Ye Tan: "Mama" Is Too Busy.

In December 10th, the A share market was booming. Cai Feng, a strategist at Yuan Yuan Securities, said in an interview with Bloomberg telephone that market rumors that the government injected 400 billion yuan into the interbank market through CDB today. If this rumor is true, it is through the CDB to ease the shortage of interbank funds.

Market confidence is very fragile. In December 10th, China's CPI grew by 1.4% in November, a 5 year low. In November, PPI fell by 2.7%, declining for 33 consecutive months. The real economy is in a deflationary state. At that time, any typhoon in the capital market would be enough to raise the typhoon.

The bond market has a direct impact on capital tightness. In December 8th, the central bank issued the notice on measures to strengthen the risk management of corporate bond repurchase. It will not accept the application for new corporate bonds repurchase qualification from now on. For the corporate bonds that have acquired the repurchase qualification, it is required that "no additional storage can be temporarily added". Only "debt rating of AAA rated according to the principle of" which is lower "is the main rating, and the main rating is AA (above) (the main rating is AA level, and its rating outlook should be positive or stable) corporate bonds will not be affected.

The announcement raised waves. According to the latest data from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the AAA of the debt held by the exchange trustee has only 195 coupons AA and above (except the main AA), with a balance of less than 500 billion yuan. 500 billion yuan into the Treasury, as a half of the total, joint credit had previously on corporate bonds, in the vote, short fuse and non-public directional debt financing tool collectively referred to the generalized "city investment bonds" has been measured. According to the results of the 2013 government debt audit, as of the end of June 2013, the balance of municipal debt invested into government debt was 1 trillion and 110 billion yuan, accounting for 48.46% of the city's investment balance at the end of June 2013.

In December 9th, Wind data showed that after the new regulation of the certificate of deposit was issued, 43 of the 392 city investment bonds affected by the CBRC fell by more than 1%, and 10 tickets fell by more than 5%. Among them, county and county-level city platform issued bonds accounted for 25%, prefecture level city platform issued bonds accounted for 51.5%.

Bond issuance and repurchase is a low risk means to stretch leverage. The amount of bond repo has declined, not only the bond market has been impacted, but also the local finance has been threatened. In December 10th, in addition to the 9 month period, other lending rates were rising.

It's not hard to understand why the central bank has to ease. Tight funds Mood, because the market has frozen, from bond market to stock market, both fell.

"Mom" has been very busy recently, not only to save the fire of bonds launched by the company, but also to look at the RMB exchange rate.

In December 8th, the renminbi was on the spot against the US dollar. exchange rate A sharp drop of 225 points, in December 9th, the spot rate of RMB intraday plunge more than 300 points again. The dollar closed at 6.1855, a 4 month low, a 0.21% decline compared with the previous trading day. Since the central bank expanded the exchange rate to 2% in March, the average daily volatility of RMB has increased from 0.04% last year to 0.12%. The central parity of RMB has risen and the spot exchange rate has declined. This indicates that the devaluation is a market judgement, rather than an excessive depreciation of the renminbi. The US dollar has not raised interest rates, and the RMB exchange rate has fallen sharply. What will the market do if the US dollar really raises interest rates in the second half of next year?

In the face of tension, Mother in law "It's coming out again. The Central Bank of China raised the central parity of the RMB exchange rate for several consecutive days. In December 10th, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market opened at 6.1894, close to the 6.20 pass, and then increased. As at 11:50, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1829, an appreciation of 26 basis points. In December 10th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1195, up 36 basis points from 6.1231 in December 9th, and refreshed in the past 9 months for four consecutive days. This shows that the central bank's attitude does not allow the RMB to depreciate greatly and lose confidence.

The "central mother" is too busy to watch the bank's funds in a short while. In a moment, we must plug the plug in the central bank, and see in a flash that the exchange rate will depreciate sharply and we must maintain the exchange rate.