse receipt to step up registration

After a period of zero growth, cotton warehouse receipts began to register in mid October. By the end of October, the amount of warehouse receipts registered in 2013/14 reached 485. The total volume of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 529. Although there was a great difference in the volume of contract deliveries, the increase in registered warehouse receipts was not a problem from the point of view of the speed of warehouse receipts generation.

From the 1411 delivery month contract, the early rebound was due to the lack of warehouse receipts.

At present, the amount of registered warehouse receipts increases, so the price will be pferred to the warehouse receipt cost.

According to the price of matching market, if we register it as warehouse receipt, plus warehousing fee and capital cost, the 1411 contract will be limited in space.

Due to the slow progress of cotton inspection in 2014/15, there is no new cotton in the registered warehouse receipt, and there are 2 and a half months of delivery from the 1501 cotton contract.

Therefore, there is still great uncertainty in the January contract, which is mainly affected by the speed of new cotton listing and paction price.

In the short term, the supply side of cotton is the main factor affecting the period price. The rebound of cotton prices depends on the number of warehouse receipts and the cost of warehouse receipts.

Therefore, we should not blindly catch up with more funds, and there will still be opportunities for shorting capital.

In January, the main force still looked at whether the 14000 yuan could break through, which was temporarily defined as the cotton price.