Tan Yaling: US Dollar Stability And Wait-And-See Technology Depreciation Space And Opportunity

The highest point in a week is 81.01 points, the lowest point is 87.13 points. The US dollar was basically stable against the euro at $1.24, but it fell to $1.25 on Wednesday, and the US dollar depreciation trend is hard to change. The US dollar remained 117 yen against the yen, Monday's level of 118 yen, while the yen's depreciation trend remained unchanged, but the appreciation interval was limited. The US dollar remained unchanged at 1.57 US dollars against the pound. The US dollar remains unchanged at 0.96 francs against the Swiss Franc exchange rate, even though the gold vote of the Swiss Franc referendum has not changed the exchange rate level. The US dollar to the Canadian dollar exchange rate between 1.12-1.13 Canadian dollar, Canadian dollar depreciation expands. The US dollar to Australian dollar exchange rate in the 0.86-0.85 US dollar range, the Australian dollar depreciation continues, but the scope is not big. The US dollar remained unchanged at 0.78 dollars against the New Zealand dollar.

The basic situation of the foreign exchange market has a fixed force. The policy and strategy of the dollar have its own design and thinking. The choice of the exchange rate path has a deep thought and countermeasures. It is particularly worth observing the long-term factors and thinking about the complexity of the exchange rate variable and the exchange rate expectation.

1, the US dollar's downward trend in economic efficiency is clear. The biggest data concern in the foreign exchange market this week is the revision of the US third quarter index, which is further upward compared with the expected level and the previous value level, which highlights the firm strength of the steady recovery of the US economy. The index released by the US Department of Commerce shows that US economic growth reached 3.9% in the third quarter, higher than the revised revised downward 3.3% level, which is also higher than the 3.5% level of the previous value, indicating that the US economy will be very optimistic throughout the year. In the third quarter, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity, increased by 2.2%, exceeding the projected 1.8%. Durable goods consumption rose 8.7%, 14.1% in the second quarter, and 2.2% in non durable goods consumption, unchanged from the second quarter. Service consumption increased by 1.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the second quarter. Among them, the growth of entertainment products and automobiles, financial and insurance services all appeared the highest level this year. In particular, the sharp decline in international oil prices prompted the public's desire to buy cars. It is expected that the auto market will continue to grow for sixth consecutive years next year. This year, the US economy is running like roller coaster. Despite the impact of last winter's cold spell, the economy dropped to 2.1% in the first quarter, but the second quarter grew to 4.6%, and the third quarter remained high. This is the most powerful half year continuous growth in the US economic belt since 2003. But then the dollar index did not rise or fall, indicating the clarity of US dollar technology and strategy. The US economic performance also includes data from the US Department of Commerce. 10 orders for durable goods rose unexpectedly, and ended the two month decline since January 2014, thanks to the surge in defense spending. The overall figures show that commercial investment activities are generally weak, which means that the US economy is probably cooling down in the spring and summer. In other words, the US factory order month rate rose unexpectedly by 0.4% in October, and it is expected to drop by 0.6%, down from 1.3% in September to 0.9%. In November, the US consumer confidence index rose to 88.8 in November, reaching a new high in July 2007. The reversal of the US dollar exchange rate is a manifestation of market maturity and experience.

2, US dollars monetary policy Foreshadowing strategies affect technology. The focus of the week is already the orientation and expectation of the Fed's monetary policy. From the point of view of public opinion and officials, the Fed will raise interest rates ahead of schedule, especially the support of American economic confidence. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen has made clear that the Fed's rate hike will be determined according to the progress of US economic data, especially in the third quarter of the United States. More importantly, the deployment and layout of the Fed has been very beneficial. US dollar policy And will gradually benefit the foundation of US dollar hegemony. The favorable situation of comparative factors will make us dollar interest rate trend flexible considering time and progress.

3. Eurozone The economic base is complicated and the exchange rate is not autonomous. There are many negative factors in the euro area in one week. The overall perspective is the euro area inflation index 0.3%, deflation pressure is serious, the ECB policy is further strengthened, but the dilemma is difficult to change, and the operation of the European Central Bank is more difficult. The main reason lies in the severe economic division. Data showed that the annual inflation rate of the largest European economy in November dropped to its lowest level in nearly 5 years, suggesting that the risk of deflation in the euro area has not weakened. According to the data released by the German Federal Statistical Bureau on Thursday, the initial value of consumer price harmonic index (HICP) in Germany rose 0.5% in November compared with the same period last year, an increase of 0.7% in October and an increase of 0.6% in the market. The value of early November was unchanged from last month. This consolidated expectations for the European Central Bank to further relax monetary policy. The euro fell against the US dollar, ending the 3 consecutive upward trend. In addition, the European Commission data showed that the euro zone's economic confidence rose unexpectedly in November, indicating that the efforts of the European Central Bank to boost economic growth and inflation began to hit the key to business and consumers. In November, the euro zone's economic climate index rose to 100.8, the highest level since July, with a forecast value of 100.3 and a pre value of 100.7. The duality of Euro data gives the market and policy more difficult, but in fact, the economic uncertainty over the euro zone is even more cloudy. For example, in October, euro zone loans further shrank, while inflation remained a key indicator of economic fitness, including Spanish consumer prices falling for the fifth month in a row. In addition, there are political differences in euro zone countries, and the enforcement of orders on government spending and other issues has proved very difficult. The EU executive committee said that the 2015 budget of the euro zone's second and third largest economies, France and Italy, and Belgium, had a risk of violating EU regulations. The distance between France and Germany in the euro area is as serious as that between the north and the south. France has postponed reform, but Germany has promised not to overdraw. Complex contradictions and pressures are huge problems for the euro.

It is expected that the US dollar index's wait-and-see wandering and seeking adjustment is the main strategy. The purpose of US dollar depreciation will remain unchanged, and the opportunity of devaluation will require planning and momentum. It is estimated that the US dollar index will increase and the depreciation will continue.