2 Trillion Scale Myth Is Difficult To Continue Cash Management, Return Goods Basic Source

The main reason why the fund has gained popularity this year is mainly due to the myth of high yield created by the monetary fund at the end of last year.

However, as the crowd rushing to purchase, the fund investors made it clear that investors should lower their expectations, and it would be hard to see the same high returns as they did last year at the end of this year.

Scale or adjustment

Recent "

"The pattern of the market has given many investors confidence that funds have been flowing to the stock market and investors have regained their enthusiasm for buying.

The quarterly report of the fund three shows that the scale of public funds has reached a record high. In the past October alone, 16 new funds were set up and the number of issued funds was higher than the same period in the past 4 years.

The total size of the newly established fund in October was 49 billion 240 million yuan, and the average issuance scale of the single fund rose sharply last month, hitting a new high in the past two years.

Among them, the monetary fund was newly established to the largest scale, raising a total of 29 billion 550 million yuan.

But it is worth noting that

The three quarter of the balance of the vane declined for the first time because of a prolonged downturn in yields.

Brokerage statistics show that the end of the first quarter of this year, the balance of treasure size exceeded 500 billion yuan mark, reaching 541 billion 275 million yuan, the end of the two quarter to further increase to 574 billion 160 million yuan.

By the end of the three quarter, in the context of the stock market's money making effect and the return of money fund yields, the size of the balance treasure fell for the first time, to 534 billion 893 million yuan, a decrease of about 6.84%.

"Subject to the continued looser monetary policy, the yield of the monetary fund is still at a low level. In the long time of sluggish returns, the size of the IMF scale is likely to be adjusted in the future."

A public fund analyst admitted that at present, the income of the IMF dropped by more than 1 percentage points compared with the beginning of the year.

The director of fixed income investment of a medium-sized fund company in Shenzhen said that because of the lag in the peak period of investor entry and the high return period of fund income, the scale of Monetary Fund will continue to rise in the near future even though the current income has dropped to a certain extent.

However, although the overall yield of the IMF decreased, there was also a high yield of "baby" products with outstanding performance.

According to the latest WIND data, Ping An Bank (000001) Ping An surplus - ping an Dahua daily gain seven annual yield reached 11.22%, income treasure Changsheng currency (080011) also reached 8.14%, ranking the forefront of the yield.

Of course, the above funds maintain a high rate of return is still a minority phenomenon, fund managers generally said that by the end of this year, early next year, monetary policy will be moderately relaxed, investors need to lower the expected yield.

According to Zhang Yong, chief investment officer of the cash management group at fixed income headquarters, the current stage is to release liquidity to revitalize the economy, so the liquidity in the second half of this year will not be too bad, and the probability of ultra-high yield at the end of last year and the beginning of this year will be low.

"If the yield reaches 6% to 7%, that is to say, the risk-free interest rate of the whole society will reach a relatively high level, and the interest rate of industrial financing will almost reach 9%-10%. This is not a long term social commitment," said the reporter. "In China's current environment, the interest rate of money market in 3%-4% is relatively normal."

Another fund manager's explanation is that the GDP growth rate is about 7% this year. If this year's risk-free interest rate is as high as 7% last year, "that is to say, all the money earned will be returned to interest.

Therefore, from the present to the end of the year, liquidity will not be a big problem. On the contrary, it will be more relaxed and will not appear at the end of last year.

Han Haiping, director of the fixed income Department of the financing fund, according to the reporter, the central bank actively guided the launch of the currency through the open market, which is different from the general practice of lowering interest rates in previous years. This directing policy will last until at least next year. After achieving the goal of stabilizing the economy, the main focus of the government will still be put on the structural adjustment, and the possibility of a full scale reduction is unlikely.

However, fund managers generally believe that the monetary fund can not compete on a single basis. Its target should be to allocate assets that are higher than current deposits, but the convenience is comparable to that of demand deposits.