Cotton Prices Fall To Stimulate Government Intervention In China'S Cotton Imports Decline

Here world Clothing and shoes Net Xiaobian introduced to everyone that cotton prices fell to stimulate the government's launch, China's imports fell by 36%.

In November 17th, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released the November Global Forecast of global production and demand. The weak international cotton prices will stimulate the government to intervene in the market.

At present, the new cotton harvest in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end. Global cotton output is estimated at 26 million 300 thousand tons this year, which is basically the same as last year. Because of the delay in planting this summer, the new cotton harvest in India will last until the beginning of next year. The bad weather results in the unit yield falling to 35.5 kg / mu. Although the planting area is increased by 4%, the output will remain at 6 million 800 thousand tons. China's cotton production is expected to be 6 million 500 thousand tons, down 7% from the same period last year. The main reason for the reduction is the shrinking of planting area. With the drought eased, the output of US cotton will return to 3 million 600 thousand tons, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. The floods in Pakistan last month did not have much impact on cotton production. The output is expected to increase by 1% to 2 million 100 thousand tons, with an average yield of 50 kg / mu.

In 2013/14, the average price of the A index was 91 cents per pound, higher than the long-term average of 70 cents / pound. However, the average price of the index is expected to fall to 74 cents / pound this year. Because of the high cost of cotton production and the continuous fall in cotton prices, many major cotton producing countries have introduced relevant policies to support cotton farmers. Recently, China announced that it would provide 2000 yuan / ton subsidy to cotton growers in the 9 cotton producing provinces in the mainland, and the subsidy will be released in accordance with 60% of the subsidy amount in Xinjiang, and not more than 2000 yuan / ton. The government of India launched the lowest price support project and began acquiring new cotton in some cotton producing areas. However, due to the emphasis on quality, the current purchase volume is only 1% of the expected output. In October this year, the government of Pakistan announced that the price of cotton support was 3000 rupees / kg. The Pakistan trade company (TCP), which did not acquire cotton since 2005/06, will purchase new cotton in support of prices in November.

Despite the fall in international cotton prices, many Spin There will be no large-scale procurement before the cotton price goes further down, so there will not be a significant increase in global cotton consumption. It is estimated that global cotton consumption this year is 24 million 400 thousand tons, up 4% over the same period. At the beginning of this year, China announced its investment in the textile industry in Xinjiang. China's cotton consumption this year will reach 8 million tons, an increase of 6% over the same period. India's consumption will grow for three consecutive years, estimated at 5 million 300 thousand tons. Pakistan's consumption will increase by 2% to 2 million 300 thousand tons, but whether the target can be achieved will depend on the sustainable power supply provided by the textile mill. After the collapse of the hot mansion, the textile industry in Bangladesh has gradually recovered. It is expected to increase the consumption of cotton in this year by 1% to 954 thousand tons. Since 2011/12, Vietnam's consumption has increased significantly, and this year is expected to reach 700 thousand tons, an increase of 9% over the same period. Consumption in the United States will increase by 7% to 803 thousand tons.

Global year cotton The volume of trade will fall by 11% to 7 million 900 thousand tons. In order to stimulate domestic cotton consumption, the Chinese government will limit its quotas in 2015. It is estimated that China's cotton imports will be reduced by 36% this year to 2 million tons. However, imports from Southeast Asia and other places have increased. Bangladesh imports will reach 1 million tons and Vietnam will reach 750 thousand tons. US cotton exports will grow by 7% to 2 million 400 thousand tons, and India's export volume will drop 39% to 1 million 200 thousand tons, mainly due to the increasing demand for India cotton from India textile mill.