Do You Understand Industrial Economy In October 2014?

1. October

Affected by weak domestic demand and slowing external demand, the growth rate of industrial production, investment and exports has dropped since October, and the pressure on industrial operation is still greater.

The main features are as follows:

First, the growth rate of industrial production is down again.

In the 1-10 month, the added value of above scale industries increased by 8.4% over the same period last year, down 0.1 percentage points from the first three quarters.

Among them, the growth rate in October was 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from September. After a short rebound in September, industrial production growth slowed this month, indicating that industrial production is still facing greater pressure.

From the aspect of the ring ratio, the industrial added value in October was 0.52% higher than that in September.

Divided into three categories, in October, the added value of the mining industry increased by 4.7% over the same period last year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in September, ending the three consecutive months of downward trend; the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 2.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over September; the growth of manufacturing industry 8.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, is the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of industrial added value this month.

In terms of industries, the growth rate of the electronic equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, general equipment, special equipment and other equipment industries, such as metal products, non-ferrous metal smelting, ferrous metal smelting, chemical raw materials and chemical products, has dropped considerably. The growth rate of the consumer goods industry, such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, textile and other industries, has increased rapidly, and the pportation equipment manufacturing industry has also rebounded along with the acceleration of railway investment, and the growth rate of the automobile industry has also continued to accelerate.

Judging from the output of major products, the growth rate of automobiles has increased considerably, the growth rate of steel has increased slightly, the growth rate of cement has narrowed down, while ethylene, ten kinds of non-ferrous metals, power generation and crude oil processing volume growth have dropped considerably.

According to the regional perspective, in October, the industrial added value in the eastern, central and western regions increased by 6.8%, 8% and 10.4%, respectively, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 93 months.

Figure 1 growth rate of industrial added value over 2011.1-2014.10 above scale

Two, the export of industrial products maintained a relatively fast growth.

In 1-10, the value of export delivery for industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.6% over the same period last year, 0.2 percentage points faster than the first three quarters, and 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year.

Among them, the month of October increased by 8.3%, although it has slowed down compared with September, it still maintained a relatively fast growth, indicating that China's industrial exports still maintained a good momentum.

Figure 2 2011.1-2014.10 export value for industrial exports above Designated Size

Three, industrial investment continues to grow at a low level.

In 1-10 months, the industry completed investment of 17 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.4 percentage points over the first three quarters, down 5.2 percentage points from the same period last year, and continued to maintain a low growth rate.

Among them, the investment in mining industry increased by 2.2%, and the manufacturing industry increased by 13.5%, which decreased by 1.4 and 0.3 percentage points respectively over the first three quarters, and the investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 17.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

From the main industries, the growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry and the overcapacity industries such as coal, black metal and metal products in the earlier period of rapid growth in general equipment and special equipment dropped considerably. The growth rate of investment in agricultural and sideline food processing industry was accelerated, and the growth rate of investment in the pportation equipment manufacturing industry continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate.

Industrial private investment increased by 16.4% over the same period last year, down 0.4 percentage points from the first three quarters, down 4.1 percentage points from the same period last year, and manufacturing investment increased by 16.8%, down 0.2 percentage points.

This year, the difference between the growth rate of private investment and the growth rate of all fixed assets investment has been narrowing.

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Figure 3 2011.1-2014.10 industrial investment growth

Four, the profitability of industrial enterprises is still not optimistic.

In the first three quarters, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 7.9% over the same period last year, respectively, down 2.1 and 5.6 percentage points from 1-8 months and the same period last year, the lowest growth rate since last year. The profit growth of main activities was 7.5%, down 2.1 percentage points from 1-8 months, 2.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year, but the growth rate continued to decline for nearly two months.

From a single month, in September, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 0.4% over the same period last year, though negative, but only a slight increase level, showing that the profitability of the current industrial enterprises is still not optimistic.

According to the industry, in September, the profit growth rate of electronics, electrical machinery and equipment, power and heat production and supply, automobile, chemical raw materials and chemical products rose more. These 5 industries have stimulated the profit growth of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in September by 3.9 percentage points.

Two. Analysis of favorable and unfavorable factors affecting industrial operation

(1) favorable factors

1, infrastructure investment plus a baseline economic growth.

Since the fourth quarter, the pressure of economic downward pressure has been increasing. The state has increased investment in infrastructure investment, providing an important support for stabilizing economic growth.

In recent months, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 17 railways and 5 airports with 21 capital construction projects in less than a month, with a total investment of nearly 770 billion yuan, and three nuclear power projects are expected to start in the near future. These projects will continue to start construction and accelerate construction, which will effectively hedge the impact of the decline in real estate investment on economic growth and provide the bottom line for economic growth in the next few months.

In addition, the plan of "one belt and one road" submitted to the State Council at the end of September is also expected to be approved in the near future. At the current APEC meeting, the theme of strengthening the all directional infrastructure and interconnection construction will promote the "one belt and one way" plan, and the future "one belt and one road" strategy will also usher in a new round of upsurge in infrastructure investment.

2, consumption continues to play a fundamental role in steady growth.

In October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 11.5% compared to nominal terms, though 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. However, the price deduction factor increased by 10.8% in real terms, unchanged from September, and continued to maintain steady growth. This year, the basic role of consumption in the process of steady growth has become increasingly prominent.

According to the products, the consumption of communication equipment increased by 42.3% over the same period last year, 12.8 percentage points faster than that in September, the highest since April 2012, and the rise of building decoration consumption was also accelerated by the recent rebound in the real estate market.

Consumption of household appliances, furniture, automobiles and petroleum products continued to slow down.

The continued growth of the real estate market in the future will lead to consumption of household appliances, furniture, building decoration and so on.

The shopping festival will also boost consumption growth. It is expected that the growth rate of consumption will rebound in the next two months.

At the same time, the State Council has issued a number of policies and measures recently to stimulate consumer vitality, boost consumer confidence and optimize the consumption environment. (promulgated the "opinions on accelerating sports industry development to promote sports consumption", promoting consumption in sports, promoting consumption expansion and upgrading, promoting consumption of information and other 6 major areas, issuing "opinions on strengthening imports", stimulating imports consumption, issuing "opinions on promoting healthy development of domestic trade circulation" and improving the consumption environment). With the gradual landing of policies and the introduction of supporting measures, it will also provide a new source of growth power for long-term stable growth of consumption.

3, the high cost of corporate financing has eased.

Since the second half of the year, the people's Bank of China and relevant departments have actively utilized innovative financial instruments to achieve directional easing, reduce the bid price of repo, guide interest rates downwards, standardize banking and financial services, and vigorously develop direct financing to reduce the financing costs of enterprises.

The implementation of China's monetary policy report in the third quarter of 2014 shows that, at the end of 9, the maturity yield of AA and corporate debt in the inter-bank market was 3 and 7, respectively, being 5.78% and 6.62%, 1.57 and 0.84 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. In September, the weighted average interest rate of loans for non-financial enterprises was 6.97%, which was 0.23 percentage points lower than that in December.

Driven by this, the interest expenses of industrial enterprises increased by 10.6% in the first three quarters of 2014, down 0.6 percentage points from the first half of the year.

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