Guo Shiliang: Is The Deposit Insurance System Coming? Is The Wolf Coming?

Is the deposit insurance system coming? Is the wolf coming?

Since the establishment of the deposit insurance system in 1993, China has made many preparations for the deposit insurance system. After 21 years, the deposit insurance system draft was officially released, which means that China will soon adopt the deposit insurance system.

In fact, the establishment of deposit insurance system is an important manifestation of the process of interest rate liberalization. In the financial crisis and near bankruptcy of the relevant banks and non bank financial institutions, the deposit insurance institutions need to provide arrangements such as liquidation. In this regard, in the process of deepening the interest rate marketization, the establishment of deposit insurance system will provide a safeguards for depositors.

Obviously, when the deposit insurance system comes into effect, it will bring certain influence to banks and other financial and non-financial institutions, and will also make a profound change to the traditional financial management methods of depositors.

At this point, a bank based financial institution needs to pay a certain amount of deposit insurance fees, thereby increasing the extra expenditure of banks and increasing the cost pressure borne by banks. On the other hand, after the introduction of the deposit insurance system, there will be a differential treatment of deposits below 500 thousand yuan and deposits of more than 500 thousand yuan. As a result, depositors with more than 500 thousand yuan need to consider certain financial risks, or further accelerate the transformation of depositors' financial management mode.

It is undeniable that under the background of the high cost of financing in the present society, the process of promoting the marketization of interest rates has reached an urgent stage. In the process of deepening the marketization of interest rates, the deposit insurance system will provide more protection for depositors, and it is also a necessary path in the process of interest rate liberalization.

It can be expected that the deposit insurance system will have a huge impact on China's economic transformation, and it will also be a powerful complement to the marketization of interest rates.

However, at the time of its launch, it will inevitably cause worries among depositors, or it will be considered a major attempt by the state to get rid of the burden of relief. However, in the face of the coming of the deposit insurance system, the author believes that this is not a prediction of "wolf coming", but a major reform in China's economic development and transformation, and it will also bring inestimable influence on related fields. The specific reasons are as follows.

First, the deposit insurance system helps to promote the marketization of interest rates, creating huge space for the development of private banks, Internet Finance and other fields.

Under the environment of further marketization of interest rates, we will gradually break the monopoly of traditional financial institutions and change the high cost of social financing in the past. At the same time, the deposit insurance system is an important supplement to the interest rate liberalization, and also pave the way for the rapid development of private banks, Internet Finance and other fields.

Second, the deposit insurance system promotes the further transformation of traditional financial institutions and promotes the healthy development of social economy.

In the past, traditional financial institutions mainly relied on interest rate income and other forms to obtain huge profits. Under the monopolistic privileges, it also suppressed the innovation and development of the society and pushed up the financing cost of the society.

Nowadays, under the background of further deepening of interest rate marketization, it is inevitable that the traditional financial institutions will essentially transform themselves. In this environment, the traditional financial institutions will emphasize the competition between services and security in the future instead of relying on monopoly privileges to achieve huge profits.

Third, the introduction of deposit insurance system indicates a further reduction of social risk-free interest rate.

"More or less" is a long-standing social problem. To solve this problem, we must speed up the marketization of interest rates and break the monopoly of long-term privileges of traditional financial institutions.

This year is the first year to break the rigid payment. At the same time, with the promotion of the effect of the balance catfish, China's interest rate marketization process has also achieved the trend of "before and after", basically in line with the trend of interest rate marketization in some mature countries.

In the future, when the deposit insurance system is launched, it will further reduce the burden of national responsibility and gradually reduce this heavy burden to meet the rationalized competition in the market. Therefore, this will lay a foundation for the future risk-free interest rate reduction in the future.

Finally, from the perspective of stock market, the introduction of the deposit insurance system is a good medium and long-term benefit for the stock market.

On the one hand, the deposit insurance system will further promote the large relocation of deposits, and at the same time, breaking the rigid payment of products such as trust will bring these funds back to the stock market, or Internet finance. On the other hand, the deposit insurance system promotes interest rates. Marketization In depth, it has a positive impact on the banking sector in the medium and long term.

In spite of this problem, deposits Insurance system It will affect the short-term profits of bank shares due to the extra expenses of deposit insurance expenses, but from the current situation, the policy will provide hedging for banks as the cost pressures of banks increase. And in the context of high deposit reserve ratio and the end of the year, it also accelerated the expectation of the central bank to drop the benchmark.

In addition, interest rate The further promotion of marketization has also brought about a turning point for the listed banks. In the future, the space for listed banks to rely on monopolistic privileges to make profiteering will be greatly reduced, and service oriented, enhancing the sense of social responsibility and competitiveness of listed banks will have a profound positive impact on the listed banks.

To sum up, the author Guo Shiliang believes that the deposit insurance system is not "wolf coming", but has brought immeasurable influence to the market. In a word, in the process of deepening the marketization of interest rates, the monopoly privilege has weakened and the market rationalization competition has been strengthened, and banks have also returned to the essence of service and security. In addition, while the cost of social financing is decreasing, it also accelerates the transfer of funds to the stock market, and the long-term trend of the stock market.