Tong Shihao: Bubble Is Not Focused, Globalization Is The Key.

There is no doubt that there is a bubble now. In Silicon Valley, the rental of startups is high in ten years, and there are many ten years of tenancy. These landlords are not fools. They know that the price is the most expensive and will be signed with you for ten years. The last ten year lease was still in 2000.

Looking at the domestic market, the financing of start-ups is very high. In 2009, Li Kaifu financing of innovation works, three people's team would have to estimate the value of US $twenty million. At the beginning of 2010, when I joined Xiaomin capital's Liu Qin to invest in millet, the valuation was $thirty million. Google's first round of financing is valued at only $sixty million. Now, the valuation of a project is $twenty million, but can every company become millet and Google? This is not a bubble.

The reason behind it is related to too much money. The interest rate that the Fed gives is very low, there is a lot of money to find a reward, otherwise the money is there to depreciate. After launching the gem in 2009, dozens of companies went public, and many investors obtained huge returns from the initial low investment. Now that hot money is pouring in, it is unrealistic to repeat the good old days. Many people find me asking me to throw a millet. Do you think that millet can be copied to many places?

Of course, BAT's frequent acquisitions in recent two years will also push valuations to a certain extent. They compete with each other more and more fiercely and have time to copy, so that the effect is immediately obvious. In the past, no merger and exit mechanism was very bad. Only IPO, and now BAT is willing to spend money on acquisitions, I think it is healthy.

In 2011, there was a small capital downturn, because too much money was circulating in the system. With group buying as the representative, many companies get money, but the market structure will not come down. BAT these big guys can not play an impact, Tencent voted F group and several other companies did not do it. At that time, the giants themselves were also spanforming themselves. They badly needed mobile Internet traffic and could not play a big role. After three or four years of development, every company has a layout in the mobile terminal, and it is a good mode to distribute the flow in the subdivision area, so that the company holding shares or shares can be realized.

This year, individual industries are also hot, like Internet banking and O2O, because we see that telecommunications, retail and other industries have been subverted by the Internet. It's a bit crazy, but it's not absurd.

Bubble to bubble, this is just a manifestation of capital market. If you observe the trend of mobile Internet industry, you can find several interesting data comparison: in 2005, the number of Internet users worldwide was 1 billion, now 3 billion, and the median growth rate is 2 billion. The population is almost 1/3 from China. The number of Internet users has doubled 30 times. Why is the stock market still the same?

From the global perspective, mobile Internet is just a beginning stage, and there will be more market space in the future. So although the project is more expensive now, I will still vote. Because I will see the number of netizens growing, and I will bet on the next company. As long as the price is not too ridiculous, I won't mind too much. No bubble, how to make money? No bubble, no one will start a business. Entrepreneurship is a crazy thing and a low probability event.

The valuation of the private market may be even higher than that of IPO, because VC/PE is afraid of missing a good project or willing to pay the money. But this is just a spanitional period. Secondary market Fluctuations will affect the primary market, but there is a time difference.

Yes foam Yes, there are. Will it break? Yes. But even if the bubble burst, it doesn't matter. There will be no disaster like 2000. In the 2000 bubble period, there were only 100 million Internet users in the world, and so many companies appeared at once. They were so expensive that only millions of people were using the products, and enterprises could not cash in. It is surely unreasonable that a company can often estimate billions of dollars.

Now, if not, 3 billion of the population is online, and the number will increase in the future. And the world has truly the Internet experience and market only the United States, China, perhaps plus Japan, South Korea, and other places did not have more than ten years of competition generated by Internet Co. Otherwise, UCweb will not become the number one browser in India. The cheetah cleaning master will not have huge users in the world. So Chinese entrepreneurs should not worry about whether there is a bubble. Instead, they should think about how to get out of the sea, grab the market outside, and create a global company. In fact, Internet Co in China is very competitive overseas, so long as they want to know how to land and localize, how to find local talents to join in, and truly make a global product.

It is not necessarily bad for a bubble to burst. People will not be so greedy, not crazy, and make good use of their money. Many good businesses have emerged after the bubble burst. Facebook was founded in 2004. If the US economy and capital market were very hot then, Zuckerberg would not be so focused on his business. I hope that the bubble will be broken, so that I can lower the cost of investment. I hope some people who should not take money do not take the money, and the really good company will get the money and move on.

even if financing The environment is affected, the enterprises break up, and I can afford to save them. When I was in crisis in 2008, I voted for 15 companies, but less than 5 companies needed more money than me. When it comes to bubbles, everyone says there should be more money. There is no secret. But too much money can also lead to the fever of entrepreneurs, so it is not necessarily a good thing.

Many people are also asking whether the listing of Ali will be a watershed. The window period of listing is still not there. No one knows this, but Ali has always had a sense of the capital market. The timing of the two listing is very good, because there are enough bankers to analyze them, and they know when to finance the most appropriate.

Millet and Ali's mentality is more like, do not rush to appear on the market. Now some people say that the domestic market is saturated, and millet development will encounter bottlenecks. These people do not pay attention to overseas markets. Lei Jun seeks Google's Hugo, plus millet ecological chain, which will make millet full of imagination in overseas. I am still saying that China has reached the best era of Internet entrepreneurship, and there will still be room for growth in the next ten years.