He Wan Man: Three Conjectures About Registration System

Since the meeting of the Standing Committee of the State Council on Wednesday clearly put forward the need to "pay close attention to the reform of stock issuing registration system", registration system has become a hot spot in the market. Some media even take the "registration system as the starting point" to do the title. It is predicted that "the dawn of listing will seem to be getting closer to more than 600 IPO companies still waiting at the gate of Financial Street Fu Kai building in Beijing". If more than 600 families really welcome the "dawn of listing" together, will the two tier market collapse?

　　 Conjecture 1: is the registration system in full swing?

On Wednesday, the Standing Committee meeting of the State Council made ten decisions on financing difficulties and financing. Among them, sixth articles were: "we should press ahead with the reform plan of issuing stock registration system, cancel the continuous profit conditions of stock issuance, and reduce the threshold for listing small and micro enterprises and innovative enterprises. We must establish a quick mechanism for small refinancing in capital market and carry out a pilot scheme for public financing. This paragraph is actually divided into three meanings: (1) unlisted companies stock issue (IPO) and listing, the premise is to amend the securities law. Generally speaking, the registration system will be implemented in 2015. Second, refinancing of listed companies. The current refinancing, from the enterprise declaration, to the SFC approval, less than half a year, longer than a year. Now, the "quick mechanism" is put forward, which can quickly take place. Third, equity financing is a smaller financing way, not in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and has nothing to do with the IPO registration system.

　　 Conjecture two: Registration system Is it not for trial?

Guo Shuqing, the former chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, once asked, "IPO is not going to fail?" now, the registration system is coming. Some people say, "Guo asked" finally had the answer. In my opinion, registration system still needs to be examined, and the key is what to examine. Take the Alibaba, announced in March 16th this year, launched the listing of the United States, May application materials. Because of the US Securities Regulatory Commission's SEC inquiry, IPO has been delayed several times, only the Prospectus has been changed three times. From the changes, we can see the main points of the SFC inquiry, such as the profit model, the detailedly detailedly detailedly detailedly detailedly detailedly list of Alibaba from the Alibaba, and the specific selection criteria. Even mainland enterprises (including listed A shares) went to Hongkong. list The stock exchange and the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission were never indifferent and easily registered. I think this is a financial attribute, a bank of millions or even hundreds of thousands of loans, banks have to repeatedly review, not to mention the public companies, to raise funds to millions of people! Here, "trial" is not only the exchange and the securities and Futures Commission, but also includes the sponsor, underwriting agencies, accountants, auditors, law firms and other intermediaries pre audit, I believe that after the implementation of the registration system, the regulatory authorities will be more stringent supervision of intermediaries.

　　 Conjecture three: before and after registration system?

In view of the fact that there are now more than 600 plans Listed companies Queue up there, and by 2015 this year, we will definitely not finish it. It has been suggested that new and old decisions should be made, that is, the audit system has been queued up, and the new registration system will be introduced. The law is serious. Since the registration system is put into effect from a certain date in a certain month, how can the stock issued today be audited and issued? It is registered again tomorrow. Is it not a mess? The author's observation is that although there are more than 600 queues, there are not many. Taking the establishment of the new issuance examination committee in May this year as an example, the largest number of 20 (4 unapproved) seats in September will reach 9 at the least in June. Basically, the last month's meeting will be able to issue and digest this month. Unlike the previous two years, the trial committee meets every day, and there will be thirty or forty in a month. In fact, this means that it has passed. (unless there is a "post event"), according to the current audit, it will not be too late (even if you have been in line for two or three years), so wait for the new laws and regulations.

To put it another way, registration system is indeed a major reform of IPO. But as soon as the registration system is established, the IPO will rush to the top, or in order to let more than 600 queues rush out quickly before the registration system, they will speed up artificially, which is extremely irresponsible for the market and hundreds of millions of investors. I believe the management will not let this happen.