P2P October Dangerous City Runway Plus Fraud Swindle

Here world

The Xiaobian of the network introduces the dangerous city of P2P in October: runway and fraud.

[compared to last year, this year is not called a rush, but this year's fraud can be called fraud.

Shi Pengfeng, chief operating officer of net loan home, told the first financial daily that last year's problem platform was mainly based on self financing and dismantling standards.

"Compared to last year, this year is not called a rush, but this year's fraud can be called fraud."

Shi Pengfeng, chief operating officer of net loan home, told the first Financial Daily reporters that last year's problem platform was mainly based on self financing and dismantling standards, and this year mainly based on fraud.

Because fraud platforms are generally difficult to operate for a long time, fraud is poor and easy to detect, so the number of victims and funds involved is less than that of last year.

Net loan home data show that as of the end of October 2014, there were a total of 106 P2P platforms, including 15 in Zhejiang and 14% of the total.

In October, there were 31 problem platforms, of which 5 were located in Zhejiang.

Regionalism

Since October 2014, there have been 5 Zhejiang platforms, namely, financial wealth, financial services, venture capital, legendary investment and bank finance.

According to one industry insider, there is also some coincidence in such concentration degree in Zhejiang.

"Zhejiang itself is a big province of capital. It has developed smoothly under the impetus of the small businesses such as Wenzhou's small businesses. However, since 2012, a large number of people began to play with money.

The industry said that Zhejiang's economy is an export-oriented economy, but this year as the export situation has slowed down, once industrialists or domestic sales or "playing with money".

"Compared to the average financing cost of Shanghai 12%, Zhejiang's average financing cost is relatively high to reach 18%."

Guo Cheng financial CEO Wang Jianzhang said that in addition to Zhejiang, Sichuan also has certain geographical characteristics, and this feature is more concentrated in the early, a large number of problems Guarantee Corporation.

"For Sichuan, it is a legacy problem, and the problem of guarantee has led to the bank's credit crunch on the P2P industry. Finally, we all died together."

Wang Jianzhang said.

Cold winter period

Affected by the overall economic and financial environment of the market and the business cycle of enterprises, in the eyes of the P2P industry, the fourth quarter of the year is called the "winter period" that the demand for loans increases but the amount of money invested is reduced.

"By the end of the year, the private lending industry has tightened up and the funds are tight. Every year in 10, 11 and December, the whole industry is short of funds, and every industry and enterprise must go through the" year-end ".

Shi Pengfeng told the first financial daily.

"In the first half of the year, the funds were abundant, and the platforms exposed were mostly swindled. In the second half of the year, funds were tight, and the platform for running was becoming a rising trend."

Wang Jianzhang said that not all platforms were "premeditated" at the very beginning, but at the end of the year, enterprises accounted for accounts, borrowers overdue, increased bank lending, erroneously predicted the liquidity of the platform, overestimated the strength of wind control and "forced" to fall.

Wang Jianzhang said that the problem platform broke out in October. Besides the loan side, it was also accompanied by the characteristics of the investment end capital economic cycle.

On the one hand, it is related to the flow characteristics of P2P funds in the second half of the year.

"With the gradual increase of the P2P platform, investors have basically formed the habit of high interest rates in the first half of the year, and tend to be conservative in the second half of the year."

Wang Jianzhang said that in the second half of the year, the conservative performance of some investors withdrew money to a relatively safe platform. On the other hand, due to the recent improvement in the stock market, some investors also turned to the stock market.

Economic downlink environment

Yuan Shanxiang, executive secretary of China Internet Finance integrity Association and executive director of Beijing Internet emerging economy research institute, told the first Financial Daily reporters that the root cause of P2P's running is the increasing pressure of economic downfall, and the real economy is getting more difficult. The loans of the relevant financial institutions at the end of the year are difficult to recover due to the difficulties in the operation of the enterprises, or the interest rates of the entities are insufficient to support the interest of the loans, resulting in overdue or bad debts, which leads to the phenomenon of running away.

A deep industry insider said that after many years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy showed a downward trend. It is also very normal. Just like overcapacity, not all people and enterprises in the market can make money.

In the complex and diverse P2P platform of affiliated enterprises, a link will go wrong like Domino, and the associated enterprises will have problems one after another.

"Whether the economy is healthy or not, it is a fact that the economy is in a downward trend. Under such circumstances, the breaking out rate of financial default is also very normal."

The deep industry insider said.

"

The shortage will continue to affect the development of the real economy in a period of time. Finance is the core of all economic activities, especially the real economy can not be without financial support, so this situation will not be eliminated in the short term. "

Yuan Shanxiang said.

Lever control

"Too much emphasis on P2P's single run is meaningless, and a platform for running a road breach is not necessarily a bad thing. Only when there is a running road can the industry continue to be marketed."

Chen Yu, partner of Ren He Zhi Ben asset management group, said that due to the low default rate in the past, there was no concentrated outbreak of running events, causing investors to understand the risks of borrowing.

The regulatory rules that have been appealed but have not yet appeared have again become the focus of discussion in the runway.

In view of the characteristics of the "fraud" platform this year, people in the industry say that future regulatory regulations should emphasize the importance of pparency and openness.

Specifically, it includes the operation mode of the platform, the mode of wind control, the appropriation of funds to the platform, and the real bad debt rate of the platform, which directly determines the real information of the platform's living conditions.

"In the current information disclosure is not in place, the fraud platform can be successfully packaged, cheaters have the possibility of fish in troubled waters."

One industry insider said that because of the opaque information, the platform with the main operation mode of dismantling and deadline mismatch will only erupt when there is no east wall to be demolished.

Shi Pengfeng said that according to the experience of traditional finance and foreign P2P supervision, it is suggested that regulators in the future can make use of the "lever" restriction.

"There is a leveraging concept for the stability of any platform and the actual big business. If a platform can operate in a stable and controllable manner within 100 million of the turnover, then when the platform will overextend the volume, such as magnifying 10 times and 100 times, the risk will be greatly increased and uncontrollable."

Shi Pengfeng said.

The setting of lever parameters is a complex process.

Shi Pengfeng told the first Financial Daily reporters that according to the different types of leverage of P2P platform, there should be some differences between them. For example, the platform of paging loan platform does not advance to every loan commitment. Because of its risk actually dispersed in the investor group, the leverage base can be appropriately enlarged; and the platform leverage rate should be relatively small.

The platform of commitment payment can be divided into mortgage and credit categories from the perspective of business mode. Different types of bad debt rate are different. At the same time, we must adjust the leverage restriction by combining the dispersion of platform funds and the strength of the company's risk reserve.

Shi Pengfeng explained further.

"The essence of the P2P industry lies in the full dispersion and the bad debt rate is in the controllable range."

An insider said he knew the legend.

From the establishment to the final capital chain break, there are only three borrowers in the platform, and the loan amount is 200 million, 100 million and 50 million respectively.

"The platform has 1000 targets. Even if each mark is 1 hundred million, the individual mark is only 1/1000. It is still scattered enough.

But if a platform has a total of 200 million of the funds to be collected, of which one will have 100 million yuan, then the platform will not be dispersed even if the other 100 million are collected by thousands of indicators.

Shi Pengfeng said that dispersion is not the absolute value of the amount and quantity of the target, but the relative proportion of the target.