Where Will The Stock Market Go In The Economic Pformation?

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Xiaobian network to introduce the economic pition period, the stock market down?

At present, our country is

In the process of pformation, the economy is now facing a special period of "three phase superposition" (that is, the shift of growth rate, the period of structural adjustment and the period of digestion of the previous stimulus policy). The most direct manifestation of this "new normal" is the trend of gradual decline in economic growth.

At present, the market generally believes that the stock market will be bull market in the period of economic pformation in China.

Is this argument consistent with objective facts? First, look at the situation abroad.

Stock market performance in South Korea's economic pition

Stock market performance in Japan's economic pformation

Stock market performance in the period of economic pformation in Germany

Historically, in the period of economic pformation, stock market tends to go up.

During the period of economic pformation from 1990 to 2000, the growth rate of GDP decreased gradually from 20% high in 1990. During the period, the stock market fluctuated greatly and remained roughly the same. But after the economic pformation and the 2007 2000, the composite index rose by 375.95% and nearly 4 times.

From 1970 to 1990, Japan changed its economic structure. During the period, the economic growth rate dropped from 17.90% in 1970 to 8% in 1990, and the Nikkei index increased from nearly 2000 points to nearly 24000 points. 1989 also created a historical high of nearly 39000 points in the Japanese stock market, and the period was over 19 times during the period.

Germany's economic pition period was from 1970 to the beginning of this century, during which Germany made three economic pformations. For the first time in the 70s of last century, the German DAX index edged up 8%, and second times in 90s of the last century. During the period, the DAX index of Germany increased by nearly 5 times. The third was the DAX index of Germany in the beginning of this century and 2001 to 2007.

More than 1 times.

Good buy thinks that in the period of economic pformation, the gradual downward trend of economic growth is predictable, and the stock market tends to perform well.

The reason may be the pformation of the economic structure, often accompanied by the upgrading of the industrial structure, the slow growth of the traditional industries, the gradual growth and development of the emerging industries, and the profit margin of the emerging industries is much higher than that of the traditional industries, and the overall profits of the enterprises have been raised. Meanwhile, with the gradual release of the dividend policy, the stock market often brings positive benefits and drives the stock market up.