The Three Factors Of Upward Inertia Are Uncertain.

As early as the beginning of last week, the author has very clearly indicated "should buy the big blue chip stock", and proposed to guard against the "main single stock" distribution behavior.

From last week's situation, large cap stocks almost daily lead to Zhuang stocks.

And many varieties of gem and small and medium sized boards are indeed declining.

Last Friday, banks and other heavyweight movements were unusually strong. Even more than one bank share was once hit by a daily limit, which is rare in the past.

Bank stocks are so strong that investors can easily associate themselves with "super main force or coming into the market", so they can feel the strong feeling of A shares involuntarily.

However, the author is skeptical about this, mainly based on the following two points: first, the "Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong" which had just been watered down in the early stage was deliberately or unconsciously mentioned. Under such circumstances, the early cold and strong varieties of the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong were delayed and the strength of the stocks changed again.

Second, it is possible to make market capitalization at the end of the month, because there are more public funds in the heavyweights, which often raise the market value at the end of the month.

That is to say, the intention of the main force is difficult to understand at the moment, at least for a while to see whether it dare to continue to fight high.

Shanghai composite index is much stronger than I expected, but this strength is not enough to make the writer change his cautious attitude last week.

Last week, the author said: "Shanghai Composite Index even if it can create a new high, there is a" spread triangle "of suspicion, unless the market can rise to a certain height, so that this disadvantageous form has been dispelled.

The news on the weekend was much more favorable, because the US stocks rose and reached a record high, and Japanese stocks went wild. This is good for Hong Kong stocks and blue chips in the A shares being hyped up.

However, as for the trend of A share, it is likely to be against the outside market, and investors should not guard against it.

Although the external market is strong, there are still some worries. This is the US dollar's rise. If the US dollar continues to rise, it will be bad for emerging markets.

The renminbi is probably the only currency in the world that has risen against the US dollar. The strengthening of the US dollar will increase the difficulty of RMB going further.

The US dollar interest rate will rise in the future, and the RMB will obviously lower interest rates.

There are not enough reasons for strengthening.

This week, even if the stock index has dropped, it is unlikely that it will drop sharply.

After the stock market shocks, there will be a significant adjustment. I believe that the stock market adjustment opportunities will be much larger after this week, because by the middle of this month, the market will be affected by at least three uncertainties: one is the follow up performance of the external market and the US dollar, the other is the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, and the three is the end of the year.

Will it speed up?

In connection with Shanghai and Hong Kong, we need time to see how the parties concerned are speaking. If the test is endless, it will lead to aesthetic fatigue. In the middle of this month, the number of new shares will be clear.

In terms of operation, the low price stocks such as iron and steel stocks have been very strong these days. The slogan of "eliminating low price shares" in the market has started to ring again. However, the author still recommends avoiding it, because the future "registration system" and "delisting system" will make the concept of low price stocks redefined sooner or later.

Of course, investors with sensitive hands and good disk feel can also participate in short-term speculation, but should pay attention to risks.