Yi Xianrong: The Opening Of Shanghai And Hong Kong Links Means Half The Battle.

It is estimated that the market did not anticipate. In November 17th, Shanghai and Hong Kong started to operate and did not appear to be "killing" as expected. On the contrary, the two markets have gone out of an upsurge, or the stock market has fallen sharply. In view of the two-way trading between the two markets, although Hongkong's North Investment "Shanghai Stock pass" is better than the South investment "Hong Kong stock pass", that is, the cold market in North and south, but neither stock market in the two places has seen a hot scene. On the contrary, the stock index of both places has dropped, especially the Hang Seng Index of Hongkong has a larger decline.

I remember that in the second half of 2007, the news of "Hong Kong stock through train" came out, and immediately stimulated the Hang Seng Index of Hongkong to go straight to 32000 in November of that year. But 7 years later, the real start of the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, the stock index has not risen, otherwise the sharp decline, and the opening of the market expectations will have more domestic residents entering the Hongkong stock market. The same reality is contrary to this expectation. In this regard, the market has to find out why.

In fact, such a situation should be normal, and it is also the result of rational choice between the two markets. Because the concept of Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong started in April this year, the two markets have been speculation in another round. During this period, the Shanghai composite index has risen by more than 17%, while some Hongkong and Shanghai stock market stocks have been fried. Therefore, when the expectations of Shanghai and Hong Kong pass into reality, the speculation in the two markets is normal. Because this adjustment not only provided a profit opportunity for the early Shanghai and Hong Kong merchants, but also provided an opportunity for rational reflection for the future development of the market. If the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges are opened, the market share price will still rise sharply, and the market will face more problems and risks.

Moreover, after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, why are there more investment in the north, while the South investment is cold? There may be many explanations. But the main reason may be related to the investor structure, investor orientation, trading rules, information acquisition, RMB exchange rate changes, and the current international market situation.

For example, Hongkong is dominated by institutional investors, while domestic market is dominated by individual investors. The structure of investors in the two markets is different. Naturally, there will be great differences in the way they prepare to enter the market and the way to get information. For example, in the Hongkong market, both domestic economic information and information about domestic listed companies are far better than domestic residents' understanding of Hongkong market. For example, not only a lot of Hongkong residents are engaged in various economic activities in China, but they are very frequent in and out of China, and since 1993, Hongkong residents have started buying and selling H-shares, red chips and even into the domestic B share market, which has long been familiar with domestic economic and financial markets. On the other hand, after Premier Li Keqiang put forward the Shanghai and Hong Kong links in April, various investment institutions and media in Hongkong promoted the A shares that were about to be traded, which made Hongkong investors feel familiar with the A share market before they were opened. Therefore, the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong shares will soon be exhausted.

However, for domestic investors, because of the limitation of information dissemination, and the fact that domestic media do not know much about Hongkong's economy, most of them can only be a general concern, not to mention the specialized research of Hong Kong listed companies. Under such circumstances, domestic investors are Hong Kong Stock market information is extremely asymmetric. Coupled with the fear of a sharp domestic stock market crash after the US financial crisis in 2008 (such as the Shanghai composite index fell from 6134 to 1649 points), and the domestic stock market's long-running slump in the past 7 years, and the huge profits of real estate investment, domestic investors had no confidence in the stock market, and most people had long ago talked about the stock market. In this case, when a new unfamiliar Hongkong equity market When they are open to them, it is sure to have a long process to really mobilize their enthusiasm to enter the market. This is why the majority of domestic investors are in a wait-and-see attitude and not enter the market after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong.

When the South investment is on the sidelines, the amount of investment to the south is only 17%. This atmosphere will soon cause great infection to the stock market in Hongkong, that is, domestic investors are also on the sidelines of the Hongkong stock market. The stock market of Shanghai and Hong Kong stocks that had been hyped up by the Hongkong stock market could only be spared, and the Hongkong stock market crash was inevitable.

However, we should see domestic Investor It is not going to give up the opportunity to invest in Hong Kong stocks, because at present, China, which is a materialistic society with the ultimate goal of "profit", will make many people inflow if it is profitable. What's more, the Hongkong market of the 7 million population has to face 1 billion 400 million population and China's big market. However, at present, domestic investors do not understand and are familiar with the market in Hongkong, and feel the risk is high and adopt a conservative and cautious attitude. If domestic investors find Hongkong stock market profitable, the situation will be quite different. It is in this sense that the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong has provided an opportunity for domestic investors to increase their wealth.

Of course, the other half lies in whether the Hongkong stock market really becomes a market for domestic investors to gain returns and increase wealth, rather than a market where small investors are seriously plundered and exploited in China's stock market a few years ago. To do that, it depends on whether the Hongkong stock market can retain its current style rather than the "A share" of Hongkong stock market. Of course, Shanghai and Hong Kong have opened the international door to China's capital market, and the estimation of domestic investors' assets to the global market is a trend.