Chen Weijun: Unveiling The Mystery Of The Stock Market Boom

First, the background of economic reform is the foundation of the stock market.

Up to now,

Few areas of reform have not been mentioned.

In recent years, there have been some plans for electricity price reform. Compared to the five major power groups jointly signed by the State Council a few months ago, the situation is quite different. It can be said that as long as anti-corruption is in place, interest groups will be shaken and the reform will be much more successful.

Many reforms have already come to light.

Shanghai and Hong Kong pass is a magic prescription. From a small point of view, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, as well as the future Hong Kong and Hong Kong, have imported fresh blood to A shares from Hongkong, which has extensive international capital background. From a large point of view, it can actually control the capital of Shanghai and Hong Kong or Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong. In a larger way, it is possible to establish Shanghai Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shanghai's "X X" and "deep X links".

It is not only external capital that has been aroused, but also has led Chinese social capital to the stock market. Especially after the withdrawal of the huge real estate market, these huge sums of money have seen the attractive price of A shares.

It is also an important reason why the state intends to guide insurance funds to enter the market.

I have pointed out in the early commentary that the insurance funds of the United States are also entering the stock market in the present context, and they no longer carry the burden of "making ends meet".

It can be said that the stock market stabilization caused by the insurance fund's bottom reading has played a crucial role in the recent rise to the carrier class stock.

Third, the employee stock ownership system pushed by this government has stimulated the enthusiasm of ordinary employees.

Employee stock ownership system allows ordinary employees to get the corresponding shares at such a low price, plus the equity incentive system of listed companies, and ordinary employees have enjoyed the sweetness of "primitive stocks". With the rise of stock prices in the future, listed companies will become more and more wealthy. Their greater significance is to bypass the Middle Income Trap and complete the ranks of gold collar and white-collar workers entering the middle stage.

Fourth, the reform of state-owned enterprises brings great opportunities.

Starting from the first shot of Sinopec to start the reform of state-owned enterprises, the state-owned listed companies have launched a reform plan, allowing private capital to enter the state-owned enterprises and the ultra low share price, attracting a large number of private capital into the state-owned enterprises, forming a unique Chinese mixed ownership enterprise.

The capital, technology and management strength of state-owned enterprises, and the flexibility of private capital, the newly born mixed enterprises are more dynamic and competitive.

And huge private capital also directly promoted the rise of share prices.

(Chen Weijun, a career investor and commentator of commentator), has twenty years of experience in investing in stocks and futures.

Fifth, tradition + technological innovation spawned economic vitality.

This government has recently pushed forward technological innovation, and has given policy encouragement and support, coupled with vigorous support for small and micro enterprises, thus forming a good situation for all the people to start their own businesses, innovate and drive new businesses.

Sixth, the reform of financial market is imminent.

Financial marketization reform may be the most difficult area in China's economic reform at present. In the early stage of financial market reform, basic work has been gradually put in place, such as the re listing of treasury bond futures, the promotion of asset securitization (involving banks and securities dealers), and the gradual extension of interest rate marketization (although the deposit interest rate marketization has not yet been fully implemented, but the deposit insurance system has been basically established).

At present, the central bank is taking some pitional measures to do a good job in market-oriented interest rate reform, such as lowering the rate of repo, especially recently, in order to solve the problem of high corporate loans, it adopted a rate cut operation at the end of November.

In fact, as early as September 15th, when I explained the macroeconomic data in August, I pointed out that in the future, the use of price instruments is almost the only way, because quantitative tools are not yet available and there is no shortage of funds in society.

In addition, the introduction of the preferred stock issuing system has first made the Agricultural Bank (601288) fresh, and there will be more high-quality companies issuing preferred shares in the future, which has made a beneficial attempt for China's A shares to keep up with the developed countries' stock market.

I believe that in the near future, the marketization of interest rates will be fully launched, and interest rate futures will also debut.

From the development history of US financial futures, the introduction of interest rate futures soon becomes the main role of the financial market.

China will not be an exception. Interest rate futures will also become the main focus of the futures market.

What is particularly worth mentioning is that the central bank's interest rate cut has become a direct fuse for the stock market in the last two weeks.

From the analysis of market watchers, they generally believe that China has entered the interest rate reduction channel. Although the central bank denied that it had entered a continuous interest rate cut the day after the announcement of the rate cut announcement, the market obviously did not see it this way.

Because China's benchmark interest rate is high in the world's major countries, moderate interest rate cuts will reduce the pressure of hot money inflow.

Another implication of the central bank's interest rate cut is that interest rate cuts will generally reduce the cost of corporate loans and repayment pressure, and substantially raise the level of corporate profits. And the expectation of possible entry into the interest rate cut will also lead to a general increase in earnings. This is a direct incentive for the stock market to continue to boom.

Since China's inflation peaked in 1996, the government began to cut interest rates. Since then, the young A shares have been in a bull market for many years until the middle of 2001.

Some people may ask, why is the macro economy still in decline and the stock market will go up? Is the stock market not a barometer of China's macro-economy? This issue has been discussed in the comments by the author. Futures or stock market are the barometer of macro-economy. I think futures are the barometer of macro-economy, and the stock market does not fully reflect the macro economy.

A closer look at the current futures market commodity prices and macroeconomic trends makes it easy to draw a conclusion that futures are a barometer of macroeconomics, because commodity prices reflect the needs of enterprises, directly related to macroeconomic, while stock prices are driven by different factors, such as restructuring, capital push and so on. Of course, the stock market can generally reflect the macroeconomic trend, but its influence factors are more complicated.

In addition, there may be a time difference between the stock market and the futures market. Generally speaking, when the economy has just recovered, the stock market first responds. Then, with the improvement of the profitability of enterprises, the demand for enterprises has begun to rise significantly.

Therefore, from the aspect of financial reform, it has a strong positive significance to the stock market and even the futures market.