Textile And Garment Industry: A Consumer Leader Who Recommends Performance Improvement, Focusing On Sports Thematic Investment

The textile and garment industry remained weak in the three quarter of 2014, and its performance was generally in line with expectations. From the three quarterly reports of our key companies, there are 6 enterprises with a growth rate of more than 20%, and 7 enterprises with 0-20% growth rate, 10 of which have fallen in performance. The first three quarters of 2014 A key After the removal of YOUNGOR, which is more affected by real estate, the home textile enterprises increased their revenue by 1% over the same period last year. The net profit of non profit increased by 15% over the same period (mainly due to the larger contribution of Hai Lan's home). After excluding the Hai Lan home and YOUNGOR, the income in the first half of the year fell by 12%, and the net profit fell 16%. In the first half of this year, the income of key textile manufacturing enterprises increased by 7% compared with the same period last year, and net profit increased by 12% over the same period last year.

Sub industry three quarterly performance differentiation, consumption leader performance is stronger, men's clothing and high-end brand pressure is still larger. (1) men's wear: Men's clothing at the price of men's wear leading sea Lan's home has continued to grow against the trend with its "mode innovation + management excellence", and the performance of other traditional men's clothing brands has generally been greatly adjusted downward. (2) outdoors: the industry is in the stage of rapid development, the main business of the Pathfinder is steady, the green field network is progressing smoothly, the performance growth is over 26%, and the performance of Jialin Jie is down 28% due to the limited capacity and the delay of subsidy examination and approval. (3) casual wear: the first three quarters of the performance division is larger, Semir apparel three quarter casual wear business has been positive, children's clothing rapid development led to an overall increase of 22%, the United States and the clothing terminal pressure is still larger, performance decline 41%. (4) home textiles: the order data will be positive, and the industry will have a recovery growth. Roley home textile three quarterly performance improved slightly better than expected, actively promoting channel change and actively explore the transformation of mergers and acquisitions, fuanna electric business continues to maintain high growth, "big home" is also in steadily Advance. (5) women's wear: the terminal is still relatively weak, especially the high-end brands. The performance of the group has been sharply adjusted downward, and the cost is further under pressure. (6) textile manufacturing: Cotton direct subsidy policy brings downward expectations of cotton prices. Short term cotton mills' gross profit bearing pressure, Xinjiang subsidy policy implementation brings thickening performance, cotton direct subsidy policy rules implement long-term good cotton spinning enterprises.

The company's expected performance exceeded expectations: Hai Lan's home, Semir clothing, Luo Lai home textiles, Pathfinder, and China Textile shares. The companies whose performance is lower than expected are: card NDI Road, long Zi share, Jia Linjie and Mei Bang dress. According to the different growth rate of performance, it can be divided into three levels: (1) the performance of the consumer leader is strong, and the outdoor industry still maintains a high growth rate: the Hai Lan House insists on the innovative mode of "high performance price ratio + standardized service", and the net profit has increased by 50%+ compared with the same period last year. The adjustment of the Semir clothing and leisure clothing has been completed in the three quarter, and the growth rate of the children's clothing has been improved. The layout of the children's clothing business has been improved and maintained high growth. The long-term layout of the children's related industry chain is worth looking forward to. The performance of the first three quarters increased by 22% over the same period last year. After two years of adjustment, the home textile industry has been basically built up, the order will be positive, the performance has increased by 17%, the growth of the main business of the Pathfinder is steady, and the growth of the main business is steady through the green field network. make The outdoor ecosystem of "goods + services" is progressing smoothly, and the performance in the first three quarters increased by 26% over the same period last year. (2) textile manufacturing enterprises are growing steadily: Huafu color spinning stock has been digested smoothly, benefiting from the subsidy from the Xinjiang, the performance in the first three quarters increased by 22%; the Lutai A industrial chain is perfect, the overseas production capacity is laid out, and the high-end custom shirts "Junyi" has been launched. The former three quarter's performance increased by 5% compared with the previous year, and the functional order of China textile joint stock was stable, and the performance of military orders was guaranteed. The performance in the first three quarters increased 57% over the same period. (3) the traditional franchisee dominated brand performance pressure, especially the decline of the high-end brands: the performance of the seven wolves in the first three quarters was 39% lower than that of the previous quarter, while the three quarter performance of the 28% year's decline was 28%.

Investment recommendations: the three quarter of the division of performance significantly, the fourth quarter continues to recommend the performance of the improvement of the consumer leader, Hai Lan home, Semir clothing, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna and AOKANG international. After two years of adjustment, the home textile industry is expected to usher in a resumption of growth, the outdoor industry growth slowed down, the performance of other sub sectors is more obvious, the mode of innovation and positive transformation of the company's performance is better, the traditional franchise mode based brands need to change. We expect that the performance differentiation trend will become more significant in the four quarter. Therefore, in the second quarter, we will focus on the improvement of consumption leading products: (1) Hai Lan's home: conform to the parity consumption trend, mode innovation has strong entry barriers, management excellence leads to endogenous growth, and it is expected that the growth rate will be 30% in the next three years. (2) Semir clothing: casual wear business has been positive, children's wear business has maintained a high growth, and actively layout children's industrial clusters.

(3) Roley home textiles: orders will be positive, performance is stable, and actively promote the transformation of channels and mergers and acquisitions. (4) Fu Anna: the electricity business business maintains the high growth, steadily advances "the big household" the business. (5) AOKANG International: performance improvement is expected to be built in the fourth quarter, and the International Pavilion strategy has achieved initial results. In addition, we can focus on the subject matter: (1) the small market value of the actual controller changes: Dayuan shares, de cotton shares and Jiangsu three friends. (2) benefiting from the target of "China's sports industry reaching 5 trillion" in 2025: China Sports Group (sports consumption), Pathfinder (outdoor ecosystem) and noble bird (industry integration expectation).